Best Picture:
Atonement
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
I would place money on Atonement, Juno, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood.
This leaves one slot for American Gangster, Charlie Wilson’s War, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Michael Clayton, and Sweeney Todd. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is very fresh and not enough people have necessarily seen it. Charlie Wilson’s War and Michael Clayton are being more heralded for their performances and writing than the overall product, while American Gangster seems to have lost a lot of steam amongst the onslaught of late award contender releases.
This leaves Sweeney Todd, a lavish musical featuring stellar performances, a respectable director, and it is based on a musical that is well liked. This film has a lot of similarities to Chicago, though I do not see it winning this award on Oscar night.
Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
The Coen Brothers – No Country for Old Men
Ridley Scott – American Gangster
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Again, the No Country for Old Men juggernaut continues. Paul Thomas Anderson is also a certain bet for a first time Best Director nomination.
Ridley Scott will get the nomination for American Gangster because he is Ridley Scott. Similar to how he achieved one for Black Hawk Down, this is more of a courteous nomination than anything else.
Tim Burton fits into a similar category with Ridley Scott, but Burton’s nomination will come as a result of a body of work. He has never received an Academy Award nomination for direction, but Sweeney Todd should result in his first nomination in his distinguished career.
Again, this leaves one slot for Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), and Joe Wright (Atonement). While it would not entirely surprise me to see Wright get a nomination, I feel that Schnabel will get the nomination out of respect for his film and this will be the film’s ultimate merit.
Mike Nichols is left off the ballot because he was given a talented cast with a script from a talented writer.
Best Actor:
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tom Hanks – Charlie Wilson’s War
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Clooney, Day-Lewis, and Depp are locks for this category. This leaves two slots open, one which James McAvoy (Atonement) could very well receive.
Hanks is loved by the Academy and they may figure that his turn as the seedy Congressman is a bit of a digression for him that he admirably pulls off.
I picked Mortensen for the last spot because his performance is so real that it is scary, believable, and the never nominated Mortensen is prime for his first nomination as a spectacular mob member. This will leave Christian Bale (Rescue Dawn) and Denzel Washington (American Gangster) without a nomination, similar to James McAvoy.
Best Actress:
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley – Atonement
Ellen Page – Juno
Christie, Jolie, and Knightley have been surrounded by Academy Award buzz since their movies hit the cinemas.
Cotillard’s turn as Edith Piaf is being heralded as “revolutionary,” which could see her garner an Oscar nomination. The Golden Globe win really solidified her changes.
Ellen Page will earn her first nomination for Juno, leaving Cate Blanchett on the sidelines for Elizabeth: The Golden Age.
Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
This category does not have the depth that Best Actor does, as four spots – Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman, and Wilkinson – all seem assured. This leaves one spot, which I think will come down to four people: Paul Dano, Robert Downey Jr., Hal Holbrook, and John Travolta. Ultimately, I think Travolta is ruled out because he is not going to the depths and demonstrating the range that his competitors do. Dano, while great, gets lost in Day-Lewis’ towering performance. Everybody seems to have forgotten about Zodiac (Which should be nominated for numerous awards, but that will not happen). This leaves the soulful Holbrook. His performance is restrained and completely harrowing when we last see him. This should secure him his first ever nomination.
Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Romola Garai – Atonement
Julia Roberts – Charlie Wilson’s War
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Blanchett, while shut out of the lead category, will garner a Supporting Actress nomination for her portrayal of Bob Dylan.
Roberts and Swinton will receive nominations for their pedigree and receptive reviews of their performances. This allows Amy Ryan to receive a nomination as she capitalizes on all of her critics’ award victories.
This leaves one spot for two actresses, playing the same character. Saoirse Ronan and Romola Garai will battle it out for the final spot, leading me to believe that Garai will get the nomination for her role as the repenting sister in Atonement. Ronan, also deserving, watches as he aged character gets the nomination.
Best Original Screenplay:
Eastern Promises – Steven Knight
I’m Not There – Todd Haynes and Oren Moverman
Juno – Diablo Cody
Knocked Up – Judd Apatow
Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy
Gilroy, Cody, and Knight all seem like lock picks. I chose Haynes and Moverman because their script displays a level of complexity with its interpretation, not to mention the Academy recognizes Haynes from his work on Far from Heaven.
This leaves one spot, which I think Judd Apatow may get a nomination for. Think about it: Successful movie, Hollywood’s “it” guy, well reviewed movie, sharp, edgy, crisp dialogue, what is not to like? If Borat can get a nomination here, Apatow’s script about family coming together is just as worthy.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Atonement – Christopher Hampton
Charlie Wilson’s War – Aaron Sorkin
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men – Ethan and Joel Coen
There Will Be Blood – Paul Thomas Anderson
This category filled itself out. Seriously. I did not have to put any thought into this category.
