2008 Oscar Predictions- Duncan

So it's all come down to this, it seems. Never before have I seen all of the Best Picture nominees, heading into the ceremony. I've read awardsdaily.com, I've read NYT's The Carpetbagger, I've pored over charts and figures, and now I have to put myself on record.

Last year, I went 17 for 24- I missed best animated short because I should have went with my gut, not the experts. I missed Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy because I should have used common sense. I missed Happy Feet over Cars because I underestimated penguins. Otherwise, I missed some unpredictable upsets in cinematography and Foreign Language that nobody saw coming.

What will happen on Sunday? Most of the major categories are locks, except the two actresses. The technical awards are always anybody's guess. And then there are the complete wild cards like documentary short, and best original song.

Well, here's my best guess.

Best Picture

The Winner: No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Michael Clayton

Just for the record, we're doing "Dark Horse" picks this year as potential spoilers, but that doesn't mean I think Michael Clayton has a real chance. Nothing has dominated the awards since like No Country since Return of the King, and we all remember what happened there. There's just no derailing it, but if there were some bizarro world situation where No Country and There Will Be Blood split the vote, then Clayton could emerge from the dust on the strength of it's triple nominated cast.

The love for Michael Clayton has baffled some- I think the Academy misses non-Ocean's movies Steven Soderbergh so much that they'll take the nearest substitute. But I think it's great to see an atmospheric thriller recognized in major categories, which wouldn't have been unusual at all forty years ago.

The Rest:
Juno seems like a paper tiger to me, a gimme nomination for a crowd favorite. I liked it much, much more than it's frequent comparison partner, Little Miss Sunshine, but I have no fear of it stealing the Oscar this year- LMS seemed like a real possibility in 07.

Atonement is definitely an odd case- everyone outside America is head over heels for it-we thought it was okay. I wonder if it was marketed differently (and more effectively) overseas- the overall lukewarm reaction here seems to be from people that expected a sweeping, epic romance, and got instead a lighter, quicker meditation on nuance and authorship. Maybe if people could talk about what I mean by that without giving the ending away, the promotional campaign for the film could have been more direct and original than the standard Knightley/McAvoy looks of longing posters.

There Will Be Blood is brilliant, and definitely the second best film of the five, but I get the feeling that if No Country weren't around, there's no way it would have the award sewn up- the third act has proved too crazy and divisive to make it a real front-runner.

Best Director

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

On the strength of his Golden Globe win, and the general feeling that Diving Bell got the shaft, I was leaning toward predicting a victory for Schnabel here. But his general antipathy for the Awards circuit hasn't helped his image, and the Coens took home the all important DGA award.

The Rest:
Tony Gilroy (Clayton) has the makings of an auteur, but is still a first timer and a longshot. Paul Thomas Anderson (Blood) is earning a reputation as a meticulous filmmaker that can create breathtaking films, but I think his achievement is being far too overshadowed by his star- if he returns to the ensemble format for his next film, I could imagine him easily winning a trophy. Reitman (Juno)? I keep forgetting he was even nominated. Sorry, but it's true.

Best Actor

The Winner: Daniel Day Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: George Clooney- Michael Clayton

Little left to say about this one, really. I sometimes wonder if I'll ever go back to the way I was before last year, when I started following awards news and categories with clear favorites like this one (and Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren last year) lost any surprise. But then I remember how much I love this stuff. Even Clooney admits his loss is a foregone conclusion.

The Rest:
Personally, I was always baffled by Viggo Mortensen's lack of respect for taking what JRR Tolkien wrote as a horribly flat character and making him come alive. Maybe this nomination (for Eastern Promises) is for that trilogy, really. Tommy Lee Jones I'm sure did a wonderful job, but it seems like he got some guilt votes from all the academy members that didn't want to see In the Valley of Elah and get bummed out. Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) gets a nomination for coolness- he won't actually have a chance until he stars in a "serious" film, which is a shame.

Best Actress

The Winner: Julie Christie- Away From Her
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard- La Vie En Rose

But then again, there are still races that are too close to call- But I think Christie breaks a virtual tie with Cotillard on name recognition alone. The surprise adapted screenplay nomination for Away From Her suggests that it's high-profile enough to secure this award.

The Rest:
Laura Linney (The Savages) seems destined for one of those career recognition Oscars in the supporting category someday- she's always a contender, never quite at the top. Ellen Page (Juno) was in a comedy, and you know the rules on that. Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) is the only one here with no shot at all- nobody wins Best Actress for a critically panned flop (I'm sure Dave will look something up to prove me wrong on that, though.)

Supporting Actor

The Winner: Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford

I've heard some complaints that Bardem is going to take home a statue for mostly being silent, but I don't think that's the case- just because sociopathy is a lack of recognizable human emotions doesn't mean that it's easy to pull off. If it was just someone sleepwalking through a wordless part, the character would be boring, instead of terrifying. Casey Affleck would have a much better chance for his nervy, jangling role in Assassination if, you know, anybody saw it.

The Rest:
Hal Holbrook is apparently a respected film veteran, and kudos to him, but it's quite clear that no one had any patience for Into the Wild for whatever reason. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) just looked surly for a while- this nomination baffles me- really? Someone in an Aaron Sorkin scripted movie was irritable and made wisecracks? No way! And Tom Wilkinson was the heart and soul of Michael Clayton, but I guess he was out-crazied by Bardem.

Supporting Actress
The Winner: Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There
Dark Horse: Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone

I was too lazy to do the "will win" and "should win" distinctions (like Dave did), as this is really the only likely winner I would strongly disagree with. Really? She plays a man, that's awesome. Who cares?

