Duncan's Oscar Nominee Predictions

So, no more hand-wringing, no more shuffling my feet- it’s time to lay down some cold, hard, Oscar Predictions.

Best Picture

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Atonement
Michael Clayton

The BAFTAs came out last night, and just like I thought, Atonement led the field with 14 nominations, but Sweeney Todd was nowhere. So welcome back to contention, Joe Wright, Keira Knightly, et al. Too bad there aren’t enough British people in the Academy to give you more than one Oscar or two come February.

No Country and Blood have cemented all around support, while Into the Wild seems to have had the wheels fall off, despite earlier Guild support. I’m guessing (it’s a gut feeling), that it’ll ultimately get pushed off the ballot by The Diving Bell and The Butterfly. Although if I’m wrong anywhere on here, it’s probably the exclusion of Juno, but it feels like a mirage of a juggernaut to me- it should end up with the Eternal Sunshine combo of leading actress nom and original screenplay win for its trouble, but nothing else.

Best Director

Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Joe Wright - Atonement
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton

This came down to three locks- Coens, Anderson, and Schnabel, another BAFTA/Globe influenced inclusion in Wright (Sorry Tim Burton), and a tossup between Tony Gilroy and Sean Penn. This is pretty close to the DGA’s list, but with Wright instead of Penn, and they usually call four out of five (and almost always predict the winner).

Best Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody- Juno
Tony Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins- The Savages
Nancy Oliver- Lars and the Real Girl
Brad Bird- Ratatouille

Most of the heavy hitters are in adapted this year, which leaves this category open for newcomers and oddballs- I’m counting on Brad Bird to duplicate his Incredibles nomination, and Jenkins and Oliver’s screenplays are getting lots of buzz. And Diablo Cody’s Juno script is a guaranteed winner already.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Christopher Hampton- Atonement
Ronald Hardwood- The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
James Vanderbilt- Zodiac

Four Best Picture Nominees, and the nearly forgotten about Zodiac. What gets me is that the Coen brothers are almost certain to win for No Country, but they did the least work of anyone in adapting that novel- it’s nearly scene for scene, word for word the same as McCarthy. Go figure.

Lead Actor

Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
George Clooney- Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch- Into the Wild

“Ladies and gentlemen… I’ve traveled over half our state to be here tonight. I couldn't get away sooner because my new well was coming in at Coyote Hills and I had to see about it. That well is now flowing at two thousand barrels and it's paying me an income of five thousand dollars a week. I have two others drilling and I have sixteen producing at Antelope. So, ladies and gentlemen... if I say I'm an oil man, you will agree.”

Lead Actress

Julie Christie- Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page- Juno
Angelina Jolie- A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney- The Savages

Another film from the first half of the year that would have many more nominations if it came out a month ago- Away From Her is going to end up with just Christie’s nomination, but she’s the favorite for the statue. Angelina Jolie… ugh. But she’s got the homecoming dance vote. Ellen Page will probably set some sort of record for the youngest person to ever get a lead nomination, and hopefully Laura Linney will have had enough time for The Savages to make the rounds of the country before ballots are due.

Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James
Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook- Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson- Michael Clayton

An easy field this year- Holbrook has the most acclaim of anyone in that film, but he’s got too much competition to take home the statue.

Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett- I’m Not There
Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone
Saoirse Ronan- Atonement
Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton
Ruby Dee- American Gangster

If there’s one thing this category loves, it’s old ladies and little kids- hence Ruby Dee, plus pint-sized Saoirse Ronan garnering Atonement’s only acting nom (sorry Keira. Go eat a cheeseburger). Cate Blanchett get’s this year’s obligatory “extreme transformation” nomination, but hopefully not the win- Amy Ryan really deserves the accolades she’s been getting for making us feel for an unlikeable character.

Animated Feature

Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

This is an easy category to predict the nominees for (sadly, Paprika is getting no love from anyone), but the Ratatouille versus Persepolis debate is impossible to figure- Pixar’s been taking home all of the early awards, but the Oscars never go for the obvious in this category. Plus the political and biographical context to Persepolis make it a much more unique and appealing choice.

