2008 Oscar Predictions- Duncan

So it's all come down to this, it seems. Never before have I seen all of the Best Picture nominees, heading into the ceremony. I've read awardsdaily.com, I've read NYT's The Carpetbagger, I've pored over charts and figures, and now I have to put myself on record.

Last year, I went 17 for 24- I missed best animated short because I should have went with my gut, not the experts. I missed Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy because I should have used common sense. I missed Happy Feet over Cars because I underestimated penguins. Otherwise, I missed some unpredictable upsets in cinematography and Foreign Language that nobody saw coming.

What will happen on Sunday? Most of the major categories are locks, except the two actresses. The technical awards are always anybody's guess. And then there are the complete wild cards like documentary short, and best original song.

Well, here's my best guess.

Best Picture

The Winner: No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Michael Clayton

Just for the record, we're doing "Dark Horse" picks this year as potential spoilers, but that doesn't mean I think Michael Clayton has a real chance. Nothing has dominated the awards since like No Country since Return of the King, and we all remember what happened there. There's just no derailing it, but if there were some bizarro world situation where No Country and There Will Be Blood split the vote, then Clayton could emerge from the dust on the strength of it's triple nominated cast.

The love for Michael Clayton has baffled some- I think the Academy misses non-Ocean's movies Steven Soderbergh so much that they'll take the nearest substitute. But I think it's great to see an atmospheric thriller recognized in major categories, which wouldn't have been unusual at all forty years ago.

The Rest:
Juno seems like a paper tiger to me, a gimme nomination for a crowd favorite. I liked it much, much more than it's frequent comparison partner, Little Miss Sunshine, but I have no fear of it stealing the Oscar this year- LMS seemed like a real possibility in 07.

Atonement is definitely an odd case- everyone outside America is head over heels for it-we thought it was okay. I wonder if it was marketed differently (and more effectively) overseas- the overall lukewarm reaction here seems to be from people that expected a sweeping, epic romance, and got instead a lighter, quicker meditation on nuance and authorship. Maybe if people could talk about what I mean by that without giving the ending away, the promotional campaign for the film could have been more direct and original than the standard Knightley/McAvoy looks of longing posters.

There Will Be Blood is brilliant, and definitely the second best film of the five, but I get the feeling that if No Country weren't around, there's no way it would have the award sewn up- the third act has proved too crazy and divisive to make it a real front-runner.

Best Director

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

On the strength of his Golden Globe win, and the general feeling that Diving Bell got the shaft, I was leaning toward predicting a victory for Schnabel here. But his general antipathy for the Awards circuit hasn't helped his image, and the Coens took home the all important DGA award.

The Rest:
Tony Gilroy (Clayton) has the makings of an auteur, but is still a first timer and a longshot. Paul Thomas Anderson (Blood) is earning a reputation as a meticulous filmmaker that can create breathtaking films, but I think his achievement is being far too overshadowed by his star- if he returns to the ensemble format for his next film, I could imagine him easily winning a trophy. Reitman (Juno)? I keep forgetting he was even nominated. Sorry, but it's true.

Best Actor

The Winner: Daniel Day Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: George Clooney- Michael Clayton

Little left to say about this one, really. I sometimes wonder if I'll ever go back to the way I was before last year, when I started following awards news and categories with clear favorites like this one (and Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren last year) lost any surprise. But then I remember how much I love this stuff. Even Clooney admits his loss is a foregone conclusion.

The Rest:
Personally, I was always baffled by Viggo Mortensen's lack of respect for taking what JRR Tolkien wrote as a horribly flat character and making him come alive. Maybe this nomination (for Eastern Promises) is for that trilogy, really. Tommy Lee Jones I'm sure did a wonderful job, but it seems like he got some guilt votes from all the academy members that didn't want to see In the Valley of Elah and get bummed out. Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) gets a nomination for coolness- he won't actually have a chance until he stars in a "serious" film, which is a shame.

Best Actress

The Winner: Julie Christie- Away From Her
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard- La Vie En Rose

But then again, there are still races that are too close to call- But I think Christie breaks a virtual tie with Cotillard on name recognition alone. The surprise adapted screenplay nomination for Away From Her suggests that it's high-profile enough to secure this award.

The Rest:
Laura Linney (The Savages) seems destined for one of those career recognition Oscars in the supporting category someday- she's always a contender, never quite at the top. Ellen Page (Juno) was in a comedy, and you know the rules on that. Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) is the only one here with no shot at all- nobody wins Best Actress for a critically panned flop (I'm sure Dave will look something up to prove me wrong on that, though.)

Supporting Actor

The Winner: Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford

I've heard some complaints that Bardem is going to take home a statue for mostly being silent, but I don't think that's the case- just because sociopathy is a lack of recognizable human emotions doesn't mean that it's easy to pull off. If it was just someone sleepwalking through a wordless part, the character would be boring, instead of terrifying. Casey Affleck would have a much better chance for his nervy, jangling role in Assassination if, you know, anybody saw it.

The Rest:
Hal Holbrook is apparently a respected film veteran, and kudos to him, but it's quite clear that no one had any patience for Into the Wild for whatever reason. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) just looked surly for a while- this nomination baffles me- really? Someone in an Aaron Sorkin scripted movie was irritable and made wisecracks? No way! And Tom Wilkinson was the heart and soul of Michael Clayton, but I guess he was out-crazied by Bardem.

Supporting Actress
The Winner: Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There
Dark Horse: Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone

I was too lazy to do the "will win" and "should win" distinctions (like Dave did), as this is really the only likely winner I would strongly disagree with. Really? She plays a man, that's awesome. Who cares?