I think it has a lot to do with impersonating someone, versus making an audience believe in a character from scratch. Anne Proulx, in her steaming-mad indictment of the Crash-Brokeback fiasco, touched upon this much more eloquently:

Hollywood loves mimicry, the conversion of a film actor into the spittin' image of a once-living celeb. But which takes more skill, acting a person who strolled the boulevard a few decades ago and who left behind tapes, film, photographs, voice recordings and friends with strong memories, or the construction of characters from imagination and a few cold words on the page? I don't know. The subject never comes up.

This issue might have tipped my choice in Best Actress (Edith Piaf v. fictional character) as well.

The Rest:
Can we all agree to stop nominating old people who are only in two scenes of a film just because they're old? Hey, good for Ruby Dee (American Gangster), I wish her all the best and have nothing but respect for her career. But she barely has time for one note in her cameo role, let alone the several notes that Amy Ryan hit in multiple scenes. Saiorse Ronan holds the first half of Atonement together, but is spared the more challenging scenes of harrowing guilt that the other two actresses in her role had to deal with. Tilda Swinton would be another worthy winner, as she was more fleshed out into a character that the eponymous hero of Michael Clayton.

Best Original Screenplay

The Winner: Diablo Cody- Juno
Dark Horse: Brad Bird- Ratatouille

It would be hard to send home the only Blockbuster among the best picture nominees with absolutely nothing. And since it has zero chance in picture and director, and a teensy sliver of a chance in actress, it seems to have been decided long ago that Cody's script is the place to honor it. Personally, I enjoyed the film, but it seems hard to credit the script without mentioning that it takes a great cast to make all that slang palatable. And it's unique and all, sure, but how is it that much more impressive than, say, Clueless? Brad Bird's newest film is the most lauded animated feature since Beauty and the Beast, and makes me nervous about predicting all five categories it appears in. Everyone loves this film, especially the critical community.

The Rest:
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) and Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) team with Cody for a record number of female screenplay nominees, and more power to all three- Juno seems to be drawing all of the girl power vote though, despite Jenkins' deft human touches. Michael Clayton is tightly written by Tony Gilroy, but the strength of the film is more in the atmosphere and the performances- corrupt businesses and shady lawyers aren't exactly anything new.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Ronald Harwood- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Coens stand to win four statues apiece if everything goes their way, and they're the safest bet in this category, even though the actual writing of the screenplay was mostly done for them by Cormac McCarthy (he doesn't even use quotation marks- they could just scan most of the book and hand it out to people, for crying out loud). Hardwood, a recent winner for The Pianist, had the much more complex job of translating a slim, objectively sparse memoir of a paralyzed man into a sweeping, subjective movie experience - The BAFTA's went with Harwood, but they also went with Atonement for Best Picture...

The Rest:
Sarah Polley (Away From Her) surprised everyone, even one of the movie's biggest fans in yours truly, with a glad-to-be-here fifth nomination in this category. Christopher Hampton (Atonement) also had a weighty task in trimming Ian McEwan's pensive, thoughtful novel of reminiscence into a film with a rapt momentum. Paul Thomas Anderson has himself admitted that the second half of There Will Be Blood has little, if anything to do with Upton Sinclair's Oil!- so while a great script it has little chance at this Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

The Winner: Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Persepolis

It seemed like it would be a tough call, but honestly Ratatouille has been slamming the competition nearly everywhere else- Persepolis came out a little late in the states to turn back the tide, I'm afraid.

Best Documentary Feature

The Winner: No End in Sight
Dark Horse: Taxi to the Dark Side

All about Iraq this year- No End in Sight for the win. But my dark horse is currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of course, I haven't seen any of these, so I could be way off.

Best Foreign Film

The Winner: The Counterfeiters
Dark Horse: Katyn

All anyone knows for sure here is that the loser in this category is international cinema- these nominations make little sense. But the whole Academy votes for this category, so I browsed the subjects and found that Austria's The Counterfeiters is the true story of a Jewish counterfeiter forced to make foreign currency for th Nazis while in a concentration camp. And if you don't think dealing with true stories from the Holocaust is a surefire bet for the win, then you obviously have never watched the Oscars before.

Achievement in Editing

The Winner: Christopher Rouse- The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark Horse: "Roderick Jaynes"- No Country For Old Men

A head scratcher here- The Bourne Ultimatum took the Guild Award, but the traditional march toward Best Picture for No Country would give the Coens( and their pseudonym) the award here. I'm going with the guild in a close call, since they are nearly always right, but if I'm wrong I'll be pissed.

Achievement in Cinematography

The Winner: Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Dark Horse: Roger Deakins- No Country for Old Men

It seems weird to have to pick between Deakins work on No Country and Elswit's on Blood, since the landscape and pallet of the two films aren't very distinguishable to a non-DOP like myself. But since this guild is not a very accurate predictor, it's hard to give Elswit's victory there much weight. My gut is telling me that Janus Kaminski, the prohibitive favorite for his long, uncut shots from Children of Men last year, can't be ignored twice in a row.

Achievement in Makeup

The Winner: Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald- La Vie En Rose
Dark Horse: Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji- Norbit

I'm hoping for the Rose team here based on their BAFTA win recently. Otherwise, with Rick Baker's resume (Six (6!) Makeup Oscars, including the first one in 1981), Norbit may actually win an Academy Award. But seeing as Norbit pretty much lost Eddie Murphy an Oscar for being in theaters during last year's ceremony, I don't think that'll happen.

Achievement in Costuming

The Winner: Jacqueline Durran- Atonement
Dark Horse: Colleen Atwood- Sweeney Todd

Something is telling me that the green dress from Atonement is the only really memorable costume this year- Marit Allen is a threat for La Vie En Rose, but I think Atwood, a recent winner for Memoirs of a Geisha is the next likely bet.

