2008 Oscar Predictions- Duncan

So it's all come down to this, it seems. Never before have I seen all of the Best Picture nominees, heading into the ceremony. I've read awardsdaily.com, I've read NYT's The Carpetbagger, I've pored over charts and figures, and now I have to put myself on record.

Last year, I went 17 for 24- I missed best animated short because I should have went with my gut, not the experts. I missed Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy because I should have used common sense. I missed Happy Feet over Cars because I underestimated penguins. Otherwise, I missed some unpredictable upsets in cinematography and Foreign Language that nobody saw coming.

What will happen on Sunday? Most of the major categories are locks, except the two actresses. The technical awards are always anybody's guess. And then there are the complete wild cards like documentary short, and best original song.

Well, here's my best guess.

Best Picture

The Winner: No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Michael Clayton

Just for the record, we're doing "Dark Horse" picks this year as potential spoilers, but that doesn't mean I think Michael Clayton has a real chance. Nothing has dominated the awards since like No Country since Return of the King, and we all remember what happened there. There's just no derailing it, but if there were some bizarro world situation where No Country and There Will Be Blood split the vote, then Clayton could emerge from the dust on the strength of it's triple nominated cast.

The love for Michael Clayton has baffled some- I think the Academy misses non-Ocean's movies Steven Soderbergh so much that they'll take the nearest substitute. But I think it's great to see an atmospheric thriller recognized in major categories, which wouldn't have been unusual at all forty years ago.

The Rest:
Juno seems like a paper tiger to me, a gimme nomination for a crowd favorite. I liked it much, much more than it's frequent comparison partner, Little Miss Sunshine, but I have no fear of it stealing the Oscar this year- LMS seemed like a real possibility in 07.

Atonement is definitely an odd case- everyone outside America is head over heels for it-we thought it was okay. I wonder if it was marketed differently (and more effectively) overseas- the overall lukewarm reaction here seems to be from people that expected a sweeping, epic romance, and got instead a lighter, quicker meditation on nuance and authorship. Maybe if people could talk about what I mean by that without giving the ending away, the promotional campaign for the film could have been more direct and original than the standard Knightley/McAvoy looks of longing posters.

There Will Be Blood is brilliant, and definitely the second best film of the five, but I get the feeling that if No Country weren't around, there's no way it would have the award sewn up- the third act has proved too crazy and divisive to make it a real front-runner.

Best Director

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

On the strength of his Golden Globe win, and the general feeling that Diving Bell got the shaft, I was leaning toward predicting a victory for Schnabel here. But his general antipathy for the Awards circuit hasn't helped his image, and the Coens took home the all important DGA award.

The Rest:
Tony Gilroy (Clayton) has the makings of an auteur, but is still a first timer and a longshot. Paul Thomas Anderson (Blood) is earning a reputation as a meticulous filmmaker that can create breathtaking films, but I think his achievement is being far too overshadowed by his star- if he returns to the ensemble format for his next film, I could imagine him easily winning a trophy. Reitman (Juno)? I keep forgetting he was even nominated. Sorry, but it's true.

Best Actor

The Winner: Daniel Day Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: George Clooney- Michael Clayton

Little left to say about this one, really. I sometimes wonder if I'll ever go back to the way I was before last year, when I started following awards news and categories with clear favorites like this one (and Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren last year) lost any surprise. But then I remember how much I love this stuff. Even Clooney admits his loss is a foregone conclusion.

The Rest:
Personally, I was always baffled by Viggo Mortensen's lack of respect for taking what JRR Tolkien wrote as a horribly flat character and making him come alive. Maybe this nomination (for Eastern Promises) is for that trilogy, really. Tommy Lee Jones I'm sure did a wonderful job, but it seems like he got some guilt votes from all the academy members that didn't want to see In the Valley of Elah and get bummed out. Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) gets a nomination for coolness- he won't actually have a chance until he stars in a "serious" film, which is a shame.

Best Actress

The Winner: Julie Christie- Away From Her
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard- La Vie En Rose

But then again, there are still races that are too close to call- But I think Christie breaks a virtual tie with Cotillard on name recognition alone. The surprise adapted screenplay nomination for Away From Her suggests that it's high-profile enough to secure this award.

The Rest:
Laura Linney (The Savages) seems destined for one of those career recognition Oscars in the supporting category someday- she's always a contender, never quite at the top. Ellen Page (Juno) was in a comedy, and you know the rules on that. Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) is the only one here with no shot at all- nobody wins Best Actress for a critically panned flop (I'm sure Dave will look something up to prove me wrong on that, though.)

Supporting Actor

The Winner: Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford

I've heard some complaints that Bardem is going to take home a statue for mostly being silent, but I don't think that's the case- just because sociopathy is a lack of recognizable human emotions doesn't mean that it's easy to pull off. If it was just someone sleepwalking through a wordless part, the character would be boring, instead of terrifying. Casey Affleck would have a much better chance for his nervy, jangling role in Assassination if, you know, anybody saw it.

The Rest:
Hal Holbrook is apparently a respected film veteran, and kudos to him, but it's quite clear that no one had any patience for Into the Wild for whatever reason. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) just looked surly for a while- this nomination baffles me- really? Someone in an Aaron Sorkin scripted movie was irritable and made wisecracks? No way! And Tom Wilkinson was the heart and soul of Michael Clayton, but I guess he was out-crazied by Bardem.

Supporting Actress
The Winner: Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There
Dark Horse: Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone

I was too lazy to do the "will win" and "should win" distinctions (like Dave did), as this is really the only likely winner I would strongly disagree with. Really? She plays a man, that's awesome. Who cares?

I think it has a lot to do with impersonating someone, versus making an audience believe in a character from scratch. Anne Proulx, in her steaming-mad indictment of the Crash-Brokeback fiasco, touched upon this much more eloquently:

Hollywood loves mimicry, the conversion of a film actor into the spittin' image of a once-living celeb. But which takes more skill, acting a person who strolled the boulevard a few decades ago and who left behind tapes, film, photographs, voice recordings and friends with strong memories, or the construction of characters from imagination and a few cold words on the page? I don't know. The subject never comes up.

This issue might have tipped my choice in Best Actress (Edith Piaf v. fictional character) as well.

The Rest:
Can we all agree to stop nominating old people who are only in two scenes of a film just because they're old? Hey, good for Ruby Dee (American Gangster), I wish her all the best and have nothing but respect for her career. But she barely has time for one note in her cameo role, let alone the several notes that Amy Ryan hit in multiple scenes. Saiorse Ronan holds the first half of Atonement together, but is spared the more challenging scenes of harrowing guilt that the other two actresses in her role had to deal with. Tilda Swinton would be another worthy winner, as she was more fleshed out into a character that the eponymous hero of Michael Clayton.

