2008 Oscar Predictions- Duncan

So it's all come down to this, it seems. Never before have I seen all of the Best Picture nominees, heading into the ceremony. I've read awardsdaily.com, I've read NYT's The Carpetbagger, I've pored over charts and figures, and now I have to put myself on record.

Last year, I went 17 for 24- I missed best animated short because I should have went with my gut, not the experts. I missed Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy because I should have used common sense. I missed Happy Feet over Cars because I underestimated penguins. Otherwise, I missed some unpredictable upsets in cinematography and Foreign Language that nobody saw coming.

What will happen on Sunday? Most of the major categories are locks, except the two actresses. The technical awards are always anybody's guess. And then there are the complete wild cards like documentary short, and best original song.

Well, here's my best guess.

Best Picture

The Winner: No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Michael Clayton

Just for the record, we're doing "Dark Horse" picks this year as potential spoilers, but that doesn't mean I think Michael Clayton has a real chance. Nothing has dominated the awards since like No Country since Return of the King, and we all remember what happened there. There's just no derailing it, but if there were some bizarro world situation where No Country and There Will Be Blood split the vote, then Clayton could emerge from the dust on the strength of it's triple nominated cast.

The love for Michael Clayton has baffled some- I think the Academy misses non-Ocean's movies Steven Soderbergh so much that they'll take the nearest substitute. But I think it's great to see an atmospheric thriller recognized in major categories, which wouldn't have been unusual at all forty years ago.

The Rest:
Juno seems like a paper tiger to me, a gimme nomination for a crowd favorite. I liked it much, much more than it's frequent comparison partner, Little Miss Sunshine, but I have no fear of it stealing the Oscar this year- LMS seemed like a real possibility in 07.

Atonement is definitely an odd case- everyone outside America is head over heels for it-we thought it was okay. I wonder if it was marketed differently (and more effectively) overseas- the overall lukewarm reaction here seems to be from people that expected a sweeping, epic romance, and got instead a lighter, quicker meditation on nuance and authorship. Maybe if people could talk about what I mean by that without giving the ending away, the promotional campaign for the film could have been more direct and original than the standard Knightley/McAvoy looks of longing posters.

There Will Be Blood is brilliant, and definitely the second best film of the five, but I get the feeling that if No Country weren't around, there's no way it would have the award sewn up- the third act has proved too crazy and divisive to make it a real front-runner.

Best Director

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

On the strength of his Golden Globe win, and the general feeling that Diving Bell got the shaft, I was leaning toward predicting a victory for Schnabel here. But his general antipathy for the Awards circuit hasn't helped his image, and the Coens took home the all important DGA award.

The Rest:
Tony Gilroy (Clayton) has the makings of an auteur, but is still a first timer and a longshot. Paul Thomas Anderson (Blood) is earning a reputation as a meticulous filmmaker that can create breathtaking films, but I think his achievement is being far too overshadowed by his star- if he returns to the ensemble format for his next film, I could imagine him easily winning a trophy. Reitman (Juno)? I keep forgetting he was even nominated. Sorry, but it's true.

Best Actor

The Winner: Daniel Day Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: George Clooney- Michael Clayton

Little left to say about this one, really. I sometimes wonder if I'll ever go back to the way I was before last year, when I started following awards news and categories with clear favorites like this one (and Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren last year) lost any surprise. But then I remember how much I love this stuff. Even Clooney admits his loss is a foregone conclusion.

The Rest:
Personally, I was always baffled by Viggo Mortensen's lack of respect for taking what JRR Tolkien wrote as a horribly flat character and making him come alive. Maybe this nomination (for Eastern Promises) is for that trilogy, really. Tommy Lee Jones I'm sure did a wonderful job, but it seems like he got some guilt votes from all the academy members that didn't want to see In the Valley of Elah and get bummed out. Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) gets a nomination for coolness- he won't actually have a chance until he stars in a "serious" film, which is a shame.

Best Actress

The Winner: Julie Christie- Away From Her
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard- La Vie En Rose

But then again, there are still races that are too close to call- But I think Christie breaks a virtual tie with Cotillard on name recognition alone. The surprise adapted screenplay nomination for Away From Her suggests that it's high-profile enough to secure this award.

The Rest:
Laura Linney (The Savages) seems destined for one of those career recognition Oscars in the supporting category someday- she's always a contender, never quite at the top. Ellen Page (Juno) was in a comedy, and you know the rules on that. Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) is the only one here with no shot at all- nobody wins Best Actress for a critically panned flop (I'm sure Dave will look something up to prove me wrong on that, though.)

Supporting Actor

The Winner: Javier Bardem- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford

I've heard some complaints that Bardem is going to take home a statue for mostly being silent, but I don't think that's the case- just because sociopathy is a lack of recognizable human emotions doesn't mean that it's easy to pull off. If it was just someone sleepwalking through a wordless part, the character would be boring, instead of terrifying. Casey Affleck would have a much better chance for his nervy, jangling role in Assassination if, you know, anybody saw it.

