2008 Oscar Predictions- Duncan

So it's all come down to this, it seems. Never before have I seen all of the Best Picture nominees, heading into the ceremony. I've read awardsdaily.com, I've read NYT's The Carpetbagger, I've pored over charts and figures, and now I have to put myself on record.

Last year, I went 17 for 24- I missed best animated short because I should have went with my gut, not the experts. I missed Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy because I should have used common sense. I missed Happy Feet over Cars because I underestimated penguins. Otherwise, I missed some unpredictable upsets in cinematography and Foreign Language that nobody saw coming.

What will happen on Sunday? Most of the major categories are locks, except the two actresses. The technical awards are always anybody's guess. And then there are the complete wild cards like documentary short, and best original song.

Well, here's my best guess.

Best Picture

The Winner: No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Michael Clayton

Just for the record, we're doing "Dark Horse" picks this year as potential spoilers, but that doesn't mean I think Michael Clayton has a real chance. Nothing has dominated the awards since like No Country since Return of the King, and we all remember what happened there. There's just no derailing it, but if there were some bizarro world situation where No Country and There Will Be Blood split the vote, then Clayton could emerge from the dust on the strength of it's triple nominated cast.

The love for Michael Clayton has baffled some- I think the Academy misses non-Ocean's movies Steven Soderbergh so much that they'll take the nearest substitute. But I think it's great to see an atmospheric thriller recognized in major categories, which wouldn't have been unusual at all forty years ago.

The Rest:
Juno seems like a paper tiger to me, a gimme nomination for a crowd favorite. I liked it much, much more than it's frequent comparison partner, Little Miss Sunshine, but I have no fear of it stealing the Oscar this year- LMS seemed like a real possibility in 07.

Atonement is definitely an odd case- everyone outside America is head over heels for it-we thought it was okay. I wonder if it was marketed differently (and more effectively) overseas- the overall lukewarm reaction here seems to be from people that expected a sweeping, epic romance, and got instead a lighter, quicker meditation on nuance and authorship. Maybe if people could talk about what I mean by that without giving the ending away, the promotional campaign for the film could have been more direct and original than the standard Knightley/McAvoy looks of longing posters.

There Will Be Blood is brilliant, and definitely the second best film of the five, but I get the feeling that if No Country weren't around, there's no way it would have the award sewn up- the third act has proved too crazy and divisive to make it a real front-runner.

Best Director

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

On the strength of his Golden Globe win, and the general feeling that Diving Bell got the shaft, I was leaning toward predicting a victory for Schnabel here. But his general antipathy for the Awards circuit hasn't helped his image, and the Coens took home the all important DGA award.

The Rest:
Tony Gilroy (Clayton) has the makings of an auteur, but is still a first timer and a longshot. Paul Thomas Anderson (Blood) is earning a reputation as a meticulous filmmaker that can create breathtaking films, but I think his achievement is being far too overshadowed by his star- if he returns to the ensemble format for his next film, I could imagine him easily winning a trophy. Reitman (Juno)? I keep forgetting he was even nominated. Sorry, but it's true.

Best Actor

The Winner: Daniel Day Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: George Clooney- Michael Clayton

Little left to say about this one, really. I sometimes wonder if I'll ever go back to the way I was before last year, when I started following awards news and categories with clear favorites like this one (and Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren last year) lost any surprise. But then I remember how much I love this stuff. Even Clooney admits his loss is a foregone conclusion.

The Rest:
Personally, I was always baffled by Viggo Mortensen's lack of respect for taking what JRR Tolkien wrote as a horribly flat character and making him come alive. Maybe this nomination (for Eastern Promises) is for that trilogy, really. Tommy Lee Jones I'm sure did a wonderful job, but it seems like he got some guilt votes from all the academy members that didn't want to see In the Valley of Elah and get bummed out. Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) gets a nomination for coolness- he won't actually have a chance until he stars in a "serious" film, which is a shame.

Best Actress

The Winner: Julie Christie- Away From Her
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard- La Vie En Rose

But then again, there are still races that are too close to call- But I think Christie breaks a virtual tie with Cotillard on name recognition alone. The surprise adapted screenplay nomination for Away From Her suggests that it's high-profile enough to secure this award.

The Rest:
Laura Linney (The Savages) seems destined for one of those career recognition Oscars in the supporting category someday- she's always a contender, never quite at the top. Ellen Page (Juno) was in a comedy, and you know the rules on that. Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) is the only one here with no shot at all- nobody wins Best Actress for a critically panned flop (I'm sure Dave will look something up to prove me wrong on that, though.)

Supporting Actor

The Winner: Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford

I've heard some complaints that Bardem is going to take home a statue for mostly being silent, but I don't think that's the case- just because sociopathy is a lack of recognizable human emotions doesn't mean that it's easy to pull off. If it was just someone sleepwalking through a wordless part, the character would be boring, instead of terrifying. Casey Affleck would have a much better chance for his nervy, jangling role in Assassination if, you know, anybody saw it.

The Rest:
Hal Holbrook is apparently a respected film veteran, and kudos to him, but it's quite clear that no one had any patience for Into the Wild for whatever reason. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) just looked surly for a while- this nomination baffles me- really? Someone in an Aaron Sorkin scripted movie was irritable and made wisecracks? No way! And Tom Wilkinson was the heart and soul of Michael Clayton, but I guess he was out-crazied by Bardem.

Supporting Actress
The Winner: Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There
Dark Horse: Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone

I was too lazy to do the "will win" and "should win" distinctions (like Dave did), as this is really the only likely winner I would strongly disagree with. Really? She plays a man, that's awesome. Who cares?

I think it has a lot to do with impersonating someone, versus making an audience believe in a character from scratch. Anne Proulx, in her steaming-mad indictment of the Crash-Brokeback fiasco, touched upon this much more eloquently:

Hollywood loves mimicry, the conversion of a film actor into the spittin' image of a once-living celeb. But which takes more skill, acting a person who strolled the boulevard a few decades ago and who left behind tapes, film, photographs, voice recordings and friends with strong memories, or the construction of characters from imagination and a few cold words on the page? I don't know. The subject never comes up.

This issue might have tipped my choice in Best Actress (Edith Piaf v. fictional character) as well.