Cinematography

Roger Deakins- No Country For Old Men
Robert Elswit- There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey- Atonement
Eric Gautier- Into the Wild

I was on the fence about the double nod for Deakins (he got two guild noms, with one for The Assassination of Jesse James), but I think Into the Wild is powered by the strength of the cinematography. Kaminski is owed one after getting shafted for his work on Children of Men.

Editing

“Roderick Jaynes”(the Coens)- No Country For Old Men
Dylan Tichenor- There Will Be Blood
Jay Cassidy- Into the Wild
John Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Chris Lebenzon- Sweeney Todd

Atonement is not terribly jumpy or complex to merit an editing nomination, and Into the Wild beat it out for the guild nods. Otherwise, some very epic films fill out this category, the winner of which usually wins best picture (I read this on awardsdaily.com, my favorite Oscar Blog).

Art Direction

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Dave had the fortitude to look up the rest of the individual technical nominees. Me? Just the movie title. I just think about these things in general terms, with an eye on the guild noms. Sweeney Todd seems like it’ll make up for lost love in these categories, and otherwise period pieces are a good bet. No Country is an unconventional choice, but it has unanimous across the board support, and it is set nearly thirty years ago…

Visual Effects

Pirates 3
300
Transformers

There’s a pattern to this category- two obvious choices (Transformers, Pirates), and one visually innovative choice, thus 300.

Makeup

Sweeney Todd
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Pirates 3

I figure a year for outstanding makeup grotesquery, between squid people, pale faced throat-slashers, and stroke victims with their eyes sewn shut.

Costume Design

Atonement
Sweeney Todd
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
La Vie En Rose

More love for Sweeney Todd. But I think this statue is going to be won solely by that green dress from Atonement, which everyone is raving about.

Sound Mixing

No Country For Old Men
300
Transformers
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Sound Editing

No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
300
Atonement
Transformers

Never know how many to predict for these two- sometimes it’s three, sometimes five. I figure I’ll go with all ten to cover my bases- if they only nominate three out of the five I pick, I can say I was right! No Country has the guild nom, and is well done despite being mostly silent. There Will Be Blood is a sonic masterpiece, with the score interwoven so well into the proceedings that it’s as rich as any musical in depth. Atonement fills out the editing for the war scenes, as that category loves war. I could be way off here, more than any other categories, but it’s worth a shot.

Original Score

Dario Marainelli- Atonement
Johnny Greenwood- There Will Be Blood
Alberto Iglesias- The Kite Runner
Howard Shore- Eastern Promises
Brook/King/Vedder- Into the Wild

Greenwood has to get a nod. He just has to. Marinelli is the prohibitive favorite, but Greenwood’s score is far and away the best accompaniment to its film.

Original Song

“Do You Feel Me” from American Gangster
“That’s How You Know” from Enchanted
“Guaranteed” from Into the Wild
“Falling Slowly” from Once
“Walk Hard” from Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story

Another impossible category, but I’m putting my money on “Falling Slowly” sticking in the minds of anyone who saw Once- hands down the best song in a film this year. Otherwise, Disney’s rep for original songs will get the one from Enchanted on the list, the Eddie Vedder song just won the Globe, and the Oscars usually have an oddball choice (like “Blame Canada” from the South Park Movie).

(Totals: There Will Be Blood- 10, No Country For Old Men- 9, Atonement- 9, Michael Clayton- 7, Diving Bell- 6, Sweeney Todd- 6, Into the Wild- 6, Transformers/300- 3.)

Dave's Oscar Nominee Predictions

Best Picture:

Atonement
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

I would place money on Atonement, Juno, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood.

This leaves one slot for American Gangster, Charlie Wilson’s War, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Michael Clayton, and Sweeney Todd. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is very fresh and not enough people have necessarily seen it. Charlie Wilson’s War and Michael Clayton are being more heralded for their performances and writing than the overall product, while American Gangster seems to have lost a lot of steam amongst the onslaught of late award contender releases.

This leaves Sweeney Todd, a lavish musical featuring stellar performances, a respectable director, and it is based on a musical that is well liked. This film has a lot of similarities to Chicago, though I do not see it winning this award on Oscar night.

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
The Coen Brothers – No Country for Old Men
Ridley Scott – American Gangster
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Again, the No Country for Old Men juggernaut continues. Paul Thomas Anderson is also a certain bet for a first time Best Director nomination.