Best Original Screenplay

The Winner: Diablo Cody- Juno
Dark Horse: Brad Bird- Ratatouille

It would be hard to send home the only Blockbuster among the best picture nominees with absolutely nothing. And since it has zero chance in picture and director, and a teensy sliver of a chance in actress, it seems to have been decided long ago that Cody's script is the place to honor it. Personally, I enjoyed the film, but it seems hard to credit the script without mentioning that it takes a great cast to make all that slang palatable. And it's unique and all, sure, but how is it that much more impressive than, say, Clueless? Brad Bird's newest film is the most lauded animated feature since Beauty and the Beast, and makes me nervous about predicting all five categories it appears in. Everyone loves this film, especially the critical community.

The Rest:
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) and Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) team with Cody for a record number of female screenplay nominees, and more power to all three- Juno seems to be drawing all of the girl power vote though, despite Jenkins' deft human touches. Michael Clayton is tightly written by Tony Gilroy, but the strength of the film is more in the atmosphere and the performances- corrupt businesses and shady lawyers aren't exactly anything new.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Ronald Harwood- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Coens stand to win four statues apiece if everything goes their way, and they're the safest bet in this category, even though the actual writing of the screenplay was mostly done for them by Cormac McCarthy (he doesn't even use quotation marks- they could just scan most of the book and hand it out to people, for crying out loud). Hardwood, a recent winner for The Pianist, had the much more complex job of translating a slim, objectively sparse memoir of a paralyzed man into a sweeping, subjective movie experience - The BAFTA's went with Harwood, but they also went with Atonement for Best Picture...

The Rest:
Sarah Polley (Away From Her) surprised everyone, even one of the movie's biggest fans in yours truly, with a glad-to-be-here fifth nomination in this category. Christopher Hampton (Atonement) also had a weighty task in trimming Ian McEwan's pensive, thoughtful novel of reminiscence into a film with a rapt momentum. Paul Thomas Anderson has himself admitted that the second half of There Will Be Blood has little, if anything to do with Upton Sinclair's Oil!- so while a great script it has little chance at this Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

The Winner: Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Persepolis

It seemed like it would be a tough call, but honestly Ratatouille has been slamming the competition nearly everywhere else- Persepolis came out a little late in the states to turn back the tide, I'm afraid.

Best Documentary Feature

The Winner: No End in Sight
Dark Horse: Taxi to the Dark Side

All about Iraq this year- No End in Sight for the win. But my dark horse is currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of course, I haven't seen any of these, so I could be way off.

Best Foreign Film

The Winner: The Counterfeiters
Dark Horse: Katyn

All anyone knows for sure here is that the loser in this category is international cinema- these nominations make little sense. But the whole Academy votes for this category, so I browsed the subjects and found that Austria's The Counterfeiters is the true story of a Jewish counterfeiter forced to make foreign currency for th Nazis while in a concentration camp. And if you don't think dealing with true stories from the Holocaust is a surefire bet for the win, then you obviously have never watched the Oscars before.

Achievement in Editing

The Winner: Christopher Rouse- The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark Horse: "Roderick Jaynes"- No Country For Old Men

A head scratcher here- The Bourne Ultimatum took the Guild Award, but the traditional march toward Best Picture for No Country would give the Coens( and their pseudonym) the award here. I'm going with the guild in a close call, since they are nearly always right, but if I'm wrong I'll be pissed.

Achievement in Cinematography

The Winner: Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Dark Horse: Roger Deakins- No Country for Old Men

It seems weird to have to pick between Deakins work on No Country and Elswit's on Blood, since the landscape and pallet of the two films aren't very distinguishable to a non-DOP like myself. But since this guild is not a very accurate predictor, it's hard to give Elswit's victory there much weight. My gut is telling me that Janus Kaminski, the prohibitive favorite for his long, uncut shots from Children of Men last year, can't be ignored twice in a row.

Achievement in Makeup

The Winner: Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald- La Vie En Rose
Dark Horse: Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji- Norbit

I'm hoping for the Rose team here based on their BAFTA win recently. Otherwise, with Rick Baker's resume (Six (6!) Makeup Oscars, including the first one in 1981), Norbit may actually win an Academy Award. But seeing as Norbit pretty much lost Eddie Murphy an Oscar for being in theaters during last year's ceremony, I don't think that'll happen.

Achievement in Costuming

The Winner: Jacqueline Durran- Atonement
Dark Horse: Colleen Atwood- Sweeney Todd

Something is telling me that the green dress from Atonement is the only really memorable costume this year- Marit Allen is a threat for La Vie En Rose, but I think Atwood, a recent winner for Memoirs of a Geisha is the next likely bet.

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Winner: Farrar/Benza/Earl/Frazier- Transfomers
Dark Horse: Knoll/Gibson/Hickel/Frazier- Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End

Another agreed-upon lock- I guess they spent a lot of time making robots into cars. Otherwise, the team from Pirates won last year (that Frazier is the same guy, by the way, John Frazier- he's looking as good as Daniel Day Lewis and the Coen's for a statue).

Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Winner: O'Connell/Russell/Devlin- Transformers
Dark Horse: Thom/Semanick/Kane- Ratatouille

Based on recent history, this guild is usually wrong- sorry, No Country team. I say it falls to Kevin O'Connell and his team- now that he has outdone Randy Newman and been nominated for his 20th Oscar without a victory, I think he'll finally get let off the hook. Nobody can be that cruel- right, sound mixers of the world?

Achievement in Sound Editing

The Winner: Silvers/Thom- Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Hopkins/Van Der Ryn- Transformers

The two Best Picture nominees in this category are actually the two without past Oscar wins on the sound teams. I'm saying this will go to the two guys who won a few years ago for The Incredibles- Ratatouille can't walk away with just one Oscar, can it?

Achievement in Art Direction

The Winner: Ferreti/Lo Schiavo- Sweeney Todd
Dark Horse: Greenwood/Spencer- Atonement

This category tends to go to exotic and distinctive contenders, from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to Dick Tracy- and given Sleepy Hollow's win in 1999, I think Sweeney Todd has the best chance for the statue here. The Art Director's Guild went with both The Golden Compass and There Will Be Blood, but they're wrong as often as they're right. Plus, if I didn't disagree with the consensus on something, then my opinion wouldn't really mean anything, would it?

Best Animated Short

The Winner: My Love
Dark Horse: I Met the Walrus

See here.

Best Live Action Short

The Winner: At Night
Dark Horse: The Mozart of Pickpockets

This category I reserve the right to change after I see the shorts tomorrow night.