The Rest:
Can we all agree to stop nominating old people who are only in two scenes of a film just because they're old? Hey, good for Ruby Dee (American Gangster), I wish her all the best and have nothing but respect for her career. But she barely has time for one note in her cameo role, let alone the several notes that Amy Ryan hit in multiple scenes. Saiorse Ronan holds the first half of Atonement together, but is spared the more challenging scenes of harrowing guilt that the other two actresses in her role had to deal with. Tilda Swinton would be another worthy winner, as she was more fleshed out into a character that the eponymous hero of Michael Clayton.

Best Original Screenplay

The Winner: Diablo Cody- Juno
Dark Horse: Brad Bird- Ratatouille

It would be hard to send home the only Blockbuster among the best picture nominees with absolutely nothing. And since it has zero chance in picture and director, and a teensy sliver of a chance in actress, it seems to have been decided long ago that Cody's script is the place to honor it. Personally, I enjoyed the film, but it seems hard to credit the script without mentioning that it takes a great cast to make all that slang palatable. And it's unique and all, sure, but how is it that much more impressive than, say, Clueless? Brad Bird's newest film is the most lauded animated feature since Beauty and the Beast, and makes me nervous about predicting all five categories it appears in. Everyone loves this film, especially the critical community.

The Rest:
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) and Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) team with Cody for a record number of female screenplay nominees, and more power to all three- Juno seems to be drawing all of the girl power vote though, despite Jenkins' deft human touches. Michael Clayton is tightly written by Tony Gilroy, but the strength of the film is more in the atmosphere and the performances- corrupt businesses and shady lawyers aren't exactly anything new.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Ronald Harwood- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Coens stand to win four statues apiece if everything goes their way, and they're the safest bet in this category, even though the actual writing of the screenplay was mostly done for them by Cormac McCarthy (he doesn't even use quotation marks- they could just scan most of the book and hand it out to people, for crying out loud). Hardwood, a recent winner for The Pianist, had the much more complex job of translating a slim, objectively sparse memoir of a paralyzed man into a sweeping, subjective movie experience - The BAFTA's went with Harwood, but they also went with Atonement for Best Picture...

The Rest:
Sarah Polley (Away From Her) surprised everyone, even one of the movie's biggest fans in yours truly, with a glad-to-be-here fifth nomination in this category. Christopher Hampton (Atonement) also had a weighty task in trimming Ian McEwan's pensive, thoughtful novel of reminiscence into a film with a rapt momentum. Paul Thomas Anderson has himself admitted that the second half of There Will Be Blood has little, if anything to do with Upton Sinclair's Oil!- so while a great script it has little chance at this Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

The Winner: Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Persepolis

It seemed like it would be a tough call, but honestly Ratatouille has been slamming the competition nearly everywhere else- Persepolis came out a little late in the states to turn back the tide, I'm afraid.

Best Documentary Feature

The Winner: No End in Sight
Dark Horse: Taxi to the Dark Side

All about Iraq this year- No End in Sight for the win. But my dark horse is currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of course, I haven't seen any of these, so I could be way off.

Best Foreign Film

The Winner: The Counterfeiters
Dark Horse: Katyn

All anyone knows for sure here is that the loser in this category is international cinema- these nominations make little sense. But the whole Academy votes for this category, so I browsed the subjects and found that Austria's The Counterfeiters is the true story of a Jewish counterfeiter forced to make foreign currency for th Nazis while in a concentration camp. And if you don't think dealing with true stories from the Holocaust is a surefire bet for the win, then you obviously have never watched the Oscars before.

Achievement in Editing

The Winner: Christopher Rouse- The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark Horse: "Roderick Jaynes"- No Country For Old Men

A head scratcher here- The Bourne Ultimatum took the Guild Award, but the traditional march toward Best Picture for No Country would give the Coens( and their pseudonym) the award here. I'm going with the guild in a close call, since they are nearly always right, but if I'm wrong I'll be pissed.

Achievement in Cinematography

The Winner: Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Dark Horse: Roger Deakins- No Country for Old Men

It seems weird to have to pick between Deakins work on No Country and Elswit's on Blood, since the landscape and pallet of the two films aren't very distinguishable to a non-DOP like myself. But since this guild is not a very accurate predictor, it's hard to give Elswit's victory there much weight. My gut is telling me that Janus Kaminski, the prohibitive favorite for his long, uncut shots from Children of Men last year, can't be ignored twice in a row.

Achievement in Makeup

The Winner: Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald- La Vie En Rose
Dark Horse: Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji- Norbit

I'm hoping for the Rose team here based on their BAFTA win recently. Otherwise, with Rick Baker's resume (Six (6!) Makeup Oscars, including the first one in 1981), Norbit may actually win an Academy Award. But seeing as Norbit pretty much lost Eddie Murphy an Oscar for being in theaters during last year's ceremony, I don't think that'll happen.

Achievement in Costuming

The Winner: Jacqueline Durran- Atonement
Dark Horse: Colleen Atwood- Sweeney Todd

Something is telling me that the green dress from Atonement is the only really memorable costume this year- Marit Allen is a threat for La Vie En Rose, but I think Atwood, a recent winner for Memoirs of a Geisha is the next likely bet.

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Winner: Farrar/Benza/Earl/Frazier- Transfomers
Dark Horse: Knoll/Gibson/Hickel/Frazier- Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End

Another agreed-upon lock- I guess they spent a lot of time making robots into cars. Otherwise, the team from Pirates won last year (that Frazier is the same guy, by the way, John Frazier- he's looking as good as Daniel Day Lewis and the Coen's for a statue).

Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Winner: O'Connell/Russell/Devlin- Transformers
Dark Horse: Thom/Semanick/Kane- Ratatouille

Based on recent history, this guild is usually wrong- sorry, No Country team. I say it falls to Kevin O'Connell and his team- now that he has outdone Randy Newman and been nominated for his 20th Oscar without a victory, I think he'll finally get let off the hook. Nobody can be that cruel- right, sound mixers of the world?

Achievement in Sound Editing

The Winner: Silvers/Thom- Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Hopkins/Van Der Ryn- Transformers

The two Best Picture nominees in this category are actually the two without past Oscar wins on the sound teams. I'm saying this will go to the two guys who won a few years ago for The Incredibles- Ratatouille can't walk away with just one Oscar, can it?

Achievement in Art Direction

The Winner: Ferreti/Lo Schiavo- Sweeney Todd
Dark Horse: Greenwood/Spencer- Atonement

This category tends to go to exotic and distinctive contenders, from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to Dick Tracy- and given Sleepy Hollow's win in 1999, I think Sweeney Todd has the best chance for the statue here. The Art Director's Guild went with both The Golden Compass and There Will Be Blood, but they're wrong as often as they're right. Plus, if I didn't disagree with the consensus on something, then my opinion wouldn't really mean anything, would it?