I think it has a lot to do with impersonating someone, versus making an audience believe in a character from scratch. Anne Proulx, in her steaming-mad indictment of the Crash-Brokeback fiasco, touched upon this much more eloquently:

Hollywood loves mimicry, the conversion of a film actor into the spittin' image of a once-living celeb. But which takes more skill, acting a person who strolled the boulevard a few decades ago and who left behind tapes, film, photographs, voice recordings and friends with strong memories, or the construction of characters from imagination and a few cold words on the page? I don't know. The subject never comes up.

This issue might have tipped my choice in Best Actress (Edith Piaf v. fictional character) as well.

The Rest:
Can we all agree to stop nominating old people who are only in two scenes of a film just because they're old? Hey, good for Ruby Dee (American Gangster), I wish her all the best and have nothing but respect for her career. But she barely has time for one note in her cameo role, let alone the several notes that Amy Ryan hit in multiple scenes. Saiorse Ronan holds the first half of Atonement together, but is spared the more challenging scenes of harrowing guilt that the other two actresses in her role had to deal with. Tilda Swinton would be another worthy winner, as she was more fleshed out into a character that the eponymous hero of Michael Clayton.

Best Original Screenplay

The Winner: Diablo Cody- Juno
Dark Horse: Brad Bird- Ratatouille

It would be hard to send home the only Blockbuster among the best picture nominees with absolutely nothing. And since it has zero chance in picture and director, and a teensy sliver of a chance in actress, it seems to have been decided long ago that Cody's script is the place to honor it. Personally, I enjoyed the film, but it seems hard to credit the script without mentioning that it takes a great cast to make all that slang palatable. And it's unique and all, sure, but how is it that much more impressive than, say, Clueless? Brad Bird's newest film is the most lauded animated feature since Beauty and the Beast, and makes me nervous about predicting all five categories it appears in. Everyone loves this film, especially the critical community.

The Rest:
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) and Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) team with Cody for a record number of female screenplay nominees, and more power to all three- Juno seems to be drawing all of the girl power vote though, despite Jenkins' deft human touches. Michael Clayton is tightly written by Tony Gilroy, but the strength of the film is more in the atmosphere and the performances- corrupt businesses and shady lawyers aren't exactly anything new.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Ronald Harwood- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Coens stand to win four statues apiece if everything goes their way, and they're the safest bet in this category, even though the actual writing of the screenplay was mostly done for them by Cormac McCarthy (he doesn't even use quotation marks- they could just scan most of the book and hand it out to people, for crying out loud). Hardwood, a recent winner for The Pianist, had the much more complex job of translating a slim, objectively sparse memoir of a paralyzed man into a sweeping, subjective movie experience - The BAFTA's went with Harwood, but they also went with Atonement for Best Picture...

The Rest:
Sarah Polley (Away From Her) surprised everyone, even one of the movie's biggest fans in yours truly, with a glad-to-be-here fifth nomination in this category. Christopher Hampton (Atonement) also had a weighty task in trimming Ian McEwan's pensive, thoughtful novel of reminiscence into a film with a rapt momentum. Paul Thomas Anderson has himself admitted that the second half of There Will Be Blood has little, if anything to do with Upton Sinclair's Oil!- so while a great script it has little chance at this Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

The Winner: Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Persepolis

It seemed like it would be a tough call, but honestly Ratatouille has been slamming the competition nearly everywhere else- Persepolis came out a little late in the states to turn back the tide, I'm afraid.

Best Documentary Feature

The Winner: No End in Sight
Dark Horse: Taxi to the Dark Side

All about Iraq this year- No End in Sight for the win. But my dark horse is currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of course, I haven't seen any of these, so I could be way off.

Best Foreign Film

The Winner: The Counterfeiters
Dark Horse: Katyn

All anyone knows for sure here is that the loser in this category is international cinema- these nominations make little sense. But the whole Academy votes for this category, so I browsed the subjects and found that Austria's The Counterfeiters is the true story of a Jewish counterfeiter forced to make foreign currency for th Nazis while in a concentration camp. And if you don't think dealing with true stories from the Holocaust is a surefire bet for the win, then you obviously have never watched the Oscars before.

Achievement in Editing

The Winner: Christopher Rouse- The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark Horse: "Roderick Jaynes"- No Country For Old Men

A head scratcher here- The Bourne Ultimatum took the Guild Award, but the traditional march toward Best Picture for No Country would give the Coens( and their pseudonym) the award here. I'm going with the guild in a close call, since they are nearly always right, but if I'm wrong I'll be pissed.

Achievement in Cinematography

The Winner: Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Dark Horse: Roger Deakins- No Country for Old Men

It seems weird to have to pick between Deakins work on No Country and Elswit's on Blood, since the landscape and pallet of the two films aren't very distinguishable to a non-DOP like myself. But since this guild is not a very accurate predictor, it's hard to give Elswit's victory there much weight. My gut is telling me that Janus Kaminski, the prohibitive favorite for his long, uncut shots from Children of Men last year, can't be ignored twice in a row.

Achievement in Makeup

The Winner: Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald- La Vie En Rose
Dark Horse: Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji- Norbit

I'm hoping for the Rose team here based on their BAFTA win recently. Otherwise, with Rick Baker's resume (Six (6!) Makeup Oscars, including the first one in 1981), Norbit may actually win an Academy Award. But seeing as Norbit pretty much lost Eddie Murphy an Oscar for being in theaters during last year's ceremony, I don't think that'll happen.

Achievement in Costuming

The Winner: Jacqueline Durran- Atonement
Dark Horse: Colleen Atwood- Sweeney Todd

Something is telling me that the green dress from Atonement is the only really memorable costume this year- Marit Allen is a threat for La Vie En Rose, but I think Atwood, a recent winner for Memoirs of a Geisha is the next likely bet.

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Winner: Farrar/Benza/Earl/Frazier- Transfomers
Dark Horse: Knoll/Gibson/Hickel/Frazier- Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End

Another agreed-upon lock- I guess they spent a lot of time making robots into cars. Otherwise, the team from Pirates won last year (that Frazier is the same guy, by the way, John Frazier- he's looking as good as Daniel Day Lewis and the Coen's for a statue).

Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Winner: O'Connell/Russell/Devlin- Transformers
Dark Horse: Thom/Semanick/Kane- Ratatouille

Based on recent history, this guild is usually wrong- sorry, No Country team. I say it falls to Kevin O'Connell and his team- now that he has outdone Randy Newman and been nominated for his 20th Oscar without a victory, I think he'll finally get let off the hook. Nobody can be that cruel- right, sound mixers of the world?

Achievement in Sound Editing

The Winner: Silvers/Thom- Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Hopkins/Van Der Ryn- Transformers

The two Best Picture nominees in this category are actually the two without past Oscar wins on the sound teams. I'm saying this will go to the two guys who won a few years ago for The Incredibles- Ratatouille can't walk away with just one Oscar, can it?

Achievement in Art Direction

The Winner: Ferreti/Lo Schiavo- Sweeney Todd
Dark Horse: Greenwood/Spencer- Atonement

This category tends to go to exotic and distinctive contenders, from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to Dick Tracy- and given Sleepy Hollow's win in 1999, I think Sweeney Todd has the best chance for the statue here. The Art Director's Guild went with both The Golden Compass and There Will Be Blood, but they're wrong as often as they're right. Plus, if I didn't disagree with the consensus on something, then my opinion wouldn't really mean anything, would it?

Best Animated Short

The Winner: My Love
Dark Horse: I Met the Walrus

See here.

Best Live Action Short

The Winner: At Night
Dark Horse: The Mozart of Pickpockets

This category I reserve the right to change after I see the shorts tomorrow night.

Best Documentary Short

The Winner: Sari's Mother
Dark Horse: Freeheld

See here.

Best Original Score

The Winner: Dario Marianelli- Atonement
Dark Horse: Michael Giacchino- Ratatouille

A seeming lock for Marianelli since Greenwood's There Will Be Blood score wasn't eligible. But again, Ratatouille scares me in every category.

Best Original Song

The Winner: Hansard/Irglova- "Falling Slowly" from Once
Dark Horse: Menken/Schwartz- "So Close" from Enchanted

The most important award for me. See here.

But the hands down most awesome part about this year's Oscar ceremony is knowing that Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova are going to perform "Falling Slowly" in front of 40 million viewers, and then watch the sales of Once and its soundtrack skyrocket.

So that it's. All 24. I'll be watching on Sunday, and cursing like a sports fan when the announcements go against me. How this post, which could have been just a list, grew to nearly 3,000 words I have no idea. But thanks for reading.

My totals for, the curious- No Country wins 4, Ratatouille, Atonement, and Transformers win 2, and then 14 other films (including Juno, Diving Bell, and Blood) win one apiece. A big goose egg for Michael Clayton, alas.

2008 Oscar Predictions- Dave

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Atonement

No Country for Old Men has been the dominant picture of the year. It has won more awards than any other film. It was number one on more top ten lists than any other film. It has more four star reviews than any other film. It is running at a higher “fresh” percentage than any other of the best picture nominees. Basically, No Country for Old Men has set itself up to be the movie to beat on Oscar night, and I do not think any other movie will come close.

No Country for Old Men offers the most holistic movie of the five nominees. It is perfect in every way that a movie can be. Juno and Michael Clayton are both heralded for their strong script and top-notch performances. There Will Be Blood has the standout performance of the year, which may detract from the movie as a whole because Daniel Day-Lewis is the movie.

This leaves my dark horse: Atonement. Atonement won at the BAFTA’s and the Golden Globes. While the BAFTA’s may not be a good indicator of Best Picture winners (Last year, The Queen won the same award) it may have the British vote. Adding on the Hollywood Foreign Press voting it Best Picture over No Country for Old Men may sway some of the voters’ viewpoint.

I have seen Atonement twice and it held up well the second time around. This could be the movie’s reward as it was snubbed for actor, actress, director, and – arguably – another supporting actress nomination.

However, I still would take No Country for Old Men to the bank.

Best Achievement in Directing

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Tony Gilroy, Jason Reitman, and Paul Thomas Anderson have their nominations as their reward, leaving three men to battle it out for Best Director.

The Coen Brothers have an outstanding film that is being toted as a masterpiece. Schnabel has an amazing film that benefits from his singular vision. Who will win this clash of the titans?

I think the Coen Brothers will garner the award because No Country for Old Men is a juggernaut and they won the DGA and BAFTA, while Schnabel’s landmark win has been the Golden Globe. Plus, I do not know if the Academy would like to reward a man who said he was going to wear pajamas to the award show.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

When Daniel Day-Lewis wins, I would like his speech to go like this: “Ladies and gentlemen… I’ve traveled over half our globe to be here tonight. I couldn’t get away sooner because my new BAFTA was coming in at my London home and I had to see about it. That award is now glistening on my mantle and is paying me a $50,000 bonus. I have one Oscar already, and sixty other awards. So, ladies and gentlemen… If I say I’m an actor you will agree. You made a great choice here, but bear you in mind; I may not have won if I was not careful. Out of all the men that beg for this award, maybe one in twenty will be actors; the rest will be amateurs – men trying to get between you and the studio. Even if one gets lucky, and has the skills, he will know nothing about acting and they will rely on their co-stars. This is the way it works. Ladies and gentlemen, in conclusion, I say, I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE! SLURP! I DRINK IT UP!”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Should Win: Julie Christie – Away from Her
Best Dark Horse Chance: Marion Cotillard – La Môme (also known as La Vie En Rose)

Julie Christie’s graceful and sorrowful work in Away from Her is the best female performance of the year. Similar to Daniel Day-Lewis the movie is enveloped in her character to a point that everyone – save Gordon Pinsent – in the movie gets lost. Her performance was that good.