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Winner: Farrar/Benza/Earl/Frazier- Transfomers
Dark Horse: Knoll/Gibson/Hickel/Frazier- Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End

Another agreed-upon lock- I guess they spent a lot of time making robots into cars. Otherwise, the team from Pirates won last year (that Frazier is the same guy, by the way, John Frazier- he's looking as good as Daniel Day Lewis and the Coen's for a statue).

Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Winner: O'Connell/Russell/Devlin- Transformers
Dark Horse: Thom/Semanick/Kane- Ratatouille

Based on recent history, this guild is usually wrong- sorry, No Country team. I say it falls to Kevin O'Connell and his team- now that he has outdone Randy Newman and been nominated for his 20th Oscar without a victory, I think he'll finally get let off the hook. Nobody can be that cruel- right, sound mixers of the world?

Achievement in Sound Editing

The Winner: Silvers/Thom- Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Hopkins/Van Der Ryn- Transformers

The two Best Picture nominees in this category are actually the two without past Oscar wins on the sound teams. I'm saying this will go to the two guys who won a few years ago for The Incredibles- Ratatouille can't walk away with just one Oscar, can it?

Achievement in Art Direction

The Winner: Ferreti/Lo Schiavo- Sweeney Todd
Dark Horse: Greenwood/Spencer- Atonement

This category tends to go to exotic and distinctive contenders, from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to Dick Tracy- and given Sleepy Hollow's win in 1999, I think Sweeney Todd has the best chance for the statue here. The Art Director's Guild went with both The Golden Compass and There Will Be Blood, but they're wrong as often as they're right. Plus, if I didn't disagree with the consensus on something, then my opinion wouldn't really mean anything, would it?

Best Animated Short

The Winner: My Love
Dark Horse: I Met the Walrus

See here.

Best Live Action Short

The Winner: At Night
Dark Horse: The Mozart of Pickpockets

This category I reserve the right to change after I see the shorts tomorrow night.

Best Documentary Short

The Winner: Sari's Mother
Dark Horse: Freeheld

See here.

Best Original Score

The Winner: Dario Marianelli- Atonement
Dark Horse: Michael Giacchino- Ratatouille

A seeming lock for Marianelli since Greenwood's There Will Be Blood score wasn't eligible. But again, Ratatouille scares me in every category.

Best Original Song

The Winner: Hansard/Irglova- "Falling Slowly" from Once
Dark Horse: Menken/Schwartz- "So Close" from Enchanted

The most important award for me. See here.

But the hands down most awesome part about this year's Oscar ceremony is knowing that Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova are going to perform "Falling Slowly" in front of 40 million viewers, and then watch the sales of Once and its soundtrack skyrocket.

So that it's. All 24. I'll be watching on Sunday, and cursing like a sports fan when the announcements go against me. How this post, which could have been just a list, grew to nearly 3,000 words I have no idea. But thanks for reading.

My totals for, the curious- No Country wins 4, Ratatouille, Atonement, and Transformers win 2, and then 14 other films (including Juno, Diving Bell, and Blood) win one apiece. A big goose egg for Michael Clayton, alas.

2008 Oscar Predictions- Dave

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Atonement

No Country for Old Men has been the dominant picture of the year. It has won more awards than any other film. It was number one on more top ten lists than any other film. It has more four star reviews than any other film. It is running at a higher “fresh” percentage than any other of the best picture nominees. Basically, No Country for Old Men has set itself up to be the movie to beat on Oscar night, and I do not think any other movie will come close.

No Country for Old Men offers the most holistic movie of the five nominees. It is perfect in every way that a movie can be. Juno and Michael Clayton are both heralded for their strong script and top-notch performances. There Will Be Blood has the standout performance of the year, which may detract from the movie as a whole because Daniel Day-Lewis is the movie.

This leaves my dark horse: Atonement. Atonement won at the BAFTA’s and the Golden Globes. While the BAFTA’s may not be a good indicator of Best Picture winners (Last year, The Queen won the same award) it may have the British vote. Adding on the Hollywood Foreign Press voting it Best Picture over No Country for Old Men may sway some of the voters’ viewpoint.

I have seen Atonement twice and it held up well the second time around. This could be the movie’s reward as it was snubbed for actor, actress, director, and – arguably – another supporting actress nomination.

However, I still would take No Country for Old Men to the bank.

Best Achievement in Directing

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Tony Gilroy, Jason Reitman, and Paul Thomas Anderson have their nominations as their reward, leaving three men to battle it out for Best Director.

The Coen Brothers have an outstanding film that is being toted as a masterpiece. Schnabel has an amazing film that benefits from his singular vision. Who will win this clash of the titans?

I think the Coen Brothers will garner the award because No Country for Old Men is a juggernaut and they won the DGA and BAFTA, while Schnabel’s landmark win has been the Golden Globe. Plus, I do not know if the Academy would like to reward a man who said he was going to wear pajamas to the award show.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

When Daniel Day-Lewis wins, I would like his speech to go like this: “Ladies and gentlemen… I’ve traveled over half our globe to be here tonight. I couldn’t get away sooner because my new BAFTA was coming in at my London home and I had to see about it. That award is now glistening on my mantle and is paying me a $50,000 bonus. I have one Oscar already, and sixty other awards. So, ladies and gentlemen… If I say I’m an actor you will agree. You made a great choice here, but bear you in mind; I may not have won if I was not careful. Out of all the men that beg for this award, maybe one in twenty will be actors; the rest will be amateurs – men trying to get between you and the studio. Even if one gets lucky, and has the skills, he will know nothing about acting and they will rely on their co-stars. This is the way it works. Ladies and gentlemen, in conclusion, I say, I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE! SLURP! I DRINK IT UP!”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Should Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Best Dark Horse Chance: Marion Cotillard – La Môme (also known as La Vie En Rose)

Julie Christie’s graceful and sorrowful work in Away from Her is the best female performance of the year. Similar to Daniel Day-Lewis the movie is enveloped in her character to a point that everyone – save Gordon Pinsent – in the movie gets lost. Her performance was that good.