Best Animated Short

The Winner: My Love
Dark Horse: I Met the Walrus

See here.

Best Live Action Short

The Winner: At Night
Dark Horse: The Mozart of Pickpockets

This category I reserve the right to change after I see the shorts tomorrow night.

Best Documentary Short

The Winner: Sari's Mother
Dark Horse: Freeheld

See here.

Best Original Score

The Winner: Dario Marianelli- Atonement
Dark Horse: Michael Giacchino- Ratatouille

A seeming lock for Marianelli since Greenwood's There Will Be Blood score wasn't eligible. But again, Ratatouille scares me in every category.

Best Original Song

The Winner: Hansard/Irglova- "Falling Slowly" from Once
Dark Horse: Menken/Schwartz- "So Close" from Enchanted

The most important award for me. See here.

But the hands down most awesome part about this year's Oscar ceremony is knowing that Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova are going to perform "Falling Slowly" in front of 40 million viewers, and then watch the sales of Once and its soundtrack skyrocket.

So that it's. All 24. I'll be watching on Sunday, and cursing like a sports fan when the announcements go against me. How this post, which could have been just a list, grew to nearly 3,000 words I have no idea. But thanks for reading.

My totals for, the curious- No Country wins 4, Ratatouille, Atonement, and Transformers win 2, and then 14 other films (including Juno, Diving Bell, and Blood) win one apiece. A big goose egg for Michael Clayton, alas.

2008 Oscar Predictions- Dave

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Atonement

No Country for Old Men has been the dominant picture of the year. It has won more awards than any other film. It was number one on more top ten lists than any other film. It has more four star reviews than any other film. It is running at a higher “fresh” percentage than any other of the best picture nominees. Basically, No Country for Old Men has set itself up to be the movie to beat on Oscar night, and I do not think any other movie will come close.

No Country for Old Men offers the most holistic movie of the five nominees. It is perfect in every way that a movie can be. Juno and Michael Clayton are both heralded for their strong script and top-notch performances. There Will Be Blood has the standout performance of the year, which may detract from the movie as a whole because Daniel Day-Lewis is the movie.

This leaves my dark horse: Atonement. Atonement won at the BAFTA’s and the Golden Globes. While the BAFTA’s may not be a good indicator of Best Picture winners (Last year, The Queen won the same award) it may have the British vote. Adding on the Hollywood Foreign Press voting it Best Picture over No Country for Old Men may sway some of the voters’ viewpoint.

I have seen Atonement twice and it held up well the second time around. This could be the movie’s reward as it was snubbed for actor, actress, director, and – arguably – another supporting actress nomination.

However, I still would take No Country for Old Men to the bank.

Best Achievement in Directing

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Tony Gilroy, Jason Reitman, and Paul Thomas Anderson have their nominations as their reward, leaving three men to battle it out for Best Director.

The Coen Brothers have an outstanding film that is being toted as a masterpiece. Schnabel has an amazing film that benefits from his singular vision. Who will win this clash of the titans?

I think the Coen Brothers will garner the award because No Country for Old Men is a juggernaut and they won the DGA and BAFTA, while Schnabel’s landmark win has been the Golden Globe. Plus, I do not know if the Academy would like to reward a man who said he was going to wear pajamas to the award show.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

When Daniel Day-Lewis wins, I would like his speech to go like this: “Ladies and gentlemen… I’ve traveled over half our globe to be here tonight. I couldn’t get away sooner because my new BAFTA was coming in at my London home and I had to see about it. That award is now glistening on my mantle and is paying me a $50,000 bonus. I have one Oscar already, and sixty other awards. So, ladies and gentlemen… If I say I’m an actor you will agree. You made a great choice here, but bear you in mind; I may not have won if I was not careful. Out of all the men that beg for this award, maybe one in twenty will be actors; the rest will be amateurs – men trying to get between you and the studio. Even if one gets lucky, and has the skills, he will know nothing about acting and they will rely on their co-stars. This is the way it works. Ladies and gentlemen, in conclusion, I say, I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE! SLURP! I DRINK IT UP!”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Should Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Best Dark Horse Chance: Marion Cotillard – La Môme (also known as La Vie En Rose)

Julie Christie’s graceful and sorrowful work in Away from Her is the best female performance of the year. Similar to Daniel Day-Lewis the movie is enveloped in her character to a point that everyone – save Gordon Pinsent – in the movie gets lost. Her performance was that good.

Marion Cotillard has earned some press for her transformation into Edith Piaf. However, she does not seem to have the same heartbreaking rendition as Christie.

How Cate Blanchett snuck into this grouping, I will never know. Congratulations to Laura Linney and Ellen Page, but your time is not now. I believe these two actresses will be rewarded some day for their work.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild

Javier Bardem, get your speech ready.

Nobody has a shot in this category because Bardem has dominated this category at every award show, in every possible way.

I choose Hal Holbrook at the dark horse because he may pull an “Alan Arkin” and win for a lifetime of work.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Should Win: Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Best Dark Horse Chance: Ruby Dee – American Gangster

The most wide open race at the Oscars this year. There are a lot of memorable performances and all of these women have won multiple awards along the way, except for Atonement’s Saoirse Ronan.

I read in Entertainment Weekly that Tilda Swinton had the best chance after her BAFTA win. I disagree with this. Even though her role in Michael Clayton is strong, I can not remember a true “Oscar scene” for her. Maybe I missed it, but there was not that moment where I said, “This is where she wins it.” Though her work throughout the film was steadfast, it almost seemed too workmanlike.

Cate Blanchett should probably not win for I’m Not There. The notion of a female playing a man – or vice versa – is not Oscar worthy, challenging, or taboo as it once was. She may have the most nuanced performance out of any player in the field, but Amy Ryan’s performance in Gone Baby Gone was more daunting and engaging. Ryan’s performance wraps you in her initial hysteria, but you really do not like her by the end of the film. That alone makes her more worthy in my book than Blanchett. Disappointedly, I do not think Oscar voters will share my sentiments.

The outsider, who is gaining momentum, is Ruby Dee. I think she has the best chance to steal it away from everyone because of a long career and a true matriarch in American Gangster.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Will Win: Diablo Cody – Juno
Should Win: Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Best Dark Horse Chance: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, and Jim Capobianco – Ratatouille

This award has been locked up for weeks by Cody.