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Roger Deakins – No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit – There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey – Atonement
A titan of a category featuring multiple past nominees. Deakins receives the rare double nomination for both of his bodies of work. Robert Elswit sealed his nomination with the incredibly shadow play at the train station as the light dances across Daniel Day-Lewis’ face. Janusz Kaminski is being lauded for his unique work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, plus, he is a past winner. Seamus McGarvey joins the group for his steadfast work in Atonement, but mainly for the long tracking shot on the beach at Dunkirk.
Best Art Direction
Ian Bailie – Atonement
David Crank – There Will Be Blood
Dennis Davenport – Hairspray
Dante Ferretti – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Peter Rogness – Across the Universe
I think of this category – along with Costume and Make Up – as the “eccentric category.” Unique visions often receive the awards, but more traditional films can also offer their splendor. Bailie and Crank get nominations for the epic quality of their work. Davenport, Ferretti, and Rogness get nominations for their unique interpretations and creations. Rogness is almost a lock because the Academy likes the flair that Taymor films bring to the table.
Best Costume Design
Marit Allen – Love in the Time of Cholera
Marit Allen – La Vie en Rose
Colleen Atwood – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Jacqueline Durran – Atonement
Albert Wolsky – Across the Universe
Again, with this category, the more decadent, the better. I have another double nominee in Marit Allen for her large scale and elegant creations in La Vie en Rose and Love in the Time of Cholera. Colleen Atwood, a past nominee for her stellar, dark creations. Jacqueline Durran for the scope of the work she did on Atonement. Finally, Albert Wolsky for his quirky creations in Across the Universe.
Best Make Up
Rick Baker – Norbit
Florence Batteault, Sandrine Cirilli, Chloe Van Lierde – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Nana Fisher – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Nana Fisher gets a nomination for her singular vision of people’s hair. Rick Baker always gets a nomination. He is the John Williams of Make Up. I figured that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly’s make up will garner attention for Amalric’s transformation.
Editing
Ethan and Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Pietro Scalia – American Gangster
Dylan Tichenor – There Will Be Blood
Paul Tothill – Atonement
Juliette Welfling – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
I selected the Coen Brothers and Tichenor for having tightly paced films. Even though There Will Be Blood clocks in at over two and a half hours it does not feel it. Scalia is a previous double winner and the Academy has given him four nominations already. Tothill weaves a wonderfully complex film into a masterpiece. I gave the last slot to Welfling because The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is going to get love across the board.
Sound Mixing
Tony Dawe – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Peter J. Devlin – Transformers
Randy Thom – Ratatouille
Sound Editing
David Evans – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn – Transformers
Michael Silvers – Ratatouille
For the sound categories, I picked Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street because musicals tend to do well in these categories and the actual sound effects are quite good in this film. I selected Transformers because I am playing the odds. Every Michael Bay movie – except for The Island – has received Oscar nominations for sound. As for Ratatouille, this is a movie that is going to be overlooked this year in a lot of places it should not be. Is it one of the best films of the year? Absolutely. I think the Academy will try to give this gem nominations where it can get them. Also, Brad Bird’s The Incredibles won an award for sound achievement.
Best Visual Effects
John Fraizer – Transformers
John Fraizer and Allen Hall – Pirates of the Caribbean 3: At World’s End
Trevor Wood – The Golden Compass
Pirates and The Golden Compass receive nominations not because they are groundbreaking, but because they are working on the pedigree of their predecessors. The Golden Compass operates with Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings as its predecessor. Transformers gets a nomination because of the scale of the work. 80 hours of special effects went into a single frame of Transformers.
Best Original Song
Enchanted – “That’s How You Know”
Grace is Gone – “Grace is Gone”
Into the Wild – “Guaranteed”
Love in the Time of Cholera – “Despedida”
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story – “Walk Hard”
I am horrible with this category. These are all the Golden Globe nominees.
Best Original Score
Michael Brook, Kaki King, and Eddie Vedder – Into the Wild
Clint Eastwood – Grace is Gone
Jonny Greenwood – There Will Be Blood
Albert Iglesias – The Kite Runner
Dario Marianelli – Atonement
Again, horrible with this category. All of them were Golden Globe nominees, save Greenwood. His score is a character in There Will Be Blood.
Best Animated Feature
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
This was a relatively self-explanatory category.
Totals: Atonement- 9, Sweeney Todd- 8, There Will Be Blood-8, No Country For Old Men- 6, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- 5, Michael Clayton- 4, Charlie Wilson's War- 4, Charlie Wilson's War- 4, Juno/Transformers/Ratatouille/Into the Wild- 3
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