Marion Cotillard has earned some press for her transformation into Edith Piaf. However, she does not seem to have the same heartbreaking rendition as Christie.

How Cate Blanchett snuck into this grouping, I will never know. Congratulations to Laura Linney and Ellen Page, but your time is not now. I believe these two actresses will be rewarded some day for their work.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild

Javier Bardem, get your speech ready.

Nobody has a shot in this category because Bardem has dominated this category at every award show, in every possible way.

I choose Hal Holbrook at the dark horse because he may pull an “Alan Arkin” and win for a lifetime of work.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Should Win: Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Best Dark Horse Chance: Ruby Dee – American Gangster

The most wide open race at the Oscars this year. There are a lot of memorable performances and all of these women have won multiple awards along the way, except for Atonement’s Saoirse Ronan.

I read in Entertainment Weekly that Tilda Swinton had the best chance after her BAFTA win. I disagree with this. Even though her role in Michael Clayton is strong, I can not remember a true “Oscar scene” for her. Maybe I missed it, but there was not that moment where I said, “This is where she wins it.” Though her work throughout the film was steadfast, it almost seemed too workmanlike.

Cate Blanchett should probably not win for I’m Not There. The notion of a female playing a man – or vice versa – is not Oscar worthy, challenging, or taboo as it once was. She may have the most nuanced performance out of any player in the field, but Amy Ryan’s performance in Gone Baby Gone was more daunting and engaging. Ryan’s performance wraps you in her initial hysteria, but you really do not like her by the end of the film. That alone makes her more worthy in my book than Blanchett. Disappointedly, I do not think Oscar voters will share my sentiments.

The outsider, who is gaining momentum, is Ruby Dee. I think she has the best chance to steal it away from everyone because of a long career and a true matriarch in American Gangster.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Will Win: Diablo Cody – Juno
Should Win: Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Best Dark Horse Chance: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, and Jim Capobianco – Ratatouille

This award has been locked up for weeks by Cody.

Gilroy’s complex script is superior to Cody’s in its depth and vocabulary. However, Cody’s work pulls on the heart far more than any scene in Michael Clayton.

Jenkins and Oliver were rewarded with nominations for their uniquely touching scripts, but that is all they will receive.

This leaves the crew from Ratatouille for the dark horse. A warm script that was much better than people initially gave it credit for in pre-production.

Ultimately this is Diablo Cody’s award.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Best Dark Horse Chance: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

Sometimes a category should be decided by how hard the people work in it. It almost seems unfair that the Coen Brothers did the least amount of work this year, and will win the Oscar for adapted screenplay.

Paul Thomas Anderson has received three nominations for his writing already, but has gotten overlooked every time. This should be his year, but the power of No Country for Old Men will overpower his gloriously bleak script.

Christopher Hampton and Ronald Harwood received nominations because their works are powerful and innovative, but in a crowded field, they will be lost behind the Coen Brothers.

Sarah Polley’s nomination was her reward this year, but it is a promising start to her new avenue in filmmaking.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins – No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

With the exception of There Will Be Blood, this category’s nominees would be winners in any other year. It is that crowded of a field this year.

Roger Deakins has never won an Oscar. Never. To me, this was the most shocking thing I read about Oscar history. Of all the movies he has shot, all the technologies he has been on the ground floor of, and he has never won… Until this year. This is his year because of an outstanding career and for the dazzling cinematography of No Country for Old Men.

However, I personally do not think this was Deakins’ best work. It was not even his best work this year. While his work on the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford is more harrowing, No Country for Old Men has the broader audience and appeal.

Seamus McGarvey did a wonderful job on Atonement and I expect him to win an award one day. He did have a “money” moment, the Dunkirk five minute tracking shot, but that will not be enough in this year.

This leaves multiple winner, Janusz Kaminski. He actually has the best work of the year, but will be overlooked because of Deakins and the fact that he has two Oscars at home all ready. This is truly a shame for his inventive and beautiful work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Achievement in Editing

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild and There Will Be Blood do not benefit from short running times. The long, purposeful silences in both films may not get them the recognition for the pacing of the film. However, There Will Be Blood was one of the quickest three hour movies I have sat through in recent memory.

No Country for Old Men will get the award because – as Brokeback Mountain found out – it is difficult to NOT win Best Picture without winning Best Editing. Ultimately, the Coen Brothers will walk away with four statuettes from the evening.

However, the two interesting movies are The Bourne Ultimatum and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Bourne Ultimatum’s frenetic pacing makes it the most exciting movie of the year. The editing is one of those elements in the movie that make the movie excel beyond a solid action film into an excellent one. Plus, it won the BAFTA and two other editing awards.

I feel that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly cannot be discounted because it has the most unique editing, which is why I think it has a chance to pull off an upset. The insertion of black panels, while not revelation, is an addition to the film, similar to the overall editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

American Gangster and There Will Be Blood are not remembered for their fine art direction. They are period recreations, where American Gangster uses existing places and There Will Be Blood is sparsely decorated.

The Golden Compass falls into a similar mold of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but without the same freshness of it all.

The two real competitors in this category will be Atonement and Sweeney Todd. Atonement has glamorous set direction and an epic scale to match. Sweeney Todd features a grim world created by past Oscar winners. Ultimately, I think Atonement will win the category for the re-creation of the evacuation of Dunkirk.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Costume design tends to be awarded to a movie where the scope of the costumes is awe inspiring or for costumes that are truly out of this world. Sweeney Todd and La Môme do not have the overly bizarre element working for them, nor do they have a wide scope.

While Across the Universe may have the unique element working for it, there is not one costume that I distinctly remember.

Atonement does have one of the most memorable – and talked about – costumes of the year in Keira Knightley’s green dress. I believe the period drama wins another technical award for its expansive work.