Gilroy’s complex script is superior to Cody’s in its depth and vocabulary. However, Cody’s work pulls on the heart far more than any scene in Michael Clayton.

Jenkins and Oliver were rewarded with nominations for their uniquely touching scripts, but that is all they will receive.

This leaves the crew from Ratatouille for the dark horse. A warm script that was much better than people initially gave it credit for in pre-production.

Ultimately this is Diablo Cody’s award.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

Sometimes a category should be decided by how hard the people work in it. It almost seems unfair that the Coen Brothers did the least amount of work this year, and will win the Oscar for adapted screenplay.

Paul Thomas Anderson has received three nominations for his writing already, but has gotten overlooked every time. This should be his year, but the power of No Country for Old Men will overpower his gloriously bleak script.

Christopher Hampton and Ronald Harwood received nominations because their works are powerful and innovative, but in a crowded field, they will be lost behind the Coen Brothers.

Sarah Polley’s nomination was her reward this year, but it is a promising start to her new avenue in filmmaking.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

With the exception of There Will Be Blood, this category’s nominees would be winners in any other year. It is that crowded of a field this year.

Roger Deakins has never won an Oscar. Never. To me, this was the most shocking thing I read about Oscar history. Of all the movies he has shot, all the technologies he has been on the ground floor of, and he has never won… Until this year. This is his year because of an outstanding career and for the dazzling cinematography of No Country for Old Men.

However, I personally do not think this was Deakins’ best work. It was not even his best work this year. While his work on the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford is more harrowing, No Country for Old Men has the broader audience and appeal.

Seamus McGarvey did a wonderful job on Atonement and I expect him to win an award one day. He did have a “money” moment, the Dunkirk five minute tracking shot, but that will not be enough in this year.

This leaves multiple winner, Janusz Kaminski. He actually has the best work of the year, but will be overlooked because of Deakins and the fact that he has two Oscars at home all ready. This is truly a shame for his inventive and beautiful work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Achievement in Editing

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild and There Will Be Blood do not benefit from short running times. The long, purposeful silences in both films may not get them the recognition for the pacing of the film. However, There Will Be Blood was one of the quickest three hour movies I have sat through in recent memory.

No Country for Old Men will get the award because – as Brokeback Mountain found out – it is difficult to NOT win Best Picture without winning Best Editing. Ultimately, the Coen Brothers will walk away with four statuettes from the evening.

However, the two interesting movies are The Bourne Ultimatum and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Bourne Ultimatum’s frenetic pacing makes it the most exciting movie of the year. The editing is one of those elements in the movie that make the movie excel beyond a solid action film into an excellent one. Plus, it won the BAFTA and two other editing awards.

I feel that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly cannot be discounted because it has the most unique editing, which is why I think it has a chance to pull off an upset. The insertion of black panels, while not revelation, is an addition to the film, similar to the overall editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

American Gangster and There Will Be Blood are not remembered for their fine art direction. They are period recreations, where American Gangster uses existing places and There Will Be Blood is sparsely decorated.

The Golden Compass falls into a similar mold of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but without the same freshness of it all.

The two real competitors in this category will be Atonement and Sweeney Todd. Atonement has glamorous set direction and an epic scale to match. Sweeney Todd features a grim world created by past Oscar winners. Ultimately, I think Atonement will win the category for the re-creation of the evacuation of Dunkirk.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Costume design tends to be awarded to a movie where the scope of the costumes is awe inspiring or for costumes that are truly out of this world. Sweeney Todd and La Môme do not have the overly bizarre element working for them, nor do they have a wide scope.

While Across the Universe may have the unique element working for it, there is not one costume that I distinctly remember.

Atonement does have one of the most memorable – and talked about – costumes of the year in Keira Knightley’s green dress. I believe the period drama wins another technical award for its expansive work.

Similarly, this is the same reason why I think Elizabeth: The Golden Age has an outside chance.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Best Dark Horse Chance: Norbit

La Môme does not have anything spectacular about its make up. They may have had a difficult time working on Marion Cotillard’s hair, but nothing truly stands out for me.

Norbit has a chance because of two words: Rick Baker. He is nominated for this award every year it seems.

The creators behind The Pirates of the Caribbean lost last year, but will make up (HA!) for it this year. Granted, they did not reinvent the wheel, but their work is more admirable and difficult than the other two.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: 3:10 to Yuma

Dario Marianelli’s exquisite and singular score for Atonement make it the clear leader in this category, seeing as Jonny Greenwood was not eligible.

Michael Clayton’s haunting score, The Kite Runner’s somber music, and the glee of Ratatouille do not compare to Atonement’s vibrant and dramatic score.

This leaves the lone outside, 3:10 to Yuma. While energetic and engaging, it lacks the presence of Atonement’s score. This is why I feel Atonement will win this category with minimal problems.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Will Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Should Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

There should be no competition in this category. The only way that Once loses this category is if the Academy has a fit about its own ridiculous nomination rules and disqualifies it. Otherwise, this category is a slam dunk.

Best Sound Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

While Transformers had a plethora of sound effects and did an excellent job at it, it should not win. However, it will because of those aspects. No Country for Old Men was much more reliant on its sound to create a behind-the-camera effect that enhances the movie, like the editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

3:10 to Yuma is grand in the scope of its sound, but not much more. Ratatouille does a good job, but that is merely in terms of an animated film.

I penciled The Bourne Ultimatum in because it already has won some awards for its sound effects, but I do not think the Academy will look at that as a positive.

Best Sound Effects Editing

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

See above. I really can not explain this category.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers
Best Dark Horse Chance: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

This should be an easy category because Transformers possessed a lot of special effects, which were really the star of the movie. It took over 80 hours per frame to create a scene in which a Transformer appears.

The Golden Compass will get thrown by the wayside as people are reminded too much of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but the effects are nowhere near the level that those two franchises are.

As for Pirates of the Caribbean, they present the best dark horse chance. Why them? Oscar history likes repeat winners in this category. Recall 2001 through 2003? Lord of the Rings won every year. Did Fellowship of the Ring deserve the award? Yes. Did The Two Towers deserve the award? Yes, it expounded upon the wondrous effects in Fellowship with the inclusion of Gollum. Did Return of the King up the ante? No. Did Jim Rygiel get his third Oscar? Yes. Why? The Academy likes repeat winners, like Dennis Muren and Stan Winston.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille
Best Dark Horse Chance: Persepolis

Can someone down at the Academy’s office explain to me how Surf’s Up got a nomination over The Simpson’s Movie? Anyone? Please, feel free to.