Marion Cotillard has earned some press for her transformation into Edith Piaf. However, she does not seem to have the same heartbreaking rendition as Christie.

How Cate Blanchett snuck into this grouping, I will never know. Congratulations to Laura Linney and Ellen Page, but your time is not now. I believe these two actresses will be rewarded some day for their work.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild

Javier Bardem, get your speech ready.

Nobody has a shot in this category because Bardem has dominated this category at every award show, in every possible way.

I choose Hal Holbrook at the dark horse because he may pull an “Alan Arkin” and win for a lifetime of work.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Should Win: Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Best Dark Horse Chance: Ruby Dee – American Gangster

The most wide open race at the Oscars this year. There are a lot of memorable performances and all of these women have won multiple awards along the way, except for Atonement’s Saoirse Ronan.

I read in Entertainment Weekly that Tilda Swinton had the best chance after her BAFTA win. I disagree with this. Even though her role in Michael Clayton is strong, I can not remember a true “Oscar scene” for her. Maybe I missed it, but there was not that moment where I said, “This is where she wins it.” Though her work throughout the film was steadfast, it almost seemed too workmanlike.

Cate Blanchett should probably not win for I’m Not There. The notion of a female playing a man – or vice versa – is not Oscar worthy, challenging, or taboo as it once was. She may have the most nuanced performance out of any player in the field, but Amy Ryan’s performance in Gone Baby Gone was more daunting and engaging. Ryan’s performance wraps you in her initial hysteria, but you really do not like her by the end of the film. That alone makes her more worthy in my book than Blanchett. Disappointedly, I do not think Oscar voters will share my sentiments.

The outsider, who is gaining momentum, is Ruby Dee. I think she has the best chance to steal it away from everyone because of a long career and a true matriarch in American Gangster.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Will Win: Diablo Cody – Juno
Should Win: Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Best Dark Horse Chance: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, and Jim Capobianco – Ratatouille

This award has been locked up for weeks by Cody.

Gilroy’s complex script is superior to Cody’s in its depth and vocabulary. However, Cody’s work pulls on the heart far more than any scene in Michael Clayton.

Jenkins and Oliver were rewarded with nominations for their uniquely touching scripts, but that is all they will receive.

This leaves the crew from Ratatouille for the dark horse. A warm script that was much better than people initially gave it credit for in pre-production.

Ultimately this is Diablo Cody’s award.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

Sometimes a category should be decided by how hard the people work in it. It almost seems unfair that the Coen Brothers did the least amount of work this year, and will win the Oscar for adapted screenplay.

Paul Thomas Anderson has received three nominations for his writing already, but has gotten overlooked every time. This should be his year, but the power of No Country for Old Men will overpower his gloriously bleak script.

Christopher Hampton and Ronald Harwood received nominations because their works are powerful and innovative, but in a crowded field, they will be lost behind the Coen Brothers.

Sarah Polley’s nomination was her reward this year, but it is a promising start to her new avenue in filmmaking.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

With the exception of There Will Be Blood, this category’s nominees would be winners in any other year. It is that crowded of a field this year.

Roger Deakins has never won an Oscar. Never. To me, this was the most shocking thing I read about Oscar history. Of all the movies he has shot, all the technologies he has been on the ground floor of, and he has never won… Until this year. This is his year because of an outstanding career and for the dazzling cinematography of No Country for Old Men.

However, I personally do not think this was Deakins’ best work. It was not even his best work this year. While his work on the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford is more harrowing, No Country for Old Men has the broader audience and appeal.

Seamus McGarvey did a wonderful job on Atonement and I expect him to win an award one day. He did have a “money” moment, the Dunkirk five minute tracking shot, but that will not be enough in this year.

This leaves multiple winner, Janusz Kaminski. He actually has the best work of the year, but will be overlooked because of Deakins and the fact that he has two Oscars at home all ready. This is truly a shame for his inventive and beautiful work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Achievement in Editing

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild and There Will Be Blood do not benefit from short running times. The long, purposeful silences in both films may not get them the recognition for the pacing of the film. However, There Will Be Blood was one of the quickest three hour movies I have sat through in recent memory.

No Country for Old Men will get the award because – as Brokeback Mountain found out – it is difficult to NOT win Best Picture without winning Best Editing. Ultimately, the Coen Brothers will walk away with four statuettes from the evening.

However, the two interesting movies are The Bourne Ultimatum and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Bourne Ultimatum’s frenetic pacing makes it the most exciting movie of the year. The editing is one of those elements in the movie that make the movie excel beyond a solid action film into an excellent one. Plus, it won the BAFTA and two other editing awards.

I feel that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly cannot be discounted because it has the most unique editing, which is why I think it has a chance to pull off an upset. The insertion of black panels, while not revelation, is an addition to the film, similar to the overall editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

American Gangster and There Will Be Blood are not remembered for their fine art direction. They are period recreations, where American Gangster uses existing places and There Will Be Blood is sparsely decorated.

The Golden Compass falls into a similar mold of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but without the same freshness of it all.