Ridley Scott will get the nomination for American Gangster because he is Ridley Scott. Similar to how he achieved one for Black Hawk Down, this is more of a courteous nomination than anything else.

Tim Burton fits into a similar category with Ridley Scott, but Burton’s nomination will come as a result of a body of work. He has never received an Academy Award nomination for direction, but Sweeney Todd should result in his first nomination in his distinguished career.

Again, this leaves one slot for Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), and Joe Wright (Atonement). While it would not entirely surprise me to see Wright get a nomination, I feel that Schnabel will get the nomination out of respect for his film and this will be the film’s ultimate merit.

Mike Nichols is left off the ballot because he was given a talented cast with a script from a talented writer.

Best Actor:

George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tom Hanks – Charlie Wilson’s War
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises

Clooney, Day-Lewis, and Depp are locks for this category. This leaves two slots open, one which James McAvoy (Atonement) could very well receive.

Hanks is loved by the Academy and they may figure that his turn as the seedy Congressman is a bit of a digression for him that he admirably pulls off.

I picked Mortensen for the last spot because his performance is so real that it is scary, believable, and the never nominated Mortensen is prime for his first nomination as a spectacular mob member. This will leave Christian Bale (Rescue Dawn) and Denzel Washington (American Gangster) without a nomination, similar to James McAvoy.

Best Actress:

Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley – Atonement
Ellen Page – Juno

Christie, Jolie, and Knightley have been surrounded by Academy Award buzz since their movies hit the cinemas.

Cotillard’s turn as Edith Piaf is being heralded as “revolutionary,” which could see her garner an Oscar nomination. The Golden Globe win really solidified her changes.

Ellen Page will earn her first nomination for Juno, leaving Cate Blanchett on the sidelines for Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Best Supporting Actor:

Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

This category does not have the depth that Best Actor does, as four spots – Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman, and Wilkinson – all seem assured. This leaves one spot, which I think will come down to four people: Paul Dano, Robert Downey Jr., Hal Holbrook, and John Travolta. Ultimately, I think Travolta is ruled out because he is not going to the depths and demonstrating the range that his competitors do. Dano, while great, gets lost in Day-Lewis’ towering performance. Everybody seems to have forgotten about Zodiac (Which should be nominated for numerous awards, but that will not happen). This leaves the soulful Holbrook. His performance is restrained and completely harrowing when we last see him. This should secure him his first ever nomination.

Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Romola Garai – Atonement
Julia Roberts – Charlie Wilson’s War
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

Blanchett, while shut out of the lead category, will garner a Supporting Actress nomination for her portrayal of Bob Dylan.

Roberts and Swinton will receive nominations for their pedigree and receptive reviews of their performances. This allows Amy Ryan to receive a nomination as she capitalizes on all of her critics’ award victories.

This leaves one spot for two actresses, playing the same character. Saoirse Ronan and Romola Garai will battle it out for the final spot, leading me to believe that Garai will get the nomination for her role as the repenting sister in Atonement. Ronan, also deserving, watches as he aged character gets the nomination.

Best Original Screenplay:

Eastern Promises – Steven Knight
I’m Not There – Todd Haynes and Oren Moverman
Juno – Diablo Cody
Knocked Up – Judd Apatow
Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy

Gilroy, Cody, and Knight all seem like lock picks. I chose Haynes and Moverman because their script displays a level of complexity with its interpretation, not to mention the Academy recognizes Haynes from his work on Far from Heaven.

This leaves one spot, which I think Judd Apatow may get a nomination for. Think about it: Successful movie, Hollywood’s “it” guy, well reviewed movie, sharp, edgy, crisp dialogue, what is not to like? If Borat can get a nomination here, Apatow’s script about family coming together is just as worthy.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Atonement – Christopher Hampton
Charlie Wilson’s War – Aaron Sorkin
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men – Ethan and Joel Coen
There Will Be Blood – Paul Thomas Anderson

This category filled itself out. Seriously. I did not have to put any thought into this category.

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Roger Deakins – No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit – There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey – Atonement

A titan of a category featuring multiple past nominees. Deakins receives the rare double nomination for both of his bodies of work. Robert Elswit sealed his nomination with the incredibly shadow play at the train station as the light dances across Daniel Day-Lewis’ face. Janusz Kaminski is being lauded for his unique work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, plus, he is a past winner. Seamus McGarvey joins the group for his steadfast work in Atonement, but mainly for the long tracking shot on the beach at Dunkirk.