This leaves two real contenders for this category. Up first is Persepolis, a critically raved about film that has more meaning and heart than Ratatouille.

However, Ratatouille – in addition to being one of my favorite films of the year – is a part of the Mouse House. I would bet on those guys every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Beaufort – Israel
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

I have not seen one of these movies, but Beaufort has gotten a lot of praise.

However, the Academy’s rules are bogus in this category. They have the potential for an all-star gathering in this category, but ruled out The Band’s Visit, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Lust, Caution, and 4 Months, 3 Threes, and 2 Days. I smell a rule re-write coming.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: No End in Sight
Should Win: No End in Sight
Best Dark Horse Chance: Taxi to the Dark Side

No End in Sight was one of the best films of the year and this should be its reward. The control and focus of this movie is beyond reproach and holds more of an impact than Fahrenheit 9/11.

While Sicko may have the “celebrity” appeal of Michael Moore, it lacks the passion and grandeur of his past works. Additionally, I have never heard of War Dance and Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience.

This leaves the much lauded Taxi to the Dark Side. What hurts this film’s chance though is its late release in the year.

Totals

No Country for Old Men – 6, Atonement – 3, Transformers – 3, Away from Her – 1, Beaufort – 1, I’m Not There – 1, Juno – 1, No End in Sight – 1, Once – 1, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – 1, Ratatouille – 1, There Will Be Blood – 1

Links for Tuesday

A slow starting week for the blog here- apologies.

What's been happening? Well, Ethan and Joel Coen won the Director's Guild award, making NCFOM's Best Picture chances just that much higher. It also won the ensemble SAG award (and then apparently Josh Brolin forgot that Tommy Lee Jones was much more important than he was and hogged the mic), and honestly we should just stop wondering now.

Also winning SAGs- Daniel Day Lewis, Julie Christie, Javier Bardem, and Ruby Dee. One of these things is not like the others...

The song "Falling Slowly" from Once, as I anticipated, is now in danger of having it's Oscar nomination revoked because it may not have been written for the film (duh!). I'm not saying forget the rules, I'm just saying get it right the first time, Academy. My take- they should revoke it (because if it beat 'original' songs it would seem unfair), but replace it with...another song from Once! "If You Want Me" was the only other song on the shortlist, but since that list was apparently also a piece of crap they could also go with "Fallen From the Sky," "Once," or "The Hill." (Or this!).

Meet the Spartans rules the Box Office, because we as a people are mentally incompetent. I would have been fine with Rambo, I really would have.

New Line finally settled with Peter Jackson awhile ago, so he's going to exec produce a 'Hobbit' movie (and another, blatantly unecessary LoTR film. Let's not get carried into nineties-era Lucas terriority here, people). So who's going to direct said film that wouldn't be a big step down from Jackson? Maybe... Guillermo Del Toro?

Speaking of which, beyond sequels like LoTR and The Dark Knight, I try not to scan crazy far ahead into movie news, because who wants to wait forever when they're excited about something? But get this- there's a 2009 movie called Public Enemies, about FBI agent Melvin Purvis tracking down John Dillinger.

Sounds cool enough already. But there are also three details that make it completely awesome, and I will list them in order of their excitement factor:

1. Michael Mann is directing it (Heat, Collateral, The Insider, The Last of the Mohicans)
2. Who will play Dillinger? Johnny Depp, that's who.
3. Oh, and the FBI Agent? Christian fucking Bale! Christian Bale is so awesome these days that a couple of months ago I had a conversation with Dave that went something like this...

Dave: There's making a fourth Terminator movie...
Me: Ugh.
Dave: It's directed by McG...
Me: Ugh.
Dave: and Christian Bale might be in it.
Me: Sold.

Crash, will now be a tv series. Yeah, there's really no need for that. The Onion's headline says it all. I felt, immediately after seeing that film, that it was pretty good, but why is it a modern masterpiece all of a sudden? Now I hate it to the point of revulsion, like a pretty good pop song that I can't go to any public restroom without hearing twice. The only good thing that has ever resulted from Crash is this list at McSweeney's internet tendency.

The WGA has agreed to provide the Grammy's with lame banter and uneccessary introductory monologues. Where's the waiver for The Oscars, already? Does anyone give a Belgian weasel about the Grammy's anymore? No!

My problems with the Grammy's: First of all, there's about eight billion different, gratiuitous, and hard to distinguish on the best of days categories. Second, in the major categories, all that ever gets nominated is what's all over the radio and at the top of Billboard charts anyway- I'm not saying it's not good music, but come on- we all know that popularity is not the basis for artistic merit.

This would be like if The Oscars nominated Spiderman 3 and At World's End and Transformers for everything, simply because they sold the most tickets.

2007's Top 20 Films- Dave

Nine Movies That Would Have Probably Made My Top Twenty If They Had Arrived In Milwaukee Sooner, Or If I Had Made An Effort To See Them:

Away from Her, Control, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days, Gone Baby Gone, King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters, Michael Clayton, The Orphanage, and Persepolis.

Only Away from Her, Gone Baby Gone, King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters, and Michael Clayton made it to the Milwaukee market and I never got around to seeing any of them. Hopefully, I will catch Michael Clayton as it is going into a re-release for an Oscar run. As for the remaining five, they have not hit the Milwaukee market yet, but – assuredly – I will see them when they do. I have a feeling that they are all spectacular films based on their trailers, the reviews, and the award nominations they are receiving.

20. 28 Weeks Later
19. Breach
18. Juno
17. The Namesake
16. Knocked Up
15. 3:10 to Yuma
14. Into the Wild
13. Rescue Dawn
12. Ratatouille
11. The Bourne Ultimatum

I think that Breach and The Namesake could have been contenders for Best Supporting Actor if they had a campaign and a later release date. I am also not entirely blown away by Juno, though it is a very good movie. 3:10 to Yuma, Rescue Dawn, and – yes – 28 Weeks Later are all solidly crafted movies that I was unsure at first and all pleasantly surprised by.

I find the Best Picture talk for Into the Wild to be kind of crazy talk. I think the performances and cinematography are all top notch, but as an overall product, it does work that well for me.

Ratatouille and The Bourne Ultimatum are both outstanding fares for various reasons. I miss the early 1990’s because these two films would have garnered Best Picture buzz. The world has changed from the days of Beauty and the Beast and The Fugitive getting Best Picture nominations.