The two real competitors in this category will be Atonement and Sweeney Todd. Atonement has glamorous set direction and an epic scale to match. Sweeney Todd features a grim world created by past Oscar winners. Ultimately, I think Atonement will win the category for the re-creation of the evacuation of Dunkirk.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Costume design tends to be awarded to a movie where the scope of the costumes is awe inspiring or for costumes that are truly out of this world. Sweeney Todd and La Môme do not have the overly bizarre element working for them, nor do they have a wide scope.

While Across the Universe may have the unique element working for it, there is not one costume that I distinctly remember.

Atonement does have one of the most memorable – and talked about – costumes of the year in Keira Knightley’s green dress. I believe the period drama wins another technical award for its expansive work.

Similarly, this is the same reason why I think Elizabeth: The Golden Age has an outside chance.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Best Dark Horse Chance: Norbit

La Môme does not have anything spectacular about its make up. They may have had a difficult time working on Marion Cotillard’s hair, but nothing truly stands out for me.

Norbit has a chance because of two words: Rick Baker. He is nominated for this award every year it seems.

The creators behind The Pirates of the Caribbean lost last year, but will make up (HA!) for it this year. Granted, they did not reinvent the wheel, but their work is more admirable and difficult than the other two.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: 3:10 to Yuma

Dario Marianelli’s exquisite and singular score for Atonement make it the clear leader in this category, seeing as Jonny Greenwood was not eligible.

Michael Clayton’s haunting score, The Kite Runner’s somber music, and the glee of Ratatouille do not compare to Atonement’s vibrant and dramatic score.

This leaves the lone outside, 3:10 to Yuma. While energetic and engaging, it lacks the presence of Atonement’s score. This is why I feel Atonement will win this category with minimal problems.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Will Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Should Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

There should be no competition in this category. The only way that Once loses this category is if the Academy has a fit about its own ridiculous nomination rules and disqualifies it. Otherwise, this category is a slam dunk.

Best Sound Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

While Transformers had a plethora of sound effects and did an excellent job at it, it should not win. However, it will because of those aspects. No Country for Old Men was much more reliant on its sound to create a behind-the-camera effect that enhances the movie, like the editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

3:10 to Yuma is grand in the scope of its sound, but not much more. Ratatouille does a good job, but that is merely in terms of an animated film.

I penciled The Bourne Ultimatum in because it already has won some awards for its sound effects, but I do not think the Academy will look at that as a positive.

Best Sound Effects Editing

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

See above. I really can not explain this category.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers
Best Dark Horse Chance: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

This should be an easy category because Transformers possessed a lot of special effects, which were really the star of the movie. It took over 80 hours per frame to create a scene in which a Transformer appears.

The Golden Compass will get thrown by the wayside as people are reminded too much of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but the effects are nowhere near the level that those two franchises are.

As for Pirates of the Caribbean, they present the best dark horse chance. Why them? Oscar history likes repeat winners in this category. Recall 2001 through 2003? Lord of the Rings won every year. Did Fellowship of the Ring deserve the award? Yes. Did The Two Towers deserve the award? Yes, it expounded upon the wondrous effects in Fellowship with the inclusion of Gollum. Did Return of the King up the ante? No. Did Jim Rygiel get his third Oscar? Yes. Why? The Academy likes repeat winners, like Dennis Muren and Stan Winston.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille
Best Dark Horse Chance: Persepolis

Can someone down at the Academy’s office explain to me how Surf’s Up got a nomination over The Simpson’s Movie? Anyone? Please, feel free to.

This leaves two real contenders for this category. Up first is Persepolis, a critically raved about film that has more meaning and heart than Ratatouille.

However, Ratatouille – in addition to being one of my favorite films of the year – is a part of the Mouse House. I would bet on those guys every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Beaufort – Israel
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

I have not seen one of these movies, but Beaufort has gotten a lot of praise.

However, the Academy’s rules are bogus in this category. They have the potential for an all-star gathering in this category, but ruled out The Band’s Visit, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Lust, Caution, and 4 Months, 3 Threes, and 2 Days. I smell a rule re-write coming.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: No End in Sight
Should Win: No End in Sight
Best Dark Horse Chance: Taxi to the Dark Side

No End in Sight was one of the best films of the year and this should be its reward. The control and focus of this movie is beyond reproach and holds more of an impact than Fahrenheit 9/11.

While Sicko may have the “celebrity” appeal of Michael Moore, it lacks the passion and grandeur of his past works. Additionally, I have never heard of War Dance and Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience.

This leaves the much lauded Taxi to the Dark Side. What hurts this film’s chance though is its late release in the year.

Totals

No Country for Old Men – 6, Atonement – 3, Transformers – 3, Away from Her – 1, Beaufort – 1, I’m Not There – 1, Juno – 1, No End in Sight – 1, Once – 1, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – 1, Ratatouille – 1, There Will Be Blood – 1

And now- Top Ten Lovies Stories

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Top Ten Love Stories… That Don’t End Happily Ever After…

Feeling blue this Valentine’s Day? Looking to delve into misery so that you don’t feel alone and alienated by the Hallmark holiday? Then this is the list for you.

Here are the top ten movie love stories where the lovers do not get together in the end.

SPOILERS!

Honorable Mention: Before Sunrise, The English Patient, Forrest Gump, and Moulin Rouge

10. Vanilla Sky – The entire second half of the movie is really just Tom Cruise’s imagination. His hope and desire to be with Penelope Cruz actually never came to fruitition, and the heartbreaking part is that we see the life that he truly wanted to have. This is a good movie for a person who dreams about what might have been with his or her lover. Also, I had a weird fascination with this movie when it came out. Maybe it struck a chord, maybe it was a Tom Cruise man-crush, or maybe I just really like Cameron Crowe movies. It is probably a combination of all three.