Similarly, this is the same reason why I think Elizabeth: The Golden Age has an outside chance.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Best Dark Horse Chance: Norbit

La Môme does not have anything spectacular about its make up. They may have had a difficult time working on Marion Cotillard’s hair, but nothing truly stands out for me.

Norbit has a chance because of two words: Rick Baker. He is nominated for this award every year it seems.

The creators behind The Pirates of the Caribbean lost last year, but will make up (HA!) for it this year. Granted, they did not reinvent the wheel, but their work is more admirable and difficult than the other two.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement
Best Dark Horse Chance: 3:10 to Yuma

Dario Marianelli’s exquisite and singular score for Atonement make it the clear leader in this category, seeing as Jonny Greenwood was not eligible.

Michael Clayton’s haunting score, The Kite Runner’s somber music, and the glee of Ratatouille do not compare to Atonement’s vibrant and dramatic score.

This leaves the lone outside, 3:10 to Yuma. While energetic and engaging, it lacks the presence of Atonement’s score. This is why I feel Atonement will win this category with minimal problems.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Will Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Should Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

There should be no competition in this category. The only way that Once loses this category is if the Academy has a fit about its own ridiculous nomination rules and disqualifies it. Otherwise, this category is a slam dunk.

Best Sound Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

While Transformers had a plethora of sound effects and did an excellent job at it, it should not win. However, it will because of those aspects. No Country for Old Men was much more reliant on its sound to create a behind-the-camera effect that enhances the movie, like the editing in The Bourne Ultimatum.

3:10 to Yuma is grand in the scope of its sound, but not much more. Ratatouille does a good job, but that is merely in terms of an animated film.

I penciled The Bourne Ultimatum in because it already has won some awards for its sound effects, but I do not think the Academy will look at that as a positive.

Best Sound Effects Editing

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Bourne Ultimatum

See above. I really can not explain this category.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers
Best Dark Horse Chance: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

This should be an easy category because Transformers possessed a lot of special effects, which were really the star of the movie. It took over 80 hours per frame to create a scene in which a Transformer appears.

The Golden Compass will get thrown by the wayside as people are reminded too much of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but the effects are nowhere near the level that those two franchises are.

As for Pirates of the Caribbean, they present the best dark horse chance. Why them? Oscar history likes repeat winners in this category. Recall 2001 through 2003? Lord of the Rings won every year. Did Fellowship of the Ring deserve the award? Yes. Did The Two Towers deserve the award? Yes, it expounded upon the wondrous effects in Fellowship with the inclusion of Gollum. Did Return of the King up the ante? No. Did Jim Rygiel get his third Oscar? Yes. Why? The Academy likes repeat winners, like Dennis Muren and Stan Winston.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille
Best Dark Horse Chance: Persepolis

Can someone down at the Academy’s office explain to me how Surf’s Up got a nomination over The Simpson’s Movie? Anyone? Please, feel free to.

This leaves two real contenders for this category. Up first is Persepolis, a critically raved about film that has more meaning and heart than Ratatouille.

However, Ratatouille – in addition to being one of my favorite films of the year – is a part of the Mouse House. I would bet on those guys every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Beaufort – Israel
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Dark Horse Chance: The Academy

I have not seen one of these movies, but Beaufort has gotten a lot of praise.

However, the Academy’s rules are bogus in this category. They have the potential for an all-star gathering in this category, but ruled out The Band’s Visit, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Lust, Caution, and 4 Months, 3 Threes, and 2 Days. I smell a rule re-write coming.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: No End in Sight
Should Win: No End in Sight
Best Dark Horse Chance: Taxi to the Dark Side

No End in Sight was one of the best films of the year and this should be its reward. The control and focus of this movie is beyond reproach and holds more of an impact than Fahrenheit 9/11.

While Sicko may have the “celebrity” appeal of Michael Moore, it lacks the passion and grandeur of his past works. Additionally, I have never heard of War Dance and Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience.

This leaves the much lauded Taxi to the Dark Side. What hurts this film’s chance though is its late release in the year.

Totals

No Country for Old Men – 6, Atonement – 3, Transformers – 3, Away from Her – 1, Beaufort – 1, I’m Not There – 1, Juno – 1, No End in Sight – 1, Once – 1, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – 1, Ratatouille – 1, There Will Be Blood – 1

Dave's Oscar Nominee Predictions

Best Picture:

Atonement
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

I would place money on Atonement, Juno, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood.

This leaves one slot for American Gangster, Charlie Wilson’s War, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Michael Clayton, and Sweeney Todd. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is very fresh and not enough people have necessarily seen it. Charlie Wilson’s War and Michael Clayton are being more heralded for their performances and writing than the overall product, while American Gangster seems to have lost a lot of steam amongst the onslaught of late award contender releases.

This leaves Sweeney Todd, a lavish musical featuring stellar performances, a respectable director, and it is based on a musical that is well liked. This film has a lot of similarities to Chicago, though I do not see it winning this award on Oscar night.

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
The Coen Brothers – No Country for Old Men
Ridley Scott – American Gangster
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Again, the No Country for Old Men juggernaut continues. Paul Thomas Anderson is also a certain bet for a first time Best Director nomination.

Ridley Scott will get the nomination for American Gangster because he is Ridley Scott. Similar to how he achieved one for Black Hawk Down, this is more of a courteous nomination than anything else.

Tim Burton fits into a similar category with Ridley Scott, but Burton’s nomination will come as a result of a body of work. He has never received an Academy Award nomination for direction, but Sweeney Todd should result in his first nomination in his distinguished career.

Again, this leaves one slot for Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), and Joe Wright (Atonement). While it would not entirely surprise me to see Wright get a nomination, I feel that Schnabel will get the nomination out of respect for his film and this will be the film’s ultimate merit.

Mike Nichols is left off the ballot because he was given a talented cast with a script from a talented writer.