10. The Mist

I was initially reluctant to see this film because I know that Stephen King adaptations tend to be horrible. However, I figured the pairing of Frank Darabont and King has yielded good results in the past and I had nothing to do on a weekday afternoon.

This film’s focus is so sharp on the paranoia and power structures that arise with ordinary people in extraordinary circumstances. Though some labeled this a “B Movie,” it is nowhere near that in its portrayal of small townspeople.

Plus, the ending is surprising and still shocks me months after I first saw the film.

9. No End in Sight

Hey, look! A documentary! I rented this one a few weeks ago – on the same night that I rented The Namesake – and was entranced by it. Charles Ferguson’s film is not nearly as explosive as Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11, but the intimate interviews of people that do not support the war or have become disillusioned by it is mesmerizing. If you want to watch only one documentary on the conflict in Iraq, make it this one.

8. Eastern Promises

When I heard Cronenberg and Mortensen were re-teaming for another film, I was excited. Cronenberg’s Eastern Promises may lack the down-to-earth feel of A History of Violence, but it is still packs a powerful punch.

Mortensen’s performance was probably the most unhinged of any actor this year. The raw emotion – and body parts – that he put on display here is admirable. Supported by an outstanding supporting cast, Eastern Promises was one of the most satisfying films of the year.

7. Once

It should get nominations for Best Song, but it probably will not. It should probably merit a Best Picture nomination, but the Academy has not nominated a film for solely Best Picture since Grand Hotel.

This is the little musical that could and like Spielberg says, “This movie gave me enough hope for the rest of year.”

6. Grindhouse

Robert Rodriguez made a documentary / lecture called Film is Dead. I would like to make an addendum to that saying the cinematic experience is dead.

There are a few exceptions where going to the movies becomes an experience. Whether it is because people dress up like the characters, religiously attend midnight showings of the movie, or know every single line of the film.

However, Grindhouse was the most fun at the movies all year. It was a unique experience that allowed people to stand up and cheer, openly cringe, and laugh hysterically at things that traditional Hollywood movies would not cue you to laugh at.

5. Atonement

I was completely fascinated with this movie after I saw the trailer. The movie lives up to the incredible hype that surrounds it constructing a beautifully tragic tale.

After I had seen the film, I told a friend about it and how excellent I thought it was. He said that he did not want to because “it seems like a British movie that is created solely for the purpose of making an Academy Awards run.” I could not disagree with him more, citing the stellar performances, outstanding editing, and the overall scope of the film.

4. There Will Be Blood

“Drainage! Drainage, Eli! Drained dry, you boy! If you have a milkshake and I have a milkshake and I have a straw and my straw reaches across the room and starts to drink your milkshake. I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!”

Daniel Day-Lewis sells this movie all by himself.

3. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Initially, people wondered if Tim Burton’s distinct visual style would hinder the film. I think the end product has silenced anyone who ever did question that.

Burton’s delightful film cruises along with toe-tapping songs, Johnny Depp’s memorable performance, and an exquisite complimentary cast.

I wish this film would get all the Academy Award nominations it deserves. People would argue that musicals tend to get overlooked by the Academy, but they should stop and notice the excellence this film exudes.


2. Zodiac

If I had run of the Academy Awards, Zodiac would be the runaway leader in nominations. However, because the film was released in March and has had a minimal campaign, it will get entirely overlooked come Oscar time.

Remarkable performances from everyone made this the best ensemble piece in my eyes. From Gyllenhaal’s restraint to the always undervalued Anthony Edwards everybody had a genuine feel to them. Robert Downey Jr.’s performance was arguably one of the best of the year, but in a crowded field, he has almost entirely been forgotten.

The cinematography is an awesome spectacle as it is the first film to completely use the Vesper-Thomson film system. The editing, score, and attention to detail are heightened to a point that you feel like you are really in the Bay Area.

James Vanderbilt, having improved his writing skills since Basic, is at the top of his game and I hold out hope that he will be recognized for his work come January 22nd.

In the end, the person who deserves the most credit for Zodiac is David Fincher. His meticulous work and research on the film makes this film the highlight of his career. This movie – along with one other this year – left me completely breathless at the end, even though I knew what the outcome was going to be. Just like…

1. No Country for Old Men

This is movie perfection. There is no other way to describe it. I feel that no matter how many adjectives I throw out there they simply will not do this movie justice.

So much has already been said about the film that I feel I can only add one thing: Javier Bardem is not the “ultimate badass.” I would call him the ultimate car wreck. There has never been a character that is so horrific and methodical, yet I can not take my eyes off of him. I want to see what he will do next and I know that it is going to be something atrocious. That is how I know the Coen Brothers truly captured something menacing.

Most Overrated Film of the Year:

Charlie Wilson’s War – Yes, the two male leads are quite good. The script is very good for about 75 minutes. However, the more I think about this movie, the more I do not like it. I view Julia Roberts as a waste of space, Mike Nichols seems content to let his stars do what they want, and I wonder how the heck it managed a Best Picture Comedy or Musical nomination at the Golden Globes.

Best Guilty Pleasure Film of the Year:

300 – It made a gazillion dollars and has amazing visuals, but the dialogue is a tad ridiculous and – at times – it really quite cheesy. In ten years this movie may still be heralded as a visual achievement, but I do not think it will age well. Still, Snyder’s unique vision is entertaining for its slow-motion fight scenes and bombastic catchphrases.

2007's Top 20 Films- Duncan

The clock is ticking on "best of" columns for 2007. But, due to the curse of the midwest, I must compose my list not having seen things like Persepolis, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and The Savages, since the first two don't open for two weeks in Wisconsin, and the latter just got here.

So know that this list will be revised, if applicable, when I do see those films, and I'll link back to it when appropriate. I ended up seeing over fifty films released last year, depending on how you count it (I say count February to January, since this month is all about seeing art-house award contenders that hadn't made it here yet). And with very few exceptions, they were all pretty much a good time. Whittling it down to 20 was hard.

The latter half of the list:

21. Ratatouille
20. Paprika
19. Stardust
18. Juno
17. Gone Baby Gone
16. The Darjeeling Limited
15. American Gangster
14. The Bourne Ultimatum
13. 3:10 to Yuma
12. Knocked Up

Pretty self explanatory runners-up. I'm obviously not as high on Juno as other countdown makers, but it's still a great film in a crowded year. Paprika is the only thing to make the list that I missed in the theater- otherwise I saw most of this list on the first weekend I could.

11. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

The only film in all of 2007 that I saw more than once in theaters, so it leapfrogs The Bourne Ultimatum and Knocked Up from the Summer Countdown for the ten-spot. I never would have predicted, based on the first two films, that I'd eventually be as stoked for first-day midnight showings of the Harry Potter series as I was for Lord of the Rings, but the last three films are right up there with any other famous trilogies. Can't wait until November.

10. Atonement

After I saw Atonement, I read the Ian McEwan novel (normally something I'd have done first), and to my surprise still preferred the film. It was able to cut very efficiently through a beautiful, but plodding novel, and maintain a tense energy throughout.

It's not really as "Oscar"-ish at it seemed at first glance, which is not necessarily a bad thing. It eschews redundant pining and melodrama for a twist that is both satisfying and heart-wrenching at the same time. In a slower year, I wouldn't have hesitated so much to put it into my Best Picture nominees.

9. Zodiac

As I am now reminded, January through March is not the best time to go to the movies (unless you're Dave, who's seeing Cloverfield this weekend and Rambo(?) next weekend, he tells me. I felt like I had to share this with you). This is the only representative from the Mid-winter and Spring months of 2007 on this whole list- The Namesake, Reign Over Me, Hot Fuzz, and The Host are all in the twenties for sure, but still.

Robert Downey, Jr. steals the show in David Fincher's moody, atmospheric procedural not-quite-a-thriller about the unsolved Zodiac killings in San Francisco. Jake Gyllenhaal does a workmanlike job as a cartoonist obsessed with the case, but never really solidifies this picture into an awards contender. Between this and what I hear is a bland turn in Rendition (I didn't see it), we're still waiting for you to capitalize on the potential you showed in Donnie Darko, Jake.

8. Rescue Dawn

Christian Bale eats live worms. For real.

7. Michael Clayton

A heart-pounding, throwback thriller that has stuck in my memory so well I might go see it again once they re-expand it next weekend (so far, the Clayton and No Country teams are positive enough about multiple Oscars noms that they've planned the Awards rerun expansions already. If Into the Wild makes it into the final five, they'll probably re-up that as well).

6. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

True story: right before I went to see this with Nicole, we had lunch at Boston Market and I ordered a chicken pot pie. Yeah.

5. Away From Her

Bought it on DVD, and it still holds up. Further information (from my parents, who watched it on my fervent recommendation) has revealed to me that the K. D. Lang song that plays over the credits is a classic Neil Young song.

So maybe they chose it to appeal to the presumably older than I am target audience of this Alzheimer's centered drama. So what- the Ray LaMontagne song from the trailer is still a better fit, I way.

4. There Will Be Blood

Basically the shortest three hours I spent in a movie theater this year. Between the score, the visuals, and the utterly ridiculous badassness of Daniel Day-Lewis, an instant buy on DVD. And it's a shoe-in for a Best Picture nomination on Tuesday, to boot.

3. Once

I know, I know, this was runner up to Away From Her on my list four months ago. What can I say? I'm not paid enough for this to not change my mind about things. Watching it on DVD, I realized what an efficient, brilliant film it turned out to be for the budget.

And they say nothing elevates a film like the right soundtrack, but this is really a case of a brilliant soundtrack elevating a bootstraps indie film to an instant classic. It's a shame that only two songs ("Falling Slowly" and "If You Want Me") are eligible for the Best Original Song Oscar, and that's the only place that Once has a shot at showing up in.

2. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

(See review)

1. No Country For Old Men

Sure, pick the most lauded film of the year, Duncan. Way to go out on a limb. What can I say? You can't argue with two Coen brothers, a Pulitzer-winning author, two badasses and a complete psychopath.


Most Overrated film of the year:

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

When I caught up with this one, I remembered vaguely the premise and that it got outstanding reviews. And while the execution is there, and the cast is more than able (Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Marisa Tomei's breasts, Ethan Hawke, and Albert Finney), it's just a miserable film about misery for the sake of misery. Much like the similarly lauded but god-awful House of Sand and Fog, I can just never get behind sad people with bad luck doing horrible things to each other.

Plus, 83-year old Sidney Lumet decides to fracture the timeline of this film with completely jarring and useless Tarantino cuts, which recur until you just start wishing for the thing to end. Maybe the critics were just so proud of him for managing to shoot a whole film without soiling himself that they gave him a free pass.

Best Guilty Pleasure: Across the Universe

Who doesn't like a good sing along? I have no intention of buying Julie Taymour's cheesy, goofball Beatles collage movie (maybe as a gift), but I did pick up the soundtrack to blast in my car.

It's been such a strong year for musicals/music-related pictures I thought the Academy might dust off the "Best Musical" category and nominate Across the Universe, Once, La Vie En Rose, Hairspray, and Sweeney Todd.

Omissions:

I never had the effort to see Into the Wild (which would be an inspiring yarn of natural connection and individualism if (spoiler) its protagonist didn't starve to death in an abandoned van in Alaska(end spoiler)). And that's the only film in the running for Best Pic I haven't made it to, except for Diving Bell as I mentioned. I could really care less about The Great Debaters (I was on the Chess Team in high school. The Debate Team was a bunch of nerds) or The Bucket List. I didn't ever really feel the need to see La Vie En Rose or A Mighty Heart, because I'm not into French music or bad French accents. And there was too big a part of my mind that thought Lars and the Real Girl sounded too much like a National Lampoon's movie (the crappy ones, with Paris Hilton in them for five minutes) to take seriously.

Otherwise I saw just about everything, which is way too many for someone who doesn't get paid to.

Duncan's Oscar Nominee Predictions

So, no more hand-wringing, no more shuffling my feet- it’s time to lay down some cold, hard, Oscar Predictions.

Best Picture

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Atonement
Michael Clayton

The BAFTAs came out last night, and just like I thought, Atonement led the field with 14 nominations, but Sweeney Todd was nowhere. So welcome back to contention, Joe Wright, Keira Knightly, et al. Too bad there aren’t enough British people in the Academy to give you more than one Oscar or two come February.

No Country and Blood have cemented all around support, while Into the Wild seems to have had the wheels fall off, despite earlier Guild support. I’m guessing (it’s a gut feeling), that it’ll ultimately get pushed off the ballot by The Diving Bell and The Butterfly. Although if I’m wrong anywhere on here, it’s probably the exclusion of Juno, but it feels like a mirage of a juggernaut to me- it should end up with the Eternal Sunshine combo of leading actress nom and original screenplay win for its trouble, but nothing else.