9. The Fly – James Cameron once said that every movie he makes is a love story at heart. The Fly is in that vein with Jeff Goldblum and Geena Davis in love, but torn apart by Goldblum’s scientific quest. This movie has regained appreciation over the years, which is wonderful to see. Ultimately, this is a good movie for a person who lost his or her lover because their lover was too involved with his or her work.

8. Out of Sight – Steven Soderbergh’s crime story has a good, law abiding girl falling in love with a bank robbing, charismatic George Clooney (NOTE: Clooney is not a man, he is his own category). While Clooney and Jennifer Lopez’s chemistry on the screen is fiery, their relationship on-set was strained, at best. However, their characters love can not come together because she has to arrest him when he is breaking the law. Even though she hesitates, Clooney forces her to make the right choice and not compromise her ethics… More than they have already been compromised.

Out of Sight is for a person whose love is incarcerated… Or a career criminal.


7. Annie Hall – Woody Allen’s finest hour. The whole movie is a build-up to a relationship that will never happen.

This movie is for someone who has been friends with someone for a very long time, but has never gotten together with their significant other.

6. Philadelphia – An amazing soundtrack and Tom Hanks’ finest performance in a golden career. What tends to get overlooked in Philadelphia is the love between Hanks and Banderas. Banderas cares so much for Hanks: Feeding him meds, taking him to the emergency room, doting on him, and wearing a matching Halloween costume.

Philadelphia is for a person who has lost his or her lover to any illness.

5. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – This is my second favorite foreign language film of all-time (I don’t know where The Diving Bell and the Butterfly may fall, though. DO YOU HEAR THAT LANDMARK!?). This movie is beautiful in every single aspect, as it captured four Oscars out of ten nominations.

At the core of this movie are two love stories. One about two lovers who can not communicate how they feel to one another, and the other about two lovers who lead vastly different lives.
Ang Lee excellent constructs a tale of failed love as neither of these couples can ever really have the chance to get to be with one another.

This movie is for someone whose love has left them for reasons unknown.

4. Casablanca – If you don’t know about this movie, I am sorry. I can not help you.

3. The Lives of Others – 2007’s winner of the Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film, and deservedly so. The love between Koch and Gedeck in Communist Germany is harrowing as lies, the government, and a desire for freedom tear them apart. Gedeck sacrifices herself for Koch, leaving him with the memories of what they shared.

The Lives of Others is for anyone who has sacrificed something for the one they loved.

2. Atonement – Betrayal, jealously, immaturity all hamper the love between Knightley and McAvoy in Joe Wright’s film. When Knightley’s younger sister “misinterprets” what she sees, it results in McAvoy being sent to prison. While Knightley and McAvoy try to be together, their love is futile as war tears them even further apart.

Atonement is for someone who has lost his or her lover because of another person’s intervening.

1. Brokeback Mountain – Entertainment Weekly recently called this a “Contemporary Masterpiece.” It is hard to argue against Ang Lee’s compelling drama about two lovers who can not come to terms with who they are. Mesmerizing performances are everywhere in this drama about two cowboys in 1960’s Wyoming. Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger turn in career-defining performances as the aforementioned lovers. Gyllenhaal’s unconditional love for Ledger is admirable as all he wants in life is to be with the one he loves. Ledger’s refusal to admit to himself who he really is condemns him to loneliness until it is too late.

Outstanding cinematography, an elegant score, and the most heartbreaking final scene in recent history leave the viewer breathless.

Brokeback Mountain is for anyone who has had a relationship fail because this movie is that beautiful and holds many truths within.

2007's Bottom Five Film's- Duncan

This list was even harder to fill out than the top 20, because perhaps to justify to myself spending so much money on movies, I rarely walk out of the theater thinking something was just downright bad.

So these are the five most disappointing movies I saw in 2007- that's not to say they didn't have redeeming qualities, or good intentions, but it the end they just couldn't pull it off. I can see why some critics would harsh on Bee Movie or Beowulf, for example, but I can't imagine expecting more than I got in either case. So all five of these are "Bad Movies That Had the Potential to Be Good," to varying degrees.

5. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (my review)

Some movies are twenty minutes too long, some half an hour, and usually it's forgivable in the face of good acting, beautiful cinematography, and a compelling story. But an entire excess hour really saddled down AJJCRF until it just became too much.

I'm eventually buying this and editing my own version on Windows Movie Maker or something- is that possible- and then I'll have a masterpiece.


4. The Golden Compass (my review)

Oh, book to film adaptations. Will you ever work? The previous entry had too much of the book that inspired it, but The Golden Compass had too little of its source material. Plus they got caught in that interminable family film limbo and watered down most of the parts of the book that were actually, you know, interesting.

3. Lust, Caution (my review)

Boring. Unnecessarily sensational. Overly mannered. Too much Mah-Jong. I'm already bored writing about this again.

2. Sunshine (me ranking it dead last on the summer countdown)

So close! Much like I Am Legend, it completely falls apart in a third act finale that's implausible, hackneyed, and gross. I wasn't sure if it made it worse or better (or higher or lower on this list) because the first two acts were so well executed.

The difference of course- I wasn't too surprised when I Am Legend fell apart, because Francis Lawrence is not Danny Boyle.


1. Before the Devil Know's You're Dead (me calling it the most overrated film of the year)

At least Rotten Tomatoes for Sunshine was a tentative 60% among the "top critics" (i. e. the more legimate than this blog could ever be critics), trying to warn me that it falls apart eventually. Those same critics were agog to the tune of 92% for Sidney Lumet's miseryfest of botched robberies and angrily slammed phones.