Best Actor:

George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tom Hanks – Charlie Wilson’s War
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises

Clooney, Day-Lewis, and Depp are locks for this category. This leaves two slots open, one which James McAvoy (Atonement) could very well receive.

Hanks is loved by the Academy and they may figure that his turn as the seedy Congressman is a bit of a digression for him that he admirably pulls off.

I picked Mortensen for the last spot because his performance is so real that it is scary, believable, and the never nominated Mortensen is prime for his first nomination as a spectacular mob member. This will leave Christian Bale (Rescue Dawn) and Denzel Washington (American Gangster) without a nomination, similar to James McAvoy.

Best Actress:

Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley – Atonement
Ellen Page – Juno

Christie, Jolie, and Knightley have been surrounded by Academy Award buzz since their movies hit the cinemas.

Cotillard’s turn as Edith Piaf is being heralded as “revolutionary,” which could see her garner an Oscar nomination. The Golden Globe win really solidified her changes.

Ellen Page will earn her first nomination for Juno, leaving Cate Blanchett on the sidelines for Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Best Supporting Actor:

Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

This category does not have the depth that Best Actor does, as four spots – Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman, and Wilkinson – all seem assured. This leaves one spot, which I think will come down to four people: Paul Dano, Robert Downey Jr., Hal Holbrook, and John Travolta. Ultimately, I think Travolta is ruled out because he is not going to the depths and demonstrating the range that his competitors do. Dano, while great, gets lost in Day-Lewis’ towering performance. Everybody seems to have forgotten about Zodiac (Which should be nominated for numerous awards, but that will not happen). This leaves the soulful Holbrook. His performance is restrained and completely harrowing when we last see him. This should secure him his first ever nomination.

Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Romola Garai – Atonement
Julia Roberts – Charlie Wilson’s War
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

Blanchett, while shut out of the lead category, will garner a Supporting Actress nomination for her portrayal of Bob Dylan.

Roberts and Swinton will receive nominations for their pedigree and receptive reviews of their performances. This allows Amy Ryan to receive a nomination as she capitalizes on all of her critics’ award victories.

This leaves one spot for two actresses, playing the same character. Saoirse Ronan and Romola Garai will battle it out for the final spot, leading me to believe that Garai will get the nomination for her role as the repenting sister in Atonement. Ronan, also deserving, watches as he aged character gets the nomination.

Best Original Screenplay:

Eastern Promises – Steven Knight
I’m Not There – Todd Haynes and Oren Moverman
Juno – Diablo Cody
Knocked Up – Judd Apatow
Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy

Gilroy, Cody, and Knight all seem like lock picks. I chose Haynes and Moverman because their script displays a level of complexity with its interpretation, not to mention the Academy recognizes Haynes from his work on Far from Heaven.

This leaves one spot, which I think Judd Apatow may get a nomination for. Think about it: Successful movie, Hollywood’s “it” guy, well reviewed movie, sharp, edgy, crisp dialogue, what is not to like? If Borat can get a nomination here, Apatow’s script about family coming together is just as worthy.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Atonement – Christopher Hampton
Charlie Wilson’s War – Aaron Sorkin
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men – Ethan and Joel Coen
There Will Be Blood – Paul Thomas Anderson

This category filled itself out. Seriously. I did not have to put any thought into this category.

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Roger Deakins – No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit – There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey – Atonement

A titan of a category featuring multiple past nominees. Deakins receives the rare double nomination for both of his bodies of work. Robert Elswit sealed his nomination with the incredibly shadow play at the train station as the light dances across Daniel Day-Lewis’ face. Janusz Kaminski is being lauded for his unique work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, plus, he is a past winner. Seamus McGarvey joins the group for his steadfast work in Atonement, but mainly for the long tracking shot on the beach at Dunkirk.

Best Art Direction

Ian Bailie – Atonement
David Crank – There Will Be Blood
Dennis Davenport – Hairspray
Dante Ferretti – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Peter Rogness – Across the Universe

I think of this category – along with Costume and Make Up – as the “eccentric category.” Unique visions often receive the awards, but more traditional films can also offer their splendor. Bailie and Crank get nominations for the epic quality of their work. Davenport, Ferretti, and Rogness get nominations for their unique interpretations and creations. Rogness is almost a lock because the Academy likes the flair that Taymor films bring to the table.

Best Costume Design

Marit Allen – Love in the Time of Cholera
Marit Allen – La Vie en Rose
Colleen Atwood – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Jacqueline Durran – Atonement
Albert Wolsky – Across the Universe

Again, with this category, the more decadent, the better. I have another double nominee in Marit Allen for her large scale and elegant creations in La Vie en Rose and Love in the Time of Cholera. Colleen Atwood, a past nominee for her stellar, dark creations. Jacqueline Durran for the scope of the work she did on Atonement. Finally, Albert Wolsky for his quirky creations in Across the Universe.

Best Make Up

Rick Baker – Norbit
Florence Batteault, Sandrine Cirilli, Chloe Van Lierde – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Nana Fisher – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Nana Fisher gets a nomination for her singular vision of people’s hair. Rick Baker always gets a nomination. He is the John Williams of Make Up. I figured that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly’s make up will garner attention for Amalric’s transformation.

Editing

Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Pietro Scalia – American Gangster
Dylan Tichenor – There Will Be Blood
Paul Tothill – Atonement
Juliette Welfling – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I selected the Coen Brothers and Tichenor for having tightly paced films. Even though There Will Be Blood clocks in at over two and a half hours it does not feel it. Scalia is a previous double winner and the Academy has given him four nominations already. Tothill weaves a wonderfully complex film into a masterpiece. I gave the last slot to Welfling because The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is going to get love across the board.