Best Director

Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Joe Wright - Atonement
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton

This came down to three locks- Coens, Anderson, and Schnabel, another BAFTA/Globe influenced inclusion in Wright (Sorry Tim Burton), and a tossup between Tony Gilroy and Sean Penn. This is pretty close to the DGA’s list, but with Wright instead of Penn, and they usually call four out of five (and almost always predict the winner).

Best Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody- Juno
Tony Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins- The Savages
Nancy Oliver- Lars and the Real Girl
Brad Bird- Ratatouille

Most of the heavy hitters are in adapted this year, which leaves this category open for newcomers and oddballs- I’m counting on Brad Bird to duplicate his Incredibles nomination, and Jenkins and Oliver’s screenplays are getting lots of buzz. And Diablo Cody’s Juno script is a guaranteed winner already.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Christopher Hampton- Atonement
Ronald Hardwood- The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
James Vanderbilt- Zodiac

Four Best Picture Nominees, and the nearly forgotten about Zodiac. What gets me is that the Coen brothers are almost certain to win for No Country, but they did the least work of anyone in adapting that novel- it’s nearly scene for scene, word for word the same as McCarthy. Go figure.

Lead Actor

Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
George Clooney- Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch- Into the Wild

“Ladies and gentlemen… I’ve traveled over half our state to be here tonight. I couldn't get away sooner because my new well was coming in at Coyote Hills and I had to see about it. That well is now flowing at two thousand barrels and it's paying me an income of five thousand dollars a week. I have two others drilling and I have sixteen producing at Antelope. So, ladies and gentlemen... if I say I'm an oil man, you will agree.”

Lead Actress

Julie Christie- Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page- Juno
Angelina Jolie- A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney- The Savages

Another film from the first half of the year that would have many more nominations if it came out a month ago- Away From Her is going to end up with just Christie’s nomination, but she’s the favorite for the statue. Angelina Jolie… ugh. But she’s got the homecoming dance vote. Ellen Page will probably set some sort of record for the youngest person to ever get a lead nomination, and hopefully Laura Linney will have had enough time for The Savages to make the rounds of the country before ballots are due.

Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James
Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook- Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson- Michael Clayton

An easy field this year- Holbrook has the most acclaim of anyone in that film, but he’s got too much competition to take home the statue.

Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett- I’m Not There
Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone
Saoirse Ronan- Atonement
Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton
Ruby Dee- American Gangster

If there’s one thing this category loves, it’s old ladies and little kids- hence Ruby Dee, plus pint-sized Saoirse Ronan garnering Atonement’s only acting nom (sorry Keira. Go eat a cheeseburger). Cate Blanchett get’s this year’s obligatory “extreme transformation” nomination, but hopefully not the win- Amy Ryan really deserves the accolades she’s been getting for making us feel for an unlikeable character.

Animated Feature

Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

This is an easy category to predict the nominees for (sadly, Paprika is getting no love from anyone), but the Ratatouille versus Persepolis debate is impossible to figure- Pixar’s been taking home all of the early awards, but the Oscars never go for the obvious in this category. Plus the political and biographical context to Persepolis make it a much more unique and appealing choice.

Cinematography

Roger Deakins- No Country For Old Men
Robert Elswit- There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey- Atonement
Eric Gautier- Into the Wild

I was on the fence about the double nod for Deakins (he got two guild noms, with one for The Assassination of Jesse James), but I think Into the Wild is powered by the strength of the cinematography. Kaminski is owed one after getting shafted for his work on Children of Men.

Editing

“Roderick Jaynes”(the Coens)- No Country For Old Men
Dylan Tichenor- There Will Be Blood
Jay Cassidy- Into the Wild
John Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Chris Lebenzon- Sweeney Todd

Atonement is not terribly jumpy or complex to merit an editing nomination, and Into the Wild beat it out for the guild nods. Otherwise, some very epic films fill out this category, the winner of which usually wins best picture (I read this on awardsdaily.com, my favorite Oscar Blog).

Art Direction

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Dave had the fortitude to look up the rest of the individual technical nominees. Me? Just the movie title. I just think about these things in general terms, with an eye on the guild noms. Sweeney Todd seems like it’ll make up for lost love in these categories, and otherwise period pieces are a good bet. No Country is an unconventional choice, but it has unanimous across the board support, and it is set nearly thirty years ago…

Visual Effects

Pirates 3
300
Transformers

There’s a pattern to this category- two obvious choices (Transformers, Pirates), and one visually innovative choice, thus 300.

Makeup

Sweeney Todd
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Pirates 3

I figure a year for outstanding makeup grotesquery, between squid people, pale faced throat-slashers, and stroke victims with their eyes sewn shut.

Costume Design

Atonement
Sweeney Todd
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
La Vie En Rose

More love for Sweeney Todd. But I think this statue is going to be won solely by that green dress from Atonement, which everyone is raving about.

Sound Mixing

No Country For Old Men
300
Transformers
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Sound Editing

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
300
Atonement
Transformers

Never know how many to predict for these two- sometimes it’s three, sometimes five. I figure I’ll go with all ten to cover my bases- if they only nominate three out of the five I pick, I can say I was right! No Country has the guild nom, and is well done despite being mostly silent. There Will Be Blood is a sonic masterpiece, with the score interwoven so well into the proceedings that it’s as rich as any musical in depth. Atonement fills out the editing for the war scenes, as that category loves war. I could be way off here, more than any other categories, but it’s worth a shot.

Original Score

Dario Marainelli- Atonement
Johnny Greenwood- There Will Be Blood
Alberto Iglesias- The Kite Runner
Howard Shore- Eastern Promises
Brook/King/Vedder- Into the Wild

Greenwood has to get a nod. He just has to. Marinelli is the prohibitive favorite, but Greenwood’s score is far and away the best accompaniment to its film.

Original Song

“Do You Feel Me” from American Gangster
“That’s How You Know” from Enchanted
“Guaranteed” from Into the Wild
“Falling Slowly” from Once
“Walk Hard” from Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story

Another impossible category, but I’m putting my money on “Falling Slowly” sticking in the minds of anyone who saw Once- hands down the best song in a film this year. Otherwise, Disney’s rep for original songs will get the one from Enchanted on the list, the Eddie Vedder song just won the Globe, and the Oscars usually have an oddball choice (like “Blame Canada” from the South Park Movie).

(Totals: There Will Be Blood- 10, No Country For Old Men- 9, Atonement- 9, Michael Clayton- 7, Diving Bell- 6, Sweeney Todd- 6, Into the Wild- 6, Transformers/300- 3.)