Best Documentary Short

The Winner: Sari's Mother
Dark Horse: Freeheld

See here.

Best Original Score

The Winner: Dario Marianelli- Atonement
Dark Horse: Michael Giacchino- Ratatouille

A seeming lock for Marianelli since Greenwood's There Will Be Blood score wasn't eligible. But again, Ratatouille scares me in every category.

Best Original Song

The Winner: Hansard/Irglova- "Falling Slowly" from Once
Dark Horse: Menken/Schwartz- "So Close" from Enchanted

The most important award for me. See here.

But the hands down most awesome part about this year's Oscar ceremony is knowing that Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova are going to perform "Falling Slowly" in front of 40 million viewers, and then watch the sales of Once and its soundtrack skyrocket.

So that it's. All 24. I'll be watching on Sunday, and cursing like a sports fan when the announcements go against me. How this post, which could have been just a list, grew to nearly 3,000 words I have no idea. But thanks for reading.

My totals for, the curious- No Country wins 4, Ratatouille, Atonement, and Transformers win 2, and then 14 other films (including Juno, Diving Bell, and Blood) win one apiece. A big goose egg for Michael Clayton, alas.

2008 Oscar Predictions- Dave

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Atonement

No Country for Old Men has been the dominant picture of the year. It has won more awards than any other film. It was number one on more top ten lists than any other film. It has more four star reviews than any other film. It is running at a higher “fresh” percentage than any other of the best picture nominees. Basically, No Country for Old Men has set itself up to be the movie to beat on Oscar night, and I do not think any other movie will come close.

No Country for Old Men offers the most holistic movie of the five nominees. It is perfect in every way that a movie can be. Juno and Michael Clayton are both heralded for their strong script and top-notch performances. There Will Be Blood has the standout performance of the year, which may detract from the movie as a whole because Daniel Day-Lewis is the movie.

This leaves my dark horse: Atonement. Atonement won at the BAFTA’s and the Golden Globes. While the BAFTA’s may not be a good indicator of Best Picture winners (Last year, The Queen won the same award) it may have the British vote. Adding on the Hollywood Foreign Press voting it Best Picture over No Country for Old Men may sway some of the voters’ viewpoint.

I have seen Atonement twice and it held up well the second time around. This could be the movie’s reward as it was snubbed for actor, actress, director, and – arguably – another supporting actress nomination.

However, I still would take No Country for Old Men to the bank.

Best Achievement in Directing

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Tony Gilroy, Jason Reitman, and Paul Thomas Anderson have their nominations as their reward, leaving three men to battle it out for Best Director.

The Coen Brothers have an outstanding film that is being toted as a masterpiece. Schnabel has an amazing film that benefits from his singular vision. Who will win this clash of the titans?

I think the Coen Brothers will garner the award because No Country for Old Men is a juggernaut and they won the DGA and BAFTA, while Schnabel’s landmark win has been the Golden Globe. Plus, I do not know if the Academy would like to reward a man who said he was going to wear pajamas to the award show.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

When Daniel Day-Lewis wins, I would like his speech to go like this: “Ladies and gentlemen… I’ve traveled over half our globe to be here tonight. I couldn’t get away sooner because my new BAFTA was coming in at my London home and I had to see about it. That award is now glistening on my mantle and is paying me a $50,000 bonus. I have one Oscar already, and sixty other awards. So, ladies and gentlemen… If I say I’m an actor you will agree. You made a great choice here, but bear you in mind; I may not have won if I was not careful. Out of all the men that beg for this award, maybe one in twenty will be actors; the rest will be amateurs – men trying to get between you and the studio. Even if one gets lucky, and has the skills, he will know nothing about acting and they will rely on their co-stars. This is the way it works. Ladies and gentlemen, in conclusion, I say, I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE! SLURP! I DRINK IT UP!”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Should Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Best Dark Horse Chance: Marion Cotillard – La Môme (also known as La Vie En Rose)

Julie Christie’s graceful and sorrowful work in Away from Her is the best female performance of the year. Similar to Daniel Day-Lewis the movie is enveloped in her character to a point that everyone – save Gordon Pinsent – in the movie gets lost. Her performance was that good.

Marion Cotillard has earned some press for her transformation into Edith Piaf. However, she does not seem to have the same heartbreaking rendition as Christie.

How Cate Blanchett snuck into this grouping, I will never know. Congratulations to Laura Linney and Ellen Page, but your time is not now. I believe these two actresses will be rewarded some day for their work.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild

Javier Bardem, get your speech ready.

Nobody has a shot in this category because Bardem has dominated this category at every award show, in every possible way.

I choose Hal Holbrook at the dark horse because he may pull an “Alan Arkin” and win for a lifetime of work.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Should Win: Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Best Dark Horse Chance: Ruby Dee – American Gangster

The most wide open race at the Oscars this year. There are a lot of memorable performances and all of these women have won multiple awards along the way, except for Atonement’s Saoirse Ronan.

I read in Entertainment Weekly that Tilda Swinton had the best chance after her BAFTA win. I disagree with this. Even though her role in Michael Clayton is strong, I can not remember a true “Oscar scene” for her. Maybe I missed it, but there was not that moment where I said, “This is where she wins it.” Though her work throughout the film was steadfast, it almost seemed too workmanlike.

Cate Blanchett should probably not win for I’m Not There. The notion of a female playing a man – or vice versa – is not Oscar worthy, challenging, or taboo as it once was. She may have the most nuanced performance out of any player in the field, but Amy Ryan’s performance in Gone Baby Gone was more daunting and engaging. Ryan’s performance wraps you in her initial hysteria, but you really do not like her by the end of the film. That alone makes her more worthy in my book than Blanchett. Disappointedly, I do not think Oscar voters will share my sentiments.

The outsider, who is gaining momentum, is Ruby Dee. I think she has the best chance to steal it away from everyone because of a long career and a true matriarch in American Gangster.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Will Win: Diablo Cody – Juno
Should Win: Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Best Dark Horse Chance: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, and Jim Capobianco – Ratatouille

This award has been locked up for weeks by Cody.

Gilroy’s complex script is superior to Cody’s in its depth and vocabulary. However, Cody’s work pulls on the heart far more than any scene in Michael Clayton.

Jenkins and Oliver were rewarded with nominations for their uniquely touching scripts, but that is all they will receive.

This leaves the crew from Ratatouille for the dark horse. A warm script that was much better than people initially gave it credit for in pre-production.

Ultimately this is Diablo Cody’s award.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

Sometimes a category should be decided by how hard the people work in it. It almost seems unfair that the Coen Brothers did the least amount of work this year, and will win the Oscar for adapted screenplay.