Sound Mixing

Tony Dawe – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Peter J. Devlin – Transformers
Randy Thom – Ratatouille

Sound Editing

David Evans – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn – Transformers
Michael Silvers – Ratatouille

For the sound categories, I picked Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street because musicals tend to do well in these categories and the actual sound effects are quite good in this film. I selected Transformers because I am playing the odds. Every Michael Bay movie – except for The Island – has received Oscar nominations for sound. As for Ratatouille, this is a movie that is going to be overlooked this year in a lot of places it should not be. Is it one of the best films of the year? Absolutely. I think the Academy will try to give this gem nominations where it can get them. Also, Brad Bird’s The Incredibles won an award for sound achievement.

Best Visual Effects

John Fraizer – Transformers
John Fraizer and Allen Hall – Pirates of the Caribbean 3: At World’s End
Trevor Wood – The Golden Compass

Pirates and The Golden Compass receive nominations not because they are groundbreaking, but because they are working on the pedigree of their predecessors. The Golden Compass operates with Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings as its predecessor. Transformers gets a nomination because of the scale of the work. 80 hours of special effects went into a single frame of Transformers.

Best Original Song

Enchanted – “That’s How You Know”
Grace is Gone – “Grace is Gone”
Into the Wild – “Guaranteed”
Love in the Time of Cholera – “Despedida”
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story – “Walk Hard”

I am horrible with this category. These are all the Golden Globe nominees.

Best Original Score

Michael Brook, Kaki King, and Eddie Vedder – Into the Wild
Clint Eastwood – Grace is Gone
Jonny Greenwood – There Will Be Blood
Albert Iglesias – The Kite Runner
Dario Marianelli – Atonement

Again, horrible with this category. All of them were Golden Globe nominees, save Greenwood. His score is a character in There Will Be Blood.

Best Animated Feature

Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

This was a relatively self-explanatory category.

Totals: Atonement- 9, Sweeney Todd- 8, There Will Be Blood-8, No Country For Old Men- 6, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- 5, Michael Clayton- 4, Charlie Wilson's War- 4, Charlie Wilson's War- 4, Juno/Transformers/Ratatouille/Into the Wild- 3

Handicapping the Best Picture Race

Later, Dave and I will be posting predictions for 20 out of 24 Oscar categories (the short films being impossible for anybody, and foreign being crazy obscure this year). For now, these are my thoughts on what to do with Best Picture, which just got a whole lot murkier with Atonement's Golden Globe Win.

The Eat My Hat with A-1 Sauce Lock

No Country For Old Men

The Coen Brothers' masterpiece looks completely unstoppable. Virtually every guild has nominated it, even technical ones like sound mixing and art direction, which points to a sure-bet nomination. There's no question in my mind about this one.

The Proven Contenders

There Will Be Blood

Michael Clayton

Both are looking like pretty safe bets, winning Guild nominations from pretty big indicators like the Director's, Editor's, and Producer's. And they have the numbers one and two candidates for Best Actor, which makes them hard to overlook (Day Lewis leads Clooney by a whole, whole bunch though.)

So that's three pictures on my list. The rest is.. up in the air, to say the least. We've got five movies for two slots, so let's break them down one by one. We'll go alphabetically, to be fair.

Atonement

It's good to remember that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is actually only about a 90 member group. And any member can block the induction of a new one, for any reason, so it's a very odd, exclusive club of people from all over the world. And with the Globe awards themselves robbed of any glamor and ad revenue, and no opportunity for the winners to bask in the speeches and publicity of a victory, Atonement's Best Drama win doesn't seem like it guarantees anything.

The real reason I'm not sure about Atonement, though, is because Joe Wright and company have no Guild support. At all- the director's snubbed them, the producer's left them off, the actors, the editors- just Art Direction and Cinematography. But, the names of all of these guilds end with "...Of America," so it's the foreign members of AMPAS that I think can get this film nominated.

The BAFTAs, the British Oscars, announce nominees tonight (around 3AM EST), and if Atonement leads the field there, I'll have to add it to my five.

The Diving Bell and The Butterfly

I wish I had seen this already. I almost drove to Chicago last weekend, just because it's playing there now, and not in Milwaukee until Febuary 1st. So I'll have to make my Oscar Predictions blind. Either way, it keeps gaining steam in the awards circle- could it be this year's Letters From Iwo Jima?

The Producer's liked it (more than Atonement), the Director's Guild, the Writer's Guild, the Editors and Cinematographers. Julian Schnabel even upended the Coens at the Globes for Best Director. Does this mean it'll edge something else out? Or will will Schnabel's nomination be it's reward?

Into the Wild

This film also puzzles me (I also still haven't seen it, because I just never got up the enthusiasm.) It's got all the Guild Awards that Atonement is missing (Directors, Editing, Writers), but the Producers left it off, and so did the Golden Globes. And I know they're a small group, but they nominated seven movies for Best Drama and not this one. Wha?

But then, Into the Wild and No Country are the only two films of all these to get a Screen Actor's Guild nomination, and actors are the largest voting block of the Academy. So the case for this is strong. I mean, the SAG nominees are never five for five right, but they're never one for five, either.

Juno

Another head scratcher- Producer's Guild yes, Writer's Guild yes, but it loses the Comedy or Musical GG? Will it live up to the way-too-numerous Little Miss Sunshine comparisons and get nominated, or will it only get the Original Screenplay statue it's sure to win? Can a film whose director is completely overshadowed by the film's screenwriter and star (heck, I've even read more about the hamburger phone than Reitman) really score a Best Picture nod?

Some sort of intuition tells me it'll make the field of five for the sake of variety, since it's far different than most of the other front runners in tone, and it's the most commercially succesfull out of all of them. Maybe it pushes out Into the Wild?

Sweeney Todd

Another film in the Atonement boat, with absolutely no love until the Globes win. Does that really mean it gets into the BP race? Without a probable large foreign support, I think not. I can't see this overcoming the multiple snubs of Tim Burton in directing races, and Depp in acting races (at least ones without "Musical or Comedy" categories) to be a strong contender.