The Rest:
Hal Holbrook is apparently a respected film veteran, and kudos to him, but it's quite clear that no one had any patience for Into the Wild for whatever reason. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) just looked surly for a while- this nomination baffles me- really? Someone in an Aaron Sorkin scripted movie was irritable and made wisecracks? No way! And Tom Wilkinson was the heart and soul of Michael Clayton, but I guess he was out-crazied by Bardem.

Supporting Actress
The Winner: Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There
Dark Horse: Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone

I was too lazy to do the "will win" and "should win" distinctions (like Dave did), as this is really the only likely winner I would strongly disagree with. Really? She plays a man, that's awesome. Who cares?

I think it has a lot to do with impersonating someone, versus making an audience believe in a character from scratch. Anne Proulx, in her steaming-mad indictment of the Crash-Brokeback fiasco, touched upon this much more eloquently:

Hollywood loves mimicry, the conversion of a film actor into the spittin' image of a once-living celeb. But which takes more skill, acting a person who strolled the boulevard a few decades ago and who left behind tapes, film, photographs, voice recordings and friends with strong memories, or the construction of characters from imagination and a few cold words on the page? I don't know. The subject never comes up.

This issue might have tipped my choice in Best Actress (Edith Piaf v. fictional character) as well.

The Rest:
Can we all agree to stop nominating old people who are only in two scenes of a film just because they're old? Hey, good for Ruby Dee (American Gangster), I wish her all the best and have nothing but respect for her career. But she barely has time for one note in her cameo role, let alone the several notes that Amy Ryan hit in multiple scenes. Saiorse Ronan holds the first half of Atonement together, but is spared the more challenging scenes of harrowing guilt that the other two actresses in her role had to deal with. Tilda Swinton would be another worthy winner, as she was more fleshed out into a character that the eponymous hero of Michael Clayton.

Best Original Screenplay

The Winner: Diablo Cody- Juno
Dark Horse: Brad Bird- Ratatouille

It would be hard to send home the only Blockbuster among the best picture nominees with absolutely nothing. And since it has zero chance in picture and director, and a teensy sliver of a chance in actress, it seems to have been decided long ago that Cody's script is the place to honor it. Personally, I enjoyed the film, but it seems hard to credit the script without mentioning that it takes a great cast to make all that slang palatable. And it's unique and all, sure, but how is it that much more impressive than, say, Clueless? Brad Bird's newest film is the most lauded animated feature since Beauty and the Beast, and makes me nervous about predicting all five categories it appears in. Everyone loves this film, especially the critical community.

The Rest:
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) and Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) team with Cody for a record number of female screenplay nominees, and more power to all three- Juno seems to be drawing all of the girl power vote though, despite Jenkins' deft human touches. Michael Clayton is tightly written by Tony Gilroy, but the strength of the film is more in the atmosphere and the performances- corrupt businesses and shady lawyers aren't exactly anything new.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Winner: Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Ronald Harwood- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Coens stand to win four statues apiece if everything goes their way, and they're the safest bet in this category, even though the actual writing of the screenplay was mostly done for them by Cormac McCarthy (he doesn't even use quotation marks- they could just scan most of the book and hand it out to people, for crying out loud). Hardwood, a recent winner for The Pianist, had the much more complex job of translating a slim, objectively sparse memoir of a paralyzed man into a sweeping, subjective movie experience - The BAFTA's went with Harwood, but they also went with Atonement for Best Picture...

The Rest:
Sarah Polley (Away From Her) surprised everyone, even one of the movie's biggest fans in yours truly, with a glad-to-be-here fifth nomination in this category. Christopher Hampton (Atonement) also had a weighty task in trimming Ian McEwan's pensive, thoughtful novel of reminiscence into a film with a rapt momentum. Paul Thomas Anderson has himself admitted that the second half of There Will Be Blood has little, if anything to do with Upton Sinclair's Oil!- so while a great script it has little chance at this Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

The Winner: Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Persepolis

It seemed like it would be a tough call, but honestly Ratatouille has been slamming the competition nearly everywhere else- Persepolis came out a little late in the states to turn back the tide, I'm afraid.

Best Documentary Feature

The Winner: No End in Sight
Dark Horse: Taxi to the Dark Side

All about Iraq this year- No End in Sight for the win. But my dark horse is currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of course, I haven't seen any of these, so I could be way off.

Best Foreign Film

The Winner: The Counterfeiters
Dark Horse: Katyn

All anyone knows for sure here is that the loser in this category is international cinema- these nominations make little sense. But the whole Academy votes for this category, so I browsed the subjects and found that Austria's The Counterfeiters is the true story of a Jewish counterfeiter forced to make foreign currency for th Nazis while in a concentration camp. And if you don't think dealing with true stories from the Holocaust is a surefire bet for the win, then you obviously have never watched the Oscars before.