Paul Thomas Anderson has received three nominations for his writing already, but has gotten overlooked every time. This should be his year, but the power of No Country for Old Men will overpower his gloriously bleak script.

Christopher Hampton and Ronald Harwood received nominations because their works are powerful and innovative, but in a crowded field, they will be lost behind the Coen Brothers.

Sarah Polley’s nomination was her reward this year, but it is a promising start to her new avenue in filmmaking.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

With the exception of There Will Be Blood, this category’s nominees would be winners in any other year. It is that crowded of a field this year.

Roger Deakins has never won an Oscar. Never. To me, this was the most shocking thing I read about Oscar history. Of all the movies he has shot, all the technologies he has been on the ground floor of, and he has never won… Until this year. This is his year because of an outstanding career and for the dazzling cinematography of No Country for Old Men.

However, I personally do not think this was Deakins’ best work. It was not even his best work this year. While his work on the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford is more harrowing, No Country for Old Men has the broader audience and appeal.

Seamus McGarvey did a wonderful job on Atonement and I expect him to win an award one day. He did have a “money” moment, the Dunkirk five minute tracking shot, but that will not be enough in this year.

This leaves multiple winner, Janusz Kaminski. He actually has the best work of the year, but will be overlooked because of Deakins and the fact that he has two Oscars at home all ready. This is truly a shame for his inventive and beautiful work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Achievement in Editing

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild and There Will Be Blood do not benefit from short running times. The long, purposeful silences in both films may not get them the recognition for the pacing of the film. However, There Will Be Blood was one of the quickest three hour movies I have sat through in recent memory.

No Country for Old Men will get the award because – as Brokeback Mountain found out – it is difficult to NOT win Best Picture without winning Best Editing. Ultimately, the Coen Brothers will walk away with four statuettes from the evening.

However, the two interesting movies are The Bourne Ultimatum and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Bourne Ultimatum’s frenetic pacing makes it the most exciting movie of the year. The editing is one of those elements in the movie that make the movie excel beyond a solid action film into an excellent one. Plus, it won the BAFTA and two other editing awards.

I feel that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly cannot be discounted because it has the most unique editing, which is why I think it has a chance to pull off an upset. The insertion of black panels, while not revelation, is an addition to the film, similar to the overall editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

American Gangster and There Will Be Blood are not remembered for their fine art direction. They are period recreations, where American Gangster uses existing places and There Will Be Blood is sparsely decorated.

The Golden Compass falls into a similar mold of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but without the same freshness of it all.

The two real competitors in this category will be Atonement and Sweeney Todd. Atonement has glamorous set direction and an epic scale to match. Sweeney Todd features a grim world created by past Oscar winners. Ultimately, I think Atonement will win the category for the re-creation of the evacuation of Dunkirk.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Costume design tends to be awarded to a movie where the scope of the costumes is awe inspiring or for costumes that are truly out of this world. Sweeney Todd and La Môme do not have the overly bizarre element working for them, nor do they have a wide scope.

While Across the Universe may have the unique element working for it, there is not one costume that I distinctly remember.

Atonement does have one of the most memorable – and talked about – costumes of the year in Keira Knightley’s green dress. I believe the period drama wins another technical award for its expansive work.

Similarly, this is the same reason why I think Elizabeth: The Golden Age has an outside chance.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Best Dark Horse Chance: Norbit

La Môme does not have anything spectacular about its make up. They may have had a difficult time working on Marion Cotillard’s hair, but nothing truly stands out for me.

Norbit has a chance because of two words: Rick Baker. He is nominated for this award every year it seems.

The creators behind The Pirates of the Caribbean lost last year, but will make up (HA!) for it this year. Granted, they did not reinvent the wheel, but their work is more admirable and difficult than the other two.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: 3:10 to Yuma

Dario Marianelli’s exquisite and singular score for Atonement make it the clear leader in this category, seeing as Jonny Greenwood was not eligible.

Michael Clayton’s haunting score, The Kite Runner’s somber music, and the glee of Ratatouille do not compare to Atonement’s vibrant and dramatic score.

This leaves the lone outside, 3:10 to Yuma. While energetic and engaging, it lacks the presence of Atonement’s score. This is why I feel Atonement will win this category with minimal problems.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Will Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Should Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

There should be no competition in this category. The only way that Once loses this category is if the Academy has a fit about its own ridiculous nomination rules and disqualifies it. Otherwise, this category is a slam dunk.

Best Sound Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

While Transformers had a plethora of sound effects and did an excellent job at it, it should not win. However, it will because of those aspects. No Country for Old Men was much more reliant on its sound to create a behind-the-camera effect that enhances the movie, like the editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

3:10 to Yuma is grand in the scope of its sound, but not much more. Ratatouille does a good job, but that is merely in terms of an animated film.

I penciled The Bourne Ultimatum in because it already has won some awards for its sound effects, but I do not think the Academy will look at that as a positive.

Best Sound Effects Editing

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

See above. I really can not explain this category.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers
Best Dark Horse Chance: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

This should be an easy category because Transformers possessed a lot of special effects, which were really the star of the movie. It took over 80 hours per frame to create a scene in which a Transformer appears.

The Golden Compass will get thrown by the wayside as people are reminded too much of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but the effects are nowhere near the level that those two franchises are.

As for Pirates of the Caribbean, they present the best dark horse chance. Why them? Oscar history likes repeat winners in this category. Recall 2001 through 2003? Lord of the Rings won every year. Did Fellowship of the Ring deserve the award? Yes. Did The Two Towers deserve the award? Yes, it expounded upon the wondrous effects in Fellowship with the inclusion of Gollum. Did Return of the King up the ante? No. Did Jim Rygiel get his third Oscar? Yes. Why? The Academy likes repeat winners, like Dennis Muren and Stan Winston.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille
Best Dark Horse Chance: Persepolis

Can someone down at the Academy’s office explain to me how Surf’s Up got a nomination over The Simpson’s Movie? Anyone? Please, feel free to.

This leaves two real contenders for this category. Up first is Persepolis, a critically raved about film that has more meaning and heart than Ratatouille.

However, Ratatouille – in addition to being one of my favorite films of the year – is a part of the Mouse House. I would bet on those guys every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Beaufort – Israel
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

I have not seen one of these movies, but Beaufort has gotten a lot of praise.

However, the Academy’s rules are bogus in this category. They have the potential for an all-star gathering in this category, but ruled out The Band’s Visit, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Lust, Caution, and 4 Months, 3 Threes, and 2 Days. I smell a rule re-write coming.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: No End in Sight
Should Win: No End in Sight
Best Dark Horse Chance: Taxi to the Dark Side

No End in Sight was one of the best films of the year and this should be its reward. The control and focus of this movie is beyond reproach and holds more of an impact than Fahrenheit 9/11.