Best Art Direction

Ian Bailie – Atonement
David Crank – There Will Be Blood
Dennis Davenport – Hairspray
Dante Ferretti – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Peter Rogness – Across the Universe

I think of this category – along with Costume and Make Up – as the “eccentric category.” Unique visions often receive the awards, but more traditional films can also offer their splendor. Bailie and Crank get nominations for the epic quality of their work. Davenport, Ferretti, and Rogness get nominations for their unique interpretations and creations. Rogness is almost a lock because the Academy likes the flair that Taymor films bring to the table.

Best Costume Design

Marit Allen – Love in the Time of Cholera
Marit Allen – La Vie en Rose
Colleen Atwood – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Jacqueline Durran – Atonement
Albert Wolsky – Across the Universe

Again, with this category, the more decadent, the better. I have another double nominee in Marit Allen for her large scale and elegant creations in La Vie en Rose and Love in the Time of Cholera. Colleen Atwood, a past nominee for her stellar, dark creations. Jacqueline Durran for the scope of the work she did on Atonement. Finally, Albert Wolsky for his quirky creations in Across the Universe.

Best Make Up

Rick Baker – Norbit
Florence Batteault, Sandrine Cirilli, Chloe Van Lierde – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Nana Fisher – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Nana Fisher gets a nomination for her singular vision of people’s hair. Rick Baker always gets a nomination. He is the John Williams of Make Up. I figured that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly’s make up will garner attention for Amalric’s transformation.

Editing

Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Pietro Scalia – American Gangster
Dylan Tichenor – There Will Be Blood
Paul Tothill – Atonement
Juliette Welfling – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I selected the Coen Brothers and Tichenor for having tightly paced films. Even though There Will Be Blood clocks in at over two and a half hours it does not feel it. Scalia is a previous double winner and the Academy has given him four nominations already. Tothill weaves a wonderfully complex film into a masterpiece. I gave the last slot to Welfling because The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is going to get love across the board.

Sound Mixing

Tony Dawe – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Peter J. Devlin – Transformers
Randy Thom – Ratatouille

Sound Editing

David Evans – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn – Transformers
Michael Silvers – Ratatouille

For the sound categories, I picked Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street because musicals tend to do well in these categories and the actual sound effects are quite good in this film. I selected Transformers because I am playing the odds. Every Michael Bay movie – except for The Island – has received Oscar nominations for sound. As for Ratatouille, this is a movie that is going to be overlooked this year in a lot of places it should not be. Is it one of the best films of the year? Absolutely. I think the Academy will try to give this gem nominations where it can get them. Also, Brad Bird’s The Incredibles won an award for sound achievement.

Best Visual Effects

John Fraizer – Transformers
John Fraizer and Allen Hall – Pirates of the Caribbean 3: At World’s End
Trevor Wood – The Golden Compass

Pirates and The Golden Compass receive nominations not because they are groundbreaking, but because they are working on the pedigree of their predecessors. The Golden Compass operates with Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings as its predecessor. Transformers gets a nomination because of the scale of the work. 80 hours of special effects went into a single frame of Transformers.

Best Original Song

Enchanted – “That’s How You Know”
Grace is Gone – “Grace is Gone”
Into the Wild – “Guaranteed”
Love in the Time of Cholera – “Despedida”
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story – “Walk Hard”

I am horrible with this category. These are all the Golden Globe nominees.

Best Original Score

Michael Brook, Kaki King, and Eddie Vedder – Into the Wild
Clint Eastwood – Grace is Gone
Jonny Greenwood – There Will Be Blood
Albert Iglesias – The Kite Runner
Dario Marianelli – Atonement

Again, horrible with this category. All of them were Golden Globe nominees, save Greenwood. His score is a character in There Will Be Blood.

Best Animated Feature

Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

This was a relatively self-explanatory category.

Totals: Atonement- 9, Sweeney Todd- 8, There Will Be Blood-8, No Country For Old Men- 6, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- 5, Michael Clayton- 4, Charlie Wilson's War- 4, Charlie Wilson's War- 4, Juno/Transformers/Ratatouille/Into the Wild- 3