For the record, this means I consider other things like American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, and Charlie Wilson's War dead in the water, and not worth breaking down. We'll see what happens when I'm forced to make concrete predictions soon.

Links-

Producer's Guild Nominees
Screen Actor's Guild Nominees
Writer's Guild Nominees
Editor's Guild Nominees
Art Director's Guild Nominees
Cinematography Society's nominees
Cinema Audio Society Nominees
Golden Globe Nominees/Results
BAFTAs Home

Juno Review

For me personally, the back story to Juno is just as compelling as the film itself: Diablo Cody went from blogger to author to screenwriter all because the right person read her work on the internet. Granted, I'm not a former stripper from Minneapolis, but it's inspiring all the same.

And it does deepen one's respect for such an Horatio-Alger like story that her screenwriting debut is nothing if not hilarious. For anyone not prone to the mass marketing campaign, Ellen Page stars as a high schooler who's unhappily pregnant by her best friend Michael Cera. They both play to their best here, although Cera spends most of his time in the fringes despite being relatively important to the film's ending...

(A quick sidenote: where the hell was Michael Cera when I was in high school? People actually find shy, high-voiced awkwardness charming now? Dammit! When I went to high school (from 1998-2002 if you were wondering), I had no idea what was cool but it wasn't nervously looking from side to side and stammering every time you spoke to a girl. Oh well.)

Anyway, Page does a great job herself as a slacker-cynic, who hides even the slightest hint of insecurity with pop culture references and wisecracks. But the strength of Juno is in the ensemble: J. K. Simmons and C. J. Craig (er, Alison Janney) are much more than just stock parents, and Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner even worm their way out of pretty standard roles the yuppie couple seeking to adopt the baby.

And Olivia Thirby plays off Page's steady misanthropy as her best friend (strange but true- the success of Juno has greenlit a movie called Jack and Diane into production, in which Page and Thirby play teenagers who experience a lesbian awakening and fall in love. But Page is leaving the country soon, and their love is threatened. Also she occasionally turns into a werewolf. This is absolutely for real.

I'm sorry, but while we're here I absolutely have to include this excerpt from the director's official website:

When I wrote my first narrative feature, Salt, I wanted to incorporate folklore into the story by adapting an Icelandic legend about a girl who turns into a seal. As I began writing Jack and Diane, I felt a similar instinct to re-visit this theme. Making an American story, it seemed natural to investigate the idea that Diane would turn into a werewolf. What separates the film from the contemporary werewolf genre is that Diane’s werewolf manifestation represents her repressed inability to orgasm. It is an unconscious connection to her sexuality and a part of her love that has never been realized.

I have so many questions about this movie! Is it an elaborate spoof? Why do werewolves "seem natural" to include in an American Story? How on earth does one define the "contemporary werewolf genre"? What is this dude (Bradley Rust Gray) on? Why isn't it titled Teenage Lesbian Werewolf!? Also, will John Cougar Mellencamp sue them for copyright infringement?)

Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah, Juno. Cody's script is peppered with quips and allusions so thoroughly that it might be disaffecting at first, but eventually you get used to it, much like anytime an American actor puts on a British accent. Reitman lets the story do most of the talking (he seems to be a pretty un-flourishy sort of director, since much of Thank You For Smoking's work is done by voice-over straight from the novel it's based on), and the cast is more than willing to flesh out the lines they're given.

A folksy soundtrack, including multiple pieces by Kimya Dawson of The Moldy Peaches, and one Peaches song woven directly into the story, make it a complete experience, and definitely help eating away at the sheen of clever cynicism until the film is almost tugging at your heartstrings.

When to See It: ASAP

Leftover thoughts:

• It's beyond me why this film is referred to as an "indie" movie in most media outlet-type places. It's playing in nearly 2,000 theaters this weekend! It has three pretty well known stars and Jennifer Garner. It's got banners up everywhere (everywhere) I look online. Just because it's a Fox Searchlight Picture and they screened it at a few festivals it's a quirky, independent feature? Not buying it. You neither, Little Miss Sunshine.
• "You should've gone to China, you know, 'cause I hear they give away babies like free iPods. You know, they pretty much just put them in those t-shirt guns and shoot them out at sporting events."
• Very sad that Rainn Wilson had but a couple of minutes long cameo at the beginning, most of which was shown in the trailer.
• Teenage Lesbian Werewolf!

Trailer Report: Lars and the Real Girl, The Kite Runner, Juno

The trailers in front of The Darjeeling Limited: a mixed bag.

Lars and the Real Girl



Meh. I was most interested to see how often the crowd laughed at this one- there was a chuckle when the doll first appears, another one at "she loves kids," and that was it: the joke gets old before the trailer is over.

Add in the unrealistic behavior of the townspeople, the not as poignant as they think it is dialogue with the brother, and it all looks very beige to me.

The Kite Runner



Haven't read the book, but I have this theory: reading an English novel about foreign cultures is all right, because words on a page don't take you out of anything. But a movie about a foreign culture where everyone speaks English all the time is distracting: they can be middling like Memoirs of a Geisha, or terrible like K-19: The Widowmaker.

And with all the slow fades, sweeping shots, gratuitous slow-mo, and music swells in this trailer, it really looks like they've Frank Capra-ized Khaled Hosseini's novel. And that title graphic looks like a Hallmark Original movie title.

Juno



The final entry in the trilogy of pregnancy movies about progressively younger people: first the late twenties country pregnancy Waitress, then the early/mid-twenties LA pregnancy Knocked Up, and finally the teenage pregnancy Juno.

And this looks good. The trailer does anyway, because it relies on the film itself to do the talking, not the Voice Guy or music. The only way to justify the feel-good montage at the end of the trailer is to make us care about the characters in the minute and a half that comes first, and they nail it.

Also, "shenanigans" is a funny word.