While Sicko may have the “celebrity” appeal of Michael Moore, it lacks the passion and grandeur of his past works. Additionally, I have never heard of War Dance and Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience.

This leaves the much lauded Taxi to the Dark Side. What hurts this film’s chance though is its late release in the year.

Totals

No Country for Old Men – 6, Atonement – 3, Transformers – 3, Away from Her – 1, Beaufort – 1, I’m Not There – 1, Juno – 1, No End in Sight – 1, Once – 1, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – 1, Ratatouille – 1, There Will Be Blood – 1

Best Documentary Short Speculation

Ah, best documentary short. Always a mystery. Always annoyingly obscure. Let's see exactly what we can find out about the four nominees this year.

Freeheld- Trailer
Director: Cynthia Wade, first time Oscar nominee

Subject: Doesn't get much more moving than this- a dying New Jersey policewoman wants to secure her pension for her lesbian life partner of six years- but of course, can't. It chronicles the efforts of activists to sway the will of the "freeholders" in charge of the pension board before she dies.

La Corona- (interview with Micheli)
Director: Amanda Micheli/Isabel Vega- first time Oscar nominees

Subject: A "character driven" piece about a beauty pagent in a women's prison. Seems like a longshot.

Salim Baba (official site) (interview with producer)

Director: Tim Sternberg, another first timer

Subject: A 14-minute affair about a man from north Calcutta that earns a living by "screening discarded film fragments for neighborhood children on a hand-cranked projector bequeathed to him by his father." Sounds interesting, but slight once again.

Sari's Mother (official site)

Director: James Longley, Oscar nominated director of last 2006's Feature Documentary Iraq in Fragments.

Subject: A mother tries to care for her HIV infected, ten year old son in war torn Iraq.

So it sounds like a tossup between Freeheld and Sari's Mother, based on the subject test. Too bad we can't know anything more. I would guess that Longley's relative name recognition, and the more hot-button issue of Iraq would push the latter film to the podium (plus we know how the Academy feels about gay people, don't we?).

Best Animated Short Roundup

FYI to my fellow Milwaukee residents: The Times Cinema will once again be hosting the Academy Award nominated short films.

Unfortunately, the Live Action program starts on Friday, Feb. 23rd, and runs for a week. So they don't show the Animated shorts until March 1st, which is obviously after the awards ceremony.

But of Course, that's why we have YouTube. Four out of the five films are up in their entirety, so I here will link to them (some are in multiple parts, so embedding would be a little ridiculous), and post my reviews and thoughts.

I Met The Walrus -Trailer
link

This looks very cool in design, and originality is often a key factor. Last year The Danish Poet (Part I, Part II) was clearly the easiest film to animate, but far and away the best story of the five nominees and it won. I Met the Walrus is a 2D sort of animation show, set word by word to an interview with John Lennon conducted by a renegade 14 year-old in 1969. It is only five minutes long, though I have little clue if that counts against it. Josh Raskin, the director, has no previous awards pedigree either.

Peter And The Wolf
Part I Part II Part III

Excellently done in claymation, if a little slow developing. Suzie Templeton, a BAFTA winner for her short film Dog in 2002, adds a few subtle touches to the edges of the classical music piece (what's with the kid throwing Peter in a dumpster?), but it doesn't really set itself apart.

Even Pigeons Go To Heaven
link

A funny, wacky piece, in lieu of any Pixar shorts this year (wasn't there one attached to the Ratatouille DVD? What happened there?). A con-man priest tries to sell an old man a machine that will transport him to heaven in an eight minute entry that curiously never mentions pigeons. Director Samuel Tourneux is also a newcomer to the awards circuit.

Madame Tutli-Putli
Part I Part II

Our third claymation entry, and a weird one. A slow developing, silent piece about a woman who boards a train, and has progressively creepier things start happening to her. It has grating violin music, and tries a little too hard to be avante garde for me. It's kind of like if a David Lynch film were shortened to seventeen minutes, but still managed to be as slow-paced as it was to begin with.

My Love
Part I Part II Part III

I actually remember watching the Oscars in 2000, and seeing a short clip of Aleksandr Petrov's The Old Man and The Sea (Part I, Part II), and dropping my jaw in amazement for a second before saying "that has to win." And it did. His next film, eight years later, looks just as amazing as it tells a story of a young man confused about love. Or something- the subtitles on this copy are pretty wonky, and I'm relatively sure they're missing a lot of important lines, but the visual experience of this one is worth it. So much work went into this hand-painted film that it seems impossible to beat.

Thoughts on the Live Action Shorts right before the Oscars, if I have the time in the two days beforehand to see them. I'm still flying blind on Documentary Shorts, though- damn them.

Links for Tuesday

A slow starting week for the blog here- apologies.

What's been happening? Well, Ethan and Joel Coen won the Director's Guild award, making NCFOM's Best Picture chances just that much higher. It also won the ensemble SAG award (and then apparently Josh Brolin forgot that Tommy Lee Jones was much more important than he was and hogged the mic), and honestly we should just stop wondering now.

Also winning SAGs- Daniel Day Lewis, Julie Christie, Javier Bardem, and Ruby Dee. One of these things is not like the others...

The song "Falling Slowly" from Once, as I anticipated, is now in danger of having it's Oscar nomination revoked because it may not have been written for the film (duh!). I'm not saying forget the rules, I'm just saying get it right the first time, Academy. My take- they should revoke it (because if it beat 'original' songs it would seem unfair), but replace it with...another song from Once! "If You Want Me" was the only other song on the shortlist, but since that list was apparently also a piece of crap they could also go with "Fallen From the Sky," "Once," or "The Hill." (Or this!).

Meet the Spartans rules the Box Office, because we as a people are mentally incompetent. I would have been fine with Rambo, I really would have.

New Line finally settled with Peter Jackson awhile ago, so he's going to exec produce a 'Hobbit' movie (and another, blatantly unecessary LoTR film. Let's not get carried into nineties-era Lucas terriority here, people). So who's going to direct said film that wouldn't be a big step down from Jackson? Maybe... Guillermo Del Toro?

Speaking of which, beyond sequels like LoTR and The Dark Knight, I try not to scan crazy far ahead into movie news, because who wants to wait forever when they're excited about something? But get this- there's a 2009 movie called Public Enemies, about FBI agent Melvin Purvis tracking down John Dillinger.

Sounds cool enough already. But there are also three details that make it completely awesome, and I will list them in order of their excitement factor:

1. Michael Mann is directing it (Heat, Collateral, The Insider, The Last of the Mohicans)
2. Who will play Dillinger? Johnny Depp, that's who.
3. Oh, and the FBI Agent? Christian fucking Bale! Christian Bale is so awesome these days that a couple of months ago I had a conversation with Dave that went something like this...