It just seems ultimately pointless- Really, movie? Robbing your parents jewelry store is a bad idea? I had no idea that betraying your family in a desperate attempt to skip the country before being investigated for tax fraud would go wrong. Thanks for the life lesson.

Also it completely wasted one of the coolest titles of the year, which is the real tragedy. I was stoked when the words "May you be in Heaven half an hour..." appeared on the screen, and then the title came in to complete it, but it was all downhill from there.

2007's Bottom Five Film's- Dave

Best Movie That Was Bad, But Had The Potential To Be Good:

The Kingdom – All-star cast? Check. Decent writer? More or less a check. Good story? Surprisingly, yes. Good director? Check.

So what the hell happened?

Honestly, I do not know. My best guess is that I think the director, Peter Berg, chooses to showcase the action pieces more than the heart that lies with Carnahan’s script. Even though the action pieces are quite good, it almost becomes too much in a film that could have had as much soul as the best action movie of the year, The Bourne Ultimatum.

5. Spider-Man 3 – Three is a crowd. The latest (‘Cause there is more to come) installment in the web-crawler’s trilogy falls short of the previous two. While it may not be a horrible movie, it is certainly a disappointment.


4. Next – “Las Vegas showroom magician Cris Johnson has a secret which torments him: he can see a few minutes into the future. Sick of the examinations he underwent as a child and the interest of the government and medical establishment in his power, he lies low under an assumed name in Vegas, performing cheap tricks and living off small-time gambling "winnings." But when a terrorist group threatens to detonate a nuclear device in Los Angeles, government agent Callie Ferris must use all her wiles to capture Cris and convince him to help her stop the cataclysm.”

That is the plot synopsis from IMDB.com. The scary part is that this is not the most ridiculous thing in the movie. Julianne Moore plays a tough FBI agent, but the cream of the crop is Nicolas Cage’s hairpiece.

3. Shrek the Third – I kind of knew what to expect going into this movie, but it was still bad. The joy that was in the previous two is just not there anymore and they plan on making two more films. Ugh.

2. Rush Hour 3 – I did not see this film, yet the awfulness is so palpable I had to put it number two.

Actually, I put it here because this movie raises more questions than answers.
Consider the following:

• Why was there a six year gap between Rush Hour 2 and Rush Hour 3? It is not like Chris Tucker wasn’t available.
• Did Rush Hour 2 leave that many questions unanswered?
• What does $50 million + $53.25 million + $7 million equal? You could say $110.25 million, and you would be correct. How about the paydays for Tucker, Chan, and Ratner? That would be correct too. How does this happen?
• Tucker’s character is from California, Chan’s is from China, yet the movie is set in France. What?
• You can clearly see the ridiculousness of this all

1. Lions for Lambs – I figured this would actually be a good movie, if not a great one. I looked and saw that Robert Redford was directing and producing the film, which has yielded such results as Ordinary People and A River Runs Through It. I saw Matthew Michael Carnahan, who is an up and coming writer and brother to Joe Carnahan of Narc fame. I saw Tom Cruise, who I admire and has previously worked with Joe Carnahan on Narc for great results. I saw Academy Award winner Meryl Streep, and rising stars Derek Luke and Michael Pena. I figured this was the first movie coming out of the United Artist stable under Tom Cruise’s guidance and he would not allow it to fail.

I was horribly wrong. This film fails on so many levels it almost mystifies me. Similar to this year’s All the King’s Men, I found myself wondering how all this talent just went to waste.

The only positive to this movie is that is clocks in at 88 minutes.

Consensus Top 20

For the curious, and because I like math, here's Dave and my top 20's combined by a simple points system:

19t. Juno 7
19t. American Gangster 7
18. Ratatouille 10
16t. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 11
16t. The Mist 11
15. No End in Sight 12
14. Eastern Promises 13
10t. Grindhouse 15
10t. Michael Clayton 15
10t. Knocked Up 15
10t. 3:10 to Yuma 15
9. Away From Her 17
8. The Bourne Ultimatum 18
7. Rescue Dawn 22
6. Atonement 28
5. Zodiac 32
4. Once 33
3. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street 34
2. There Will Be Blood 35
1. No Country for Old Men 40

So that's the Reverse Shot master list, I suppose. Tomorrow we have the worst of the year for you, and we see how well we did with our Oscar predictions.

2007's Top 20 Films- Dave

Nine Movies That Would Have Probably Made My Top Twenty If They Had Arrived In Milwaukee Sooner, Or If I Had Made An Effort To See Them:

Away from Her, Control, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days, Gone Baby Gone, King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters, Michael Clayton, The Orphanage, and Persepolis.

Only Away from Her, Gone Baby Gone, King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters, and Michael Clayton made it to the Milwaukee market and I never got around to seeing any of them. Hopefully, I will catch Michael Clayton as it is going into a re-release for an Oscar run. As for the remaining five, they have not hit the Milwaukee market yet, but – assuredly – I will see them when they do. I have a feeling that they are all spectacular films based on their trailers, the reviews, and the award nominations they are receiving.

20. 28 Weeks Later
19. Breach
18. Juno
17. The Namesake
16. Knocked Up
15. 3:10 to Yuma
14. Into the Wild
13. Rescue Dawn
12. Ratatouille
11. The Bourne Ultimatum

I think that Breach and The Namesake could have been contenders for Best Supporting Actor if they had a campaign and a later release date. I am also not entirely blown away by Juno, though it is a very good movie. 3:10 to Yuma, Rescue Dawn, and – yes – 28 Weeks Later are all solidly crafted movies that I was unsure at first and all pleasantly surprised by.

I find the Best Picture talk for Into the Wild to be kind of crazy talk. I think the performances and cinematography are all top notch, but as an overall product, it does work that well for me.