Achievement in Editing

The Winner: Christopher Rouse- The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark Horse: "Roderick Jaynes"- No Country For Old Men

A head scratcher here- The Bourne Ultimatum took the Guild Award, but the traditional march toward Best Picture for No Country would give the Coens( and their pseudonym) the award here. I'm going with the guild in a close call, since they are nearly always right, but if I'm wrong I'll be pissed.

Achievement in Cinematography

The Winner: Janusz Kaminski- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Dark Horse: Roger Deakins- No Country for Old Men

It seems weird to have to pick between Deakins work on No Country and Elswit's on Blood, since the landscape and pallet of the two films aren't very distinguishable to a non-DOP like myself. But since this guild is not a very accurate predictor, it's hard to give Elswit's victory there much weight. My gut is telling me that Janus Kaminski, the prohibitive favorite for his long, uncut shots from Children of Men last year, can't be ignored twice in a row.

Achievement in Makeup

The Winner: Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald- La Vie En Rose
Dark Horse: Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji- Norbit

I'm hoping for the Rose team here based on their BAFTA win recently. Otherwise, with Rick Baker's resume (Six (6!) Makeup Oscars, including the first one in 1981), Norbit may actually win an Academy Award. But seeing as Norbit pretty much lost Eddie Murphy an Oscar for being in theaters during last year's ceremony, I don't think that'll happen.

Achievement in Costuming

The Winner: Jacqueline Durran- Atonement
Dark Horse: Colleen Atwood- Sweeney Todd

Something is telling me that the green dress from Atonement is the only really memorable costume this year- Marit Allen is a threat for La Vie En Rose, but I think Atwood, a recent winner for Memoirs of a Geisha is the next likely bet.

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Winner: Farrar/Benza/Earl/Frazier- Transfomers
Dark Horse: Knoll/Gibson/Hickel/Frazier- Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End

Another agreed-upon lock- I guess they spent a lot of time making robots into cars. Otherwise, the team from Pirates won last year (that Frazier is the same guy, by the way, John Frazier- he's looking as good as Daniel Day Lewis and the Coen's for a statue).

Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Winner: O'Connell/Russell/Devlin- Transformers
Dark Horse: Thom/Semanick/Kane- Ratatouille

Based on recent history, this guild is usually wrong- sorry, No Country team. I say it falls to Kevin O'Connell and his team- now that he has outdone Randy Newman and been nominated for his 20th Oscar without a victory, I think he'll finally get let off the hook. Nobody can be that cruel- right, sound mixers of the world?

Achievement in Sound Editing

The Winner: Silvers/Thom- Ratatouille
Dark Horse: Hopkins/Van Der Ryn- Transformers

The two Best Picture nominees in this category are actually the two without past Oscar wins on the sound teams. I'm saying this will go to the two guys who won a few years ago for The Incredibles- Ratatouille can't walk away with just one Oscar, can it?

Achievement in Art Direction

The Winner: Ferreti/Lo Schiavo- Sweeney Todd
Dark Horse: Greenwood/Spencer- Atonement

This category tends to go to exotic and distinctive contenders, from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to Dick Tracy- and given Sleepy Hollow's win in 1999, I think Sweeney Todd has the best chance for the statue here. The Art Director's Guild went with both The Golden Compass and There Will Be Blood, but they're wrong as often as they're right. Plus, if I didn't disagree with the consensus on something, then my opinion wouldn't really mean anything, would it?

Best Animated Short

The Winner: My Love
Dark Horse: I Met the Walrus

See here.

Best Live Action Short

The Winner: At Night
Dark Horse: The Mozart of Pickpockets

This category I reserve the right to change after I see the shorts tomorrow night.

Best Documentary Short

The Winner: Sari's Mother
Dark Horse: Freeheld

See here.

Best Original Score

The Winner: Dario Marianelli- Atonement
Dark Horse: Michael Giacchino- Ratatouille

A seeming lock for Marianelli since Greenwood's There Will Be Blood score wasn't eligible. But again, Ratatouille scares me in every category.

Best Original Song

The Winner: Hansard/Irglova- "Falling Slowly" from Once
Dark Horse: Menken/Schwartz- "So Close" from Enchanted

The most important award for me. See here.

But the hands down most awesome part about this year's Oscar ceremony is knowing that Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova are going to perform "Falling Slowly" in front of 40 million viewers, and then watch the sales of Once and its soundtrack skyrocket.

So that it's. All 24. I'll be watching on Sunday, and cursing like a sports fan when the announcements go against me. How this post, which could have been just a list, grew to nearly 3,000 words I have no idea. But thanks for reading.

My totals for, the curious- No Country wins 4, Ratatouille, Atonement, and Transformers win 2, and then 14 other films (including Juno, Diving Bell, and Blood) win one apiece. A big goose egg for Michael Clayton, alas.