Dave: There's making a fourth Terminator movie...
Me: Ugh.
Dave: It's directed by McG...
Me: Ugh.
Dave: and Christian Bale might be in it.
Me: Sold.

Crash, will now be a tv series. Yeah, there's really no need for that. The Onion's headline says it all. I felt, immediately after seeing that film, that it was pretty good, but why is it a modern masterpiece all of a sudden? Now I hate it to the point of revulsion, like a pretty good pop song that I can't go to any public restroom without hearing twice. The only good thing that has ever resulted from Crash is this list at McSweeney's internet tendency.

The WGA has agreed to provide the Grammy's with lame banter and uneccessary introductory monologues. Where's the waiver for The Oscars, already? Does anyone give a Belgian weasel about the Grammy's anymore? No!

My problems with the Grammy's: First of all, there's about eight billion different, gratiuitous, and hard to distinguish on the best of days categories. Second, in the major categories, all that ever gets nominated is what's all over the radio and at the top of Billboard charts anyway- I'm not saying it's not good music, but come on- we all know that popularity is not the basis for artistic merit.

This would be like if The Oscars nominated Spiderman 3 and At World's End and Transformers for everything, simply because they sold the most tickets.

The Netflix Diaries: Surf's Up

Last year, in predicting the Oscars for abc.com's official contest, I went with the favorite, Pixar's Cars, and got burned by the trendy, overly precious Happy Feet stealing the statue.

Let me tell you- Happy Feet is nothing special- it's just an environmentally minded novelty film with dancing penguins in it, and the multiple personalities of Robin Williams. We actually rented it from Blockbuster (children's fare is the one thing we usually miss in the theater, because we're... not children), and found it seriously overrated.

So when yet another Penguin themed CGI film came out this year, Surf's Up, I found it hard to muster up any motivation to see it- turns out I missed a pretty fun family film. And it's no surprise at all that it usurped The Simpson's Movie for the final, not a chance in hell, Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature.

Surf's Up asks the viewer to pretty quickly accept the idea that penguins like to surf, and many of them live on a tropical looking beach and surf all the time, and once you do, it's a pretty straightforward sports movie. Shia LaBeouf voices a runt penguin that dreams of becoming a champion surfer, and eventually gains the help of Jeff Bridges' disgraced former surfing champion.

And for once, Surf's Up doesn't go too crazy with the "guess the unnecessary celebrity voice" game, despite James Woods in a minor role. Any major draws at least actually fit their part (Jon Heder voices a very stoner-sounding chicken), and it's rounded out by people with actual voice talent (like Brian Posehn and Diedrich Bader).

A well chosen soundtrack moves the film along, and the ultimate message of this sports film is to not get too competitive, which is a good one for some kids to learn.

But the real thing that sets Surf's Up apart is the faux-documentary style in which it was done- there are off-screen interviewer's, and boom mics visible. The pacing of verite scenes inter-cut with talking head interviews makes it like a long episode of The Office, except about surfing penguins. It's a clever gag that they never take too far, and make it fun for those of us older than ten.

It's got precious little hope for an Oscar come February 24th, but it worth seeing all the same.

Best Original Song Oscar- What Happened?

One of the traditionally most ridiculous categories to predict, beyond the short films, is the Best Original Song Oscar.

The big complaint this year is that three songs from Enchanted got nominated. Now, I understand that Alan Menken has history on his side: eight wins for Disney standards like "Under the Sea," "A Whole New World," and "Colors of The Wind" from The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, and Pocahontas, respectively. So I actually went to YouTube and checked out the three songs. "So Close" is okay- kind of a cheese-ball ballad that really feels dated to me, but I could see why it's nominated, at least in a year with a Randy Newman Pixar song or something. But both "That's How You Know" and "Happy Working Song" are complete pieces of fluff- pale imitations of earlier Disney musical songs that are absolutely nothing special.

The August Rush song, "Raise It Up," is nice and soulfull- but honestly some of the after-school rap lyrics are honestly cringe inducing. Also, children singing is very hit or miss for me.

So here are my choices, from the original list of 59, for what I'd vote for.

"Do You Feel Me" - Diane Warren (perf. by Anthony Hamilton)
from American Gangster



Randomly sung during a nightclub scene in Ridley Scott's all-but overlooked crime drama, this song left an immediate impression- it could have been any random seventies cover, but Diane Warren (an Oscar song giant herself) captured the soul of the era, and Anthony Hamilton delivers it. No offense to Amy Adams' singing voice, but come on.

"My Hands Are Shaking" - Sondre Lerche
from Dan In Real Life



If I had known that Norwegian troubadour Sondre Lerche composed the score and wrote several songs for Dan in Real Life, I probably would have gotten off my ass and seen it. As it is, you shouldn't have to be a former Beatle to get an Oscar nomination for a pop song.

"Pop! Goes My Heart" - Andrew Wyatt (perf. by Wyatt and hugh Grant)
from Music and Lyrics



Good song? Yeah, it's cheesy and captures the era. But mostly, how awesome would it be to see this performed at the Oscars? (assuming there is an Oscars).

"Guaranteed" - Eddie Vedder
from Into the Wild



Usually I'm not the biggest Eddie Vedder fan, but this seems to fit the mood of the story perfectly. What's with the Academy not liking pop stars anyway? This getting the shaft, after winning the Golden Globe, is pretty strange on the heels of both Vedder's and Johnny Greenwood's late-breaking disqualifications for Best Score.

And finally, the only one of the academy's five I agree with:

"Falling Slowly"- Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
from Once



Curiously, this song seems like it shouldn't have been nominated, as per the Academy's bitchy rules (it was written well before the film, and even released on Hansard and Irglova's "The Swell Season"). But as long as the voters were ignorant enough of it to nominate it, there's no way it should lose.

I would be well more pissed than any other Oscar fiasco (including Crash over Brokeback Mountain, Titanic over L. A. Confidential, anything) if "Falling Slowly" doesn't win the statue.

Academy Award Nomination Musings

Best Picture Nominees: No surprises here. I thought Sweeney Todd would have a chance, especially after the Golden Globes win, but Michael Clayton garnering a nomination is not shocking. No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are the clear frontrunners right now. I do not think the comparisons between Juno and Little Miss Sunshine have ever really been deserved (Because I think Juno is a lot better), but at least Little Miss Sunshine had an outside chance to actually win the category.