Ratatouille and The Bourne Ultimatum are both outstanding fares for various reasons. I miss the early 1990’s because these two films would have garnered Best Picture buzz. The world has changed from the days of Beauty and the Beast and The Fugitive getting Best Picture nominations.

10. The Mist

I was initially reluctant to see this film because I know that Stephen King adaptations tend to be horrible. However, I figured the pairing of Frank Darabont and King has yielded good results in the past and I had nothing to do on a weekday afternoon.

This film’s focus is so sharp on the paranoia and power structures that arise with ordinary people in extraordinary circumstances. Though some labeled this a “B Movie,” it is nowhere near that in its portrayal of small townspeople.

Plus, the ending is surprising and still shocks me months after I first saw the film.

9. No End in Sight

Hey, look! A documentary! I rented this one a few weeks ago – on the same night that I rented The Namesake – and was entranced by it. Charles Ferguson’s film is not nearly as explosive as Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11, but the intimate interviews of people that do not support the war or have become disillusioned by it is mesmerizing. If you want to watch only one documentary on the conflict in Iraq, make it this one.

8. Eastern Promises

When I heard Cronenberg and Mortensen were re-teaming for another film, I was excited. Cronenberg’s Eastern Promises may lack the down-to-earth feel of A History of Violence, but it is still packs a powerful punch.

Mortensen’s performance was probably the most unhinged of any actor this year. The raw emotion – and body parts – that he put on display here is admirable. Supported by an outstanding supporting cast, Eastern Promises was one of the most satisfying films of the year.

7. Once

It should get nominations for Best Song, but it probably will not. It should probably merit a Best Picture nomination, but the Academy has not nominated a film for solely Best Picture since Grand Hotel.

This is the little musical that could and like Spielberg says, “This movie gave me enough hope for the rest of year.”

6. Grindhouse

Robert Rodriguez made a documentary / lecture called Film is Dead. I would like to make an addendum to that saying the cinematic experience is dead.

There are a few exceptions where going to the movies becomes an experience. Whether it is because people dress up like the characters, religiously attend midnight showings of the movie, or know every single line of the film.

However, Grindhouse was the most fun at the movies all year. It was a unique experience that allowed people to stand up and cheer, openly cringe, and laugh hysterically at things that traditional Hollywood movies would not cue you to laugh at.

5. Atonement

I was completely fascinated with this movie after I saw the trailer. The movie lives up to the incredible hype that surrounds it constructing a beautifully tragic tale.

After I had seen the film, I told a friend about it and how excellent I thought it was. He said that he did not want to because “it seems like a British movie that is created solely for the purpose of making an Academy Awards run.” I could not disagree with him more, citing the stellar performances, outstanding editing, and the overall scope of the film.

4. There Will Be Blood

“Drainage! Drainage, Eli! Drained dry, you boy! If you have a milkshake and I have a milkshake and I have a straw and my straw reaches across the room and starts to drink your milkshake. I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!”

Daniel Day-Lewis sells this movie all by himself.

3. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Initially, people wondered if Tim Burton’s distinct visual style would hinder the film. I think the end product has silenced anyone who ever did question that.

Burton’s delightful film cruises along with toe-tapping songs, Johnny Depp’s memorable performance, and an exquisite complimentary cast.

I wish this film would get all the Academy Award nominations it deserves. People would argue that musicals tend to get overlooked by the Academy, but they should stop and notice the excellence this film exudes.


2. Zodiac

If I had run of the Academy Awards, Zodiac would be the runaway leader in nominations. However, because the film was released in March and has had a minimal campaign, it will get entirely overlooked come Oscar time.

Remarkable performances from everyone made this the best ensemble piece in my eyes. From Gyllenhaal’s restraint to the always undervalued Anthony Edwards everybody had a genuine feel to them. Robert Downey Jr.’s performance was arguably one of the best of the year, but in a crowded field, he has almost entirely been forgotten.

The cinematography is an awesome spectacle as it is the first film to completely use the Vesper-Thomson film system. The editing, score, and attention to detail are heightened to a point that you feel like you are really in the Bay Area.

James Vanderbilt, having improved his writing skills since Basic, is at the top of his game and I hold out hope that he will be recognized for his work come January 22nd.

In the end, the person who deserves the most credit for Zodiac is David Fincher. His meticulous work and research on the film makes this film the highlight of his career. This movie – along with one other this year – left me completely breathless at the end, even though I knew what the outcome was going to be. Just like…

1. No Country for Old Men

This is movie perfection. There is no other way to describe it. I feel that no matter how many adjectives I throw out there they simply will not do this movie justice.

So much has already been said about the film that I feel I can only add one thing: Javier Bardem is not the “ultimate badass.” I would call him the ultimate car wreck. There has never been a character that is so horrific and methodical, yet I can not take my eyes off of him. I want to see what he will do next and I know that it is going to be something atrocious. That is how I know the Coen Brothers truly captured something menacing.

Most Overrated Film of the Year:

Charlie Wilson’s War – Yes, the two male leads are quite good. The script is very good for about 75 minutes. However, the more I think about this movie, the more I do not like it. I view Julia Roberts as a waste of space, Mike Nichols seems content to let his stars do what they want, and I wonder how the heck it managed a Best Picture Comedy or Musical nomination at the Golden Globes.

Best Guilty Pleasure Film of the Year:

300 – It made a gazillion dollars and has amazing visuals, but the dialogue is a tad ridiculous and – at times – it really quite cheesy. In ten years this movie may still be heralded as a visual achievement, but I do not think it will age well. Still, Snyder’s unique vision is entertaining for its slow-motion fight scenes and bombastic catchphrases.