Best Actor Nominees: Every major entertainment news outlet (Entertainment Weekly, Rotten Tomatoes, etc.) lauded Tommy Lee Jones, but figured him for dead. Jones getting a nomination is a bit of a surprise because of the underwhelming box office of In the Valley of Elah and the crowded field. However, I think this category is already closed because one of the nominees drinks your milkshake! He drinks it up! Excellent to see the Academy also give a nomination to Viggo Mortensen for his daring and dark performance. Here is a bold prediction for the 2010 Oscars – which will award the 2009 movies – Viggo Mortensen will actually win his Oscar then.

Best Actress Nominees: Cate Blanchett? Really? In this category? I know that critics said her performance and the costume design were the only highlights of the film, but I did not figure her for a nomination. I thought Blanchett’s Golden Globe nomination was because of the dearth of fantastic female performances, but apparently, the Academy is sold on her. I figured that Angelina Jolie had a spot clinched because of the emotional impact and hype surrounding A Mighty Heart. Finally, congratulations to the almost always underrated and undervalued Laura Linney.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees: Easy to see these nominees coming.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees: No surprises here either, as all of these women have received multiple nominations from various sources.

Best Director Nominees: Two surprises in this category. I did not have Jason Reitman picked at all. I figured Juno would receive praise for a variety of things, but never did I see a Best Director nomination coming for him. Tony Gilroy is just a tiny bit surprising because this is his first feature film. Impressive for Gilroy, but I figured that Ridley Scott would skate in for his courtesy nomination. The omission of Joe Wright is not overly shocking, but still seems odd for an incredible movie.

Best Original Screenplay Nominees: Nice to see some new blood in the category in the form of Tamara Jenkins and Nancy Oliver. Brad Bird’s inclusion is excellent to see that the Academy is willing to award outstanding animated films.

Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees: Congratulations to Sarah Polley. I thought the Academy would give their love to Aaron Sorkin, just like the folks who run the Emmys.

Overall, the only thing that kind of surprises is the lack of love for Sweeney Todd. I thought it would have an outside chance at multiple nominations, but apparently not. However, looking at other guild nominees, it should not be overly surprising.

Also, this sounds weird, but I am glad to see that Into the Wild did not get a nomination. After several guild nominations, I thought it had a chance to grab the last spot. I saw this movie and did not walk away with the sense, “Oh, this could be a Best Picture nominee.” It is a good movie, but not one of the five best of the year.

It's Oscar Nomination Day!

I feel like it's Christmas or something.

Anyway, here are the nominees. No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood lead the field with eight apiece, followed closely by Michael Clayton and Atonement with seven. The final Best Picture nominee is Juno, with four nominees total.

Dave and I both called four out of the big five (I had The Diving Bell and the Butterfly instead of Juno, he had Sweeney Todd instead of Michael Clayton), and did pretty well overall. A breakdown follows:

Dave:

Total: 56 out of 85 predictions correct, or 65.9%

Big eight categories (Actor/Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress, Picture, Director, both Screenplays): 28 out of 40, 70%

Technical categories: 23 out of 32, 71.9%

Miscellaneous (Animated Feature, Song, Score): 5 out of 13, 38.5%

Categories nailed: Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Visual Effects

One Wrong: Best Picture, Lead Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Animated Feature

Me:

Total: 63 out of 89, 70.8%

"Big eight": 35 out of 40, or 87.5%

Techs: 22 out of 36, 61.1%

Misc: 6 out of 13, 46.2%

Categories Nailed: Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

One Wrong: Best Picture, Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Animated Feature, Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, Costume

Not too shabby, I'd say. In fact, since the news broke late last night that both Johnny Greenwood and the Into the Wild team were disqualified for score, and the Original song nominees were nut-bonkers (three songs from Enchanted? really?), I say we throw out those two categories and give us a boost to 75% and 71% correct in the categories that we could reasonably predict.

Hopefully before the ceremony itself we'll have time to catch up on everything- there's usually a print that comes through town of the nominated live and animated shorts, so everything but Documentary short (and usually most of foreign) has played in Milwaukee by late February.

In fact, since Into the Wild completely got the shaft (only 2 nominations? ouch.), this will be the first time I've seen all five Best picture candidates before they were even announced (and Dave, I trust, will see Michael Clayton soon). So look forward to Oscar Prediction columns even longer than the nominee ones.

Trailer Report: The Savages, Snow Angels, The Band's Visit

Some interesting upcoming features in front of There Will Be Blood over the weekend..

The Savages

trailer link
(not on YouTube? Get with the program, people!)

This film on paper? Sounds horribly depressing. Two dysfunctional adult siblings have to decide what to do with their cranky, elderly father as his health fails. I had no idea at all it had comedic moments in it- Phillip Seymour Hoffman plays tennis! Hilarity ensues...

Snow Angels



Sam Rockwell alert! He seems to play strictly sad cases these days, based on this and his part as the paranoid brother in The Assassination of Jesse James. And he got second billing to Kate Beckinsale!?

This looks depressing, but not as depressing as David Gordon Green's previous directorial efforts- All the Real Girls and Undertow. Seriously, can he just make a movie about kittens or something?

The Band's Visit



Interesting fact about this film- it was disqualified for the Best Foreign Film Oscar for containing too much English. Isn't that kind of harsh, considering that America is such an obnoxious world power that English is becoming sort of a neutral language between other cultures? Oh sorry, is our lack of diplomacy forcing your children to learn our language? Then your movies fail to be different enough!

And the foreign category is completely whack this year anyway- France didn't submit The Diving Bell and the Butterfly because they'd rather it won Best Picture, but then Persepolis doesn't make the shortlist for the Oscar- neither does Spain's most lauded film, The Orphanage, or any other foreign film with any buzz that I've heard about (like Iran's Offside, or Romania's 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days). Can we just agree, AMPAS, to scrap your ridiculous "one movie per country" rule and just let merit win out next year? Sheesh.

Duncan's Oscar Nominee Predictions

So, no more hand-wringing, no more shuffling my feet- it’s time to lay down some cold, hard, Oscar Predictions.

Best Picture

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Atonement
Michael Clayton

The BAFTAs came out last night, and just like I thought, Atonement led the field with 14 nominations, but Sweeney Todd was nowhere. So welcome back to contention, Joe Wright, Keira Knightly, et al. Too bad there aren’t enough British people in the Academy to give you more than one Oscar or two come February.

No Country and Blood have cemented all around support, while Into the Wild seems to have had the wheels fall off, despite earlier Guild support. I’m guessing (it’s a gut feeling), that it’ll ultimately get pushed off the ballot by The Diving Bell and The Butterfly. Although if I’m wrong anywhere on here, it’s probably the exclusion of Juno, but it feels like a mirage of a juggernaut to me- it should end up with the Eternal Sunshine combo of leading actress nom and original screenplay win for its trouble, but nothing else.

Best Director

Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Joe Wright - Atonement
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton

This came down to three locks- Coens, Anderson, and Schnabel, another BAFTA/Globe influenced inclusion in Wright (Sorry Tim Burton), and a tossup between Tony Gilroy and Sean Penn. This is pretty close to the DGA’s list, but with Wright instead of Penn, and they usually call four out of five (and almost always predict the winner).

Best Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody- Juno
Tony Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins- The Savages
Nancy Oliver- Lars and the Real Girl
Brad Bird- Ratatouille

Most of the heavy hitters are in adapted this year, which leaves this category open for newcomers and oddballs- I’m counting on Brad Bird to duplicate his Incredibles nomination, and Jenkins and Oliver’s screenplays are getting lots of buzz. And Diablo Cody’s Juno script is a guaranteed winner already.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Christopher Hampton- Atonement
Ronald Hardwood- The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
James Vanderbilt- Zodiac

Four Best Picture Nominees, and the nearly forgotten about Zodiac. What gets me is that the Coen brothers are almost certain to win for No Country, but they did the least work of anyone in adapting that novel- it’s nearly scene for scene, word for word the same as McCarthy. Go figure.

Lead Actor

Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
George Clooney- Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch- Into the Wild

“Ladies and gentlemen… I’ve traveled over half our state to be here tonight. I couldn't get away sooner because my new well was coming in at Coyote Hills and I had to see about it. That well is now flowing at two thousand barrels and it's paying me an income of five thousand dollars a week. I have two others drilling and I have sixteen producing at Antelope. So, ladies and gentlemen... if I say I'm an oil man, you will agree.”

Lead Actress

Julie Christie- Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page- Juno
Angelina Jolie- A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney- The Savages

Another film from the first half of the year that would have many more nominations if it came out a month ago- Away From Her is going to end up with just Christie’s nomination, but she’s the favorite for the statue. Angelina Jolie… ugh. But she’s got the homecoming dance vote. Ellen Page will probably set some sort of record for the youngest person to ever get a lead nomination, and hopefully Laura Linney will have had enough time for The Savages to make the rounds of the country before ballots are due.

Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James
Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook- Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson- Michael Clayton

An easy field this year- Holbrook has the most acclaim of anyone in that film, but he’s got too much competition to take home the statue.

Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett- I’m Not There
Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone
Saoirse Ronan- Atonement
Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton
Ruby Dee- American Gangster

If there’s one thing this category loves, it’s old ladies and little kids- hence Ruby Dee, plus pint-sized Saoirse Ronan garnering Atonement’s only acting nom (sorry Keira. Go eat a cheeseburger). Cate Blanchett get’s this year’s obligatory “extreme transformation” nomination, but hopefully not the win- Amy Ryan really deserves the accolades she’s been getting for making us feel for an unlikeable character.

Animated Feature

Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

This is an easy category to predict the nominees for (sadly, Paprika is getting no love from anyone), but the Ratatouille versus Persepolis debate is impossible to figure- Pixar’s been taking home all of the early awards, but the Oscars never go for the obvious in this category. Plus the political and biographical context to Persepolis make it a much more unique and appealing choice.

Cinematography

Roger Deakins- No Country For Old Men
Robert Elswit- There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey- Atonement
Eric Gautier- Into the Wild

I was on the fence about the double nod for Deakins (he got two guild noms, with one for The Assassination of Jesse James), but I think Into the Wild is powered by the strength of the cinematography. Kaminski is owed one after getting shafted for his work on Children of Men.

Editing

“Roderick Jaynes”(the Coens)- No Country For Old Men
Dylan Tichenor- There Will Be Blood
Jay Cassidy- Into the Wild
John Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Chris Lebenzon- Sweeney Todd

Atonement is not terribly jumpy or complex to merit an editing nomination, and Into the Wild beat it out for the guild nods. Otherwise, some very epic films fill out this category, the winner of which usually wins best picture (I read this on awardsdaily.com, my favorite Oscar Blog).

Art Direction

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Dave had the fortitude to look up the rest of the individual technical nominees. Me? Just the movie title. I just think about these things in general terms, with an eye on the guild noms. Sweeney Todd seems like it’ll make up for lost love in these categories, and otherwise period pieces are a good bet. No Country is an unconventional choice, but it has unanimous across the board support, and it is set nearly thirty years ago…

Visual Effects

Pirates 3
300
Transformers

There’s a pattern to this category- two obvious choices (Transformers, Pirates), and one visually innovative choice, thus 300.

Makeup

Sweeney Todd
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Pirates 3

I figure a year for outstanding makeup grotesquery, between squid people, pale faced throat-slashers, and stroke victims with their eyes sewn shut.

Costume Design

Atonement
Sweeney Todd
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
La Vie En Rose

More love for Sweeney Todd. But I think this statue is going to be won solely by that green dress from Atonement, which everyone is raving about.

Sound Mixing

No Country For Old Men
300
Transformers
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Sound Editing

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
300
Atonement
Transformers

Never know how many to predict for these two- sometimes it’s three, sometimes five. I figure I’ll go with all ten to cover my bases- if they only nominate three out of the five I pick, I can say I was right! No Country has the guild nom, and is well done despite being mostly silent. There Will Be Blood is a sonic masterpiece, with the score interwoven so well into the proceedings that it’s as rich as any musical in depth. Atonement fills out the editing for the war scenes, as that category loves war. I could be way off here, more than any other categories, but it’s worth a shot.

Original Score

Dario Marainelli- Atonement
Johnny Greenwood- There Will Be Blood
Alberto Iglesias- The Kite Runner
Howard Shore- Eastern Promises
Brook/King/Vedder- Into the Wild

Greenwood has to get a nod. He just has to. Marinelli is the prohibitive favorite, but Greenwood’s score is far and away the best accompaniment to its film.

Original Song

“Do You Feel Me” from American Gangster
“That’s How You Know” from Enchanted
“Guaranteed” from Into the Wild
“Falling Slowly” from Once
“Walk Hard” from Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story

Another impossible category, but I’m putting my money on “Falling Slowly” sticking in the minds of anyone who saw Once- hands down the best song in a film this year. Otherwise, Disney’s rep for original songs will get the one from Enchanted on the list, the Eddie Vedder song just won the Globe, and the Oscars usually have an oddball choice (like “Blame Canada” from the South Park Movie).

(Totals: There Will Be Blood- 10, No Country For Old Men- 9, Atonement- 9, Michael Clayton- 7, Diving Bell- 6, Sweeney Todd- 6, Into the Wild- 6, Transformers/